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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,521
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:13pm Mar 1, 2011 12:13pm
agreed , but do not forget that rising oil will hold eu up even if that weakness is there.

I tried a sell off 1.3830 as they seem to be wanting to dry up supply , was hoping for 40 to 50 pip , not quiet there yet

the supply is there for sure , but euro has not really had a reaction to it so far.

Quoting ukdaytrader
Can anyone else see slight signs of weakness on the 15m TF? It's early I realise, but the increased volumes have not brought about a test of resistance. And background would suggest this is a key area.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,522
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:15pm Mar 1, 2011 12:15pm
what do USDJPY and HARD SHYT have in common ?

lol they are both pieces of poo .....

I hate usdjpy

Quoting foxybunny
I am still figuring out how to read USD/JPY using VSA, more correctly how to just read USD/JPY.
This is not in my currency basket, I do prefer EUR/JPY.

Let me know when you can read USD/JPY.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,523
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:15pm Mar 1, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting pres78
Does anyone trade 2 bar reversals / 2 bar shake outs? Does one still need to wait for a test or ND/NS after the 2 bar reversal or does another upbar in uptrend or downbar in uptrend suffice for entry?
It's better to not trade the reversal, but to wait for the NS, Test or ND after the reversal. See chart. (Realtime)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #14,524
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:20pm Mar 1, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting HiddenGap
It's better to not trade the reversal, but to wait for the NS, Test or ND after the reversal. See chart. (Realtime)
Yes Intel metioned to treat them just like SO or upthrusts... Thanks for the chart with the clear example.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,525
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:22pm Mar 1, 2011 12:22pm
3800 is key

it was the close of the london / us session 12 hour upthrust bar yesterday.

If this fails then we can expect 1,3750 test .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,526
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:57pm Mar 1, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting pres78
Didn't take the long trade that presented itself around 35mins after LO as NS simply because my entry was at 3820 and the swing low for my stop at the shake out would have been at 3785... This is a 35 pip stop loss and with that tough 3850 level less than that away I felt it was not worth the risk ATM. I have just entered a long trade off the 5min NS marked after 2 upbars after a bounce around that 3800 level followed by the NS. Entry at 3815 and putting tight SL at 3795. TP 1 at 3835 and TP 2 at 3850.

Risky entry however as I am still below the...
A few comments. The SO was on less volume than the previous 2 bars so the trade was indeed risky. However the rest of the entry was good. Your SL tho, even for a risky SO could have been better. Had you put this in the correct place, your 1:1 would have been hit on the AR. This leaves you in the wonderful position of being free to trade the rest of the up move.

We know that when price bounces like it did in your trade (where you entered) we sometimes go straight up. But very often, it will have a short move up, then come back down (normally to test the bottom area) then make the rest of the up move. HG BTW, often uses the test area as his normal entry as he believes it is more reliable, and is probably the best way for most people to trade.

The reason I use a 1:1 on these trades is because the AR (1st shorter up move) often hits the TP. It then doesn't matter if the full up move doesn't materialise. However, if on the test move, we get another good entry signal, we can enter again! If we do enter a second time we MUST use the same SL not a new one because the SO is still the waves turning point and is still our valid low. The 2nd entry will often have a larger DD than the first because the reversal point is less obvious most times, which means we may enter a little early.

A point to note, if the 2nd 1:1 TP is higher than the recent high to the left, ALWAYS adjust so it is lower.
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  • #14,527
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:02pm Mar 1, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting Intel
Hey good to see you back. Don't stay away for so long!!
Thanks and trust that you're well and still plundering pips

Both Medici and I found - I guess like Malcolm - that real time posting and updating your own thread impacts on your own trading and so I took a break from posting.

However, I do like this new indy that bandung developed, hence the posts today.

Now, we're at todays POC - also last Wednesday's high - and I'm holding short for another visit to the area of yesterday's POC where I'll bank another chestfull of pirated pips .....well that's the idea!!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,528
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:03pm Mar 1, 2011 1:03pm
DXH1 30M chart No Supply Test. (<Rant> The value of chart patterns to the big capital smart money enterprises that run these FX markets lies in their ability to manipulate the herd into mostly long or short positions with obvious places on the chart where smaller trading entities can "logically" place their stops. Huge numbers of stops that can be run represent vast amounts of money to be harvested from those who use traditional technical of fundamental analysis. Patterns like heads and shoulders or ascending wedges or bear/bull flags mean easy money for the big banks that are the market makers of the Interbank Network. </Rant>)
**************
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  • #14,529
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:09pm Mar 1, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
what do USDJPY and HARD SHYT have in common ?

lol they are both pieces of poo .....

I hate usdjpy
Both need a dose of prune juice
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,530
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:09pm Mar 1, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting Islander
Thanks and trust that you're well and still plundering pips

Both Medici and I found - I guess like Malcolm - that real time posting and updating your own thread impacts on your own trading and so I took a break from posting.

However, I do like this new indy that bandung developed, hence the posts today.

Now, we're at todays POC - also last Wednesday's high - and I'm holding short for another visit to the area of yesterday's POC where I'll bank another chestfull of pirated pips .....well that's the idea!!
Good man....more power to your elbow
  • #14,531
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:10pm Mar 1, 2011 1:10pm
Interesting PA and price point on EU & GU here at 2pm NY time. The talk of big sterling purchases (800 mil) not being able to maintain price at the high point, the wicks & reversals now left on the higher timeframe I bet are moving algos into the camp of selling - that's what we've seen in the this hourly close, with NS moves not really materializing.

Will be interesting to see where the 5pm close gets to - 1.382 seems like a stretch and given today's range I think 1.377 has a reasonable chance of materializing - one would expect the buyers to still be there, but it's seems rather uphillish given the lack of bounce so far. S&P is seeing a grind down, gold up, USD (maybe) up & talk of risk aversion off. Daily looking like strength is getting distributed - what a day - if only they sent out a memo to play the range, lol!
  • #14,532
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:14pm Mar 1, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting Intel
A few comments. The SO was on less volume than the previous 2 bars so the trade was indeed risky. However the rest of the entry was good. Your SL tho, even for a risky SO could have been better. Had you put this in the correct place, your 1:1 would have been hit on the AR. This leaves you in the wonderful position of being free to trade the rest of the up move.

We know that when price bounces like it did in your trade (where you entered) we sometimes go straight up. But very often, it will have a short move up, then come back down (normally to...
What do you consider the bar you marked as "or on close here" as? And why would it by itself signal an entry? Is that marked bar the test that you mention HG trades and would enter off of? I always have a bit of a time deciding on whether a bar is a test based on volume...

Many thanks for your comments and great insights into the trade I took today.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,533
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:15pm Mar 1, 2011 1:15pm
pull up daily dx

Quoting rbumbalough
DXH1 30M chart No Supply Test. (<Rant> The value of chart patterns to the big capital smart money enterprises that run these FX markets lies in their ability to manipulate the herd into mostly long or short positions with obvious places on the chart where smaller trading entities can "logically" place their stops. Huge numbers of stops that can be run represent vast amounts of money to be harvested from those who use traditional technical of fundamental analysis. Patterns like heads and shoulders or ascending wedges or bear/bull flags mean easy...
  • #14,534
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:17pm Mar 1, 2011 1:17pm
we are below the lows and it looks very well to become a nd again. ouch #2

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
invitation to the bears- no demand at support in a downtrend.

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/3...0228100558.png
  • #14,535
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:50pm Mar 1, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
3800 is key

it was the close of the london / us session 12 hour upthrust bar yesterday.

If this fails then we can expect 1,3750 test .

Wow Mal you're on top of the ball these days!
  • #14,536
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:50pm Mar 1, 2011 1:50pm
Huge shake out on EU. I think it found support @3760 like it did yesterday before decent up move.

Some grazy moves and the puddle of Carribba Rum tomorrow
  • #14,537
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:51pm Mar 1, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting Beljevina
Will be interesting to see where the 5pm close gets to - 1.382 seems like a stretch and given today's range I think 1.377 has a reasonable chance of materializing - one would expect the buyers to still be there, but it's seems rather uphillish given the lack of bounce so far. S&P is seeing a grind down, gold up, USD (maybe) up & talk of risk aversion off. Daily looking like strength is getting distributed - what a day - if only they sent out a memo to play the range, lol!
Holy flyin' bear city, Batman! Didn't expect 40 pips post-2pm in <45min - haven't had that for a while, and still going. Finally some pips paying for the day.

Bloomberg's awash with negativity, ie., Saudi Arabia's market tankage, & all that other stuff I mentioned.

Should bounce here (1.376 TL seculative scalp for me @ BE) , but a <1.38 close is upon us & more downside testing.

And the real reason for my post: sometimes those upthrusts and the associated volume don't lie - I think that was the case here - note to self: KISS. And looking back, I'm seeing NDs on the all important M30 & M60.
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  • #14,538
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:59pm Mar 1, 2011 1:59pm
hard shyt ...trades called before they happen . I still made 200,000,000 pips off a 50 pip move though

Quoting malcolmb14
3800 is key

it was the close of the london / us session 12 hour upthrust bar yesterday.

If this fails then we can expect 1,3750 test .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,539
  • Mar 1, 2011 2:01pm Mar 1, 2011 2:01pm
No I am HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER

all winning trades called not taken as i can only take ones that get me -400 pip 1st before closing for + 10



Quoting sidhujag
Wow Mal you're on top of the ball these days!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,540
  • Mar 1, 2011 2:02pm Mar 1, 2011 2:02pm
If only it wasn't for the time of day... What a nice and easy set-up (well in my eyes anyway). We had been in a downmove from 3835 but I figured that since London closed up we would just drift down to 3800 and move sieways. Just brought up a 5min chart after seeing others posting that we had moved down into 3760...

Look at how nice that 3 br set-up is... we already had weakness confirmed in the background.

1. increased volume as we head back towards the PAL, are we heading back up from 3800
2. bigger increase in vol with very little result
3. ND right at the PAL, entry would have been on the very next bar

You could have gotten in with a tight 10 pip SL for a 4:1 gain.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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