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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,641
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:52am Mar 2, 2011 6:52am
So far another day of much less that the normal ADR's for EU and GU... see if ADP and Bernanke can give these pairs a boot.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,642
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:58am Mar 2, 2011 6:58am
Futures shows it pretty well - decreasing volume on the down move. I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest ADP pushes us right through any lingering supply and northwards
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,643
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:04am Mar 2, 2011 7:04am
Quoting Steve Gill
Futures shows it pretty well - decreasing volume on the down move. I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest ADP pushes us right through any lingering supply and northwards
I was just looking at this as well. Not on the futures, but take the 15 / 20min Euro charts. Devoid of any volume on the small down move.
  • #14,644
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:11am Mar 2, 2011 7:11am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I was just looking at this as well. Not on the futures, but take the 15 / 20min Euro charts. Devoid of any volume on the small down move.
Also been looking at this want it to come down to near 800. Right now its abit close to resistance. And sellers are gone but buyers havnt shown up yet. So want it to go a bit lower. Might also have a shakeout on this move.
  • #14,645
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:36am Mar 2, 2011 7:36am
Trailing stop triggered with +12 pips. waiting for testing supply and find long entry.

Quoting polomine
What i see in gbp/usd m10 is weakness. But be careful, since prior to ADP news.
  • #14,646
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:36am Mar 2, 2011 7:36am
weakness did not show up at 1,3780 , trade was not valid.

In fact london just ripped it back thru there

I getting more and more bullish eu for March , 1.42 to 1.45 potential .

They are drying up all supply for 2 weeks now. This can only lead to a large move

Quoting Mtm
smaller TF traders would still buy into that... seems like they are going back to the top , to distribute further..?

-----------------------------


Hi Mal, i was looking to see if there was sign of weakness / nd into the 1.3780 area, because i also thought i saw weakness at that previous level on M15... now that the price goes through that 1.3780 level, the weakness spotted previously becomes invalid already?

or is it that the weakness spotted at the previous 1.3780 was only just enough to take price to 1.3742..?,...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,647
  • Edited 7:50am Mar 2, 2011 7:40am | Edited 7:50am
Hi guys here's my trade.
feel free to comment or correct me if i am wrong,
still new and learning

saw price dipped down and a high volume bar.
which was climax low.
looked at the next m5 candle which was an upbar with high volume
so thereby confirming the stopping volume.

entered long at 1.3811 and stacked longs along the way.
exited most trades and left 1 position stop at BE.

EDIT:
POP!
EU tested new high of 1.3862.
closed my longs too early...
oh well. still have one position running
will try to reload on retrace. $$$
Attached Image
  • #14,648
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:54am Mar 2, 2011 7:54am
Quoting pres78
Trade I took just before LO... I had the chart all pulled and marked up to post but the baby woke up and I had to go...

1. Highest volume 5 min bar so far today, possible trigger
2. First test of this trigger
3. 3AM my time (1hr before LO) when I got up
4. Another higher volume test of the trigger level still unable to make lower lows... Entered on break of this bar.

Entry 3752, SL nice and tight at daily low 3741, TP 1 at 3762, TP 2 is set at 3842 just shy of that stubborn 3850.

As of right now we have come close (3839) but it hasn't hit....
TP 2 hit for this first trades lot 2...

Added another long off the 2 bar shake out, trigger level from shake out and test of the trigger. Will keep an eye on 3850 TP target is shy of ADR at 3865. Entry 3820, SL 3800.

Well that happened fast... TP hit. Done for the day.

1. 2 bar shake out
2. Low Vol Test of trigger
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,649
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:03am Mar 2, 2011 8:03am
Last 15 min EU bar closed as an upthrust on very high vol... see what unfolds over the next few bars... Bernanke speech in an hour...

We could possibly see a retrace down into 3820-3800 area.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,650
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:17am Mar 2, 2011 8:17am
Quoting pres78
Last 15 min EU bar closed as an upthrust on very high vol... see what unfolds over the next few bars... Bernanke speech in an hour...

We could possibly see a retrace down into 3820-3800 area.
Next bar closed up... strength may still be present.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,651
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:27am Mar 2, 2011 8:27am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Like this trade and am long myself, added at 3755.
Still long, trichet this week still and nfp. They are toying with traders now taking out stops and accounts, 3880 goes and 1.4 should be tested.
  • #14,652
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:04am Mar 2, 2011 9:04am
Quoting pres78
Trade I took just before LO... I had the chart all pulled and marked up to post but the baby woke up and I had to go...

1. Highest volume 5 min bar so far today, possible trigger
2. First test of this trigger
3. 3AM my time (1hr before LO) when I got up
4. Another higher volume test of the trigger level still unable to make lower lows... Entered on break of this bar.

Entry 3752, SL nice and tight at daily low 3741, TP 1 at 3762, TP 2 is set at 3842 just shy of that stubborn 3850.

As of right now we have come close (3839) but it hasn't hit....
Very nice. Better SL placement. Better still is 2 pips below the swing low @3739. Dont forget to add in your spread to the 1:1.
  • #14,653
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:08am Mar 2, 2011 9:08am
Quoting pres78
TP 2 hit for this first trades lot 2...

Added another long off the 2 bar shake out, trigger level from shake out and test of the trigger. Will keep an eye on 3850 TP target is shy of ADR at 3865. Entry 3820, SL 3800.

Well that happened fast... TP hit. Done for the day.

1. 2 bar shake out
2. Low Vol Test of trigger
Your 2 bar SO is not such. The 2nd bar however, is a SO on it's own(would like to see it close a little higher up its spread but its ok in that scenario)
  • #14,654
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:09am Mar 2, 2011 9:09am
Quoting pres78
Next bar closed up... strength may still be present.
I guess this turned out to be a good example of an upthrust in the wrong place will quickly get tested and taken out if strength is still present. The downmove was on lowering volume and the two upbars prior to the upthrust closed near the highs and were on increasing vol... strength, not weakness prior to upthrust.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,655
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:10am Mar 2, 2011 9:10am
Quoting pres78
TP 2 hit for this first trades lot 2...

Added another long off the 2 bar shake out, trigger level from shake out and test of the trigger. Will keep an eye on 3850 TP target is shy of ADR at 3865. Entry 3820, SL 3800.

Well that happened fast... TP hit. Done for the day.

1. 2 bar shake out
2. Low Vol Test of trigger
Just noticed, your bars have lots of gaps between each bar, why?
  • #14,656
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:15am Mar 2, 2011 9:15am
Quoting Intel
Your 2 bar SO is not such. The 2nd bar however, is a SO on it's own(would like to see it close a little higher up its spread but its ok in that scenario)
Ah OK... still struggle with the right termanolgy sometimes but I seem to get myself into the right general area anyway with regards to what I am seeing on the charts. Yes I do take into account spread for SL and TP's I just usually call out the actual number that the SL or TP was based on for simplicity sake.

So would you look at the first bar as being stopping vol, followed by what is close to being a SO?

When would you consider two bars as being a 2 bar reversal or SO?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,657
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:20am Mar 2, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Intel
Just noticed, your bars have lots of gaps between each bar, why?
Could be because I am zoomed in perhaps? Not sure what you mean by lots of gaps.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,658
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:28am Mar 2, 2011 9:28am
Quoting pres78
Could be because I am zoomed in perhaps? Not sure what you mean by lots of gaps.
Your bars dont open at the close price of the previous bar.
  • #14,659
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:30am Mar 2, 2011 9:30am
Quoting Intel
Your bars dont open at the close price of the previous bar.
Ah never really noticed that before... must be some lag in my brokers feed versus the actual price movements when transitioning from bar to bar.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,660
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:39am Mar 2, 2011 9:39am
S&P taking out some shorts. Euro gunning for 3900 stops. I think today took some traders by surprise.
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