600 trades is nothing, especially on the one minute time-frame. Maybe if...
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I have no experience to talk of and in general it is clearly desirable that a strategy is tested in all market conditions, but I wonder whether there may be some shorter time frames where the market dynamics may be more independent of the main fundamental factors. For instance, on the minute to hourly level is it more likely to be about the short term supply and demand dynamics rather than where people think the price should be heading? - Just a question based on my suspicion rather than any real evidence.
I have no experience to talk of and in general it is clearly desirable that a strategy is tested in all market conditions, but I wonder whether there may be some shorter time frames where the market dynamics may be more independent of the main fundamental factors. For instance, on the minute to hourly level is it more likely to be about the short term supply and demand dynamics rather than where people think the price should be heading? - Just a question based on my suspicion rather than any real evidence.
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best example: eur/chf february - may 2010.
Totally different PA and market than we are now in. Similar things go for other pairs.
i have heard that a scalping is the most profitable way of trading, but who knows if it really is. Isnt more profitable strategy based on 4H TF than 1min TF? Or another words, which TF is generally the most profitable?
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Well according to my experience and point of view i consider 4-hour tf as most reliable and efficient tf ,,, You will get good results as compared to lower tf ,,, In lower tf most likely you will get fake trades ,,,
Ok thanks for your opinions probably you are right, everyone...
So if I have the same initial capital, and if i use the same risk 1-2% to both 4h and 1min TF, in yours opinion will be the monthly reward bigger on 4h TF than 1min TF?
I always feel that you need a big account to trade on higher timeframes, because you need bigger stop loss and more margin to afford the swings and leave the trade open for long time.
While on lower timeframes, you can trade and scalp with micro account intraday all the time.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Ok thanks for your opinions probably you are right, everyone...
So if I have the same initial capital, and if i use the same risk 1-2% to both 4h and 1min TF, in yours opinion will be the monthly reward bigger on 4h TF than 1min TF?
i am curious, thanks ;-)
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There are at least 5 possible variables that determine bottom line:
1) Profit factor, i.e. the product of (i) win rate, and (ii) avg win size to avg loss size. This is ultimately determined by the efficacy of your entries and exits.
2) MM. Includes position size, or risk per trade; and how frequently you're compounding, etc.
3) Trading frequency, e.g. avg number of trades per week.
4) Capitalization. Obviously affects absolute $ return, but has minimal impact on % return.
5) Psychology and other 'intangibles'.
If we're talking about annual % return, then (1) and (5) determine whether you're a winning or losing trader, (2) has the biggest impact on HOW MUCH you win or lose, and (3) determines your RATE of return (or drawdown).
If you're trading M1 horizons, then everything else being equal, your trading frequency will likely be massively greater than if you trade H4, and therefore - if you're compounding after each trade - you'll win (or lose) more at an accelerated rate. But everything else might not necessarily be equal, e.g. maintaining a profit factor > 1 might be significantly more difficult.
The bottom line is that it's difficult to provide a generalized answer as it depends on a number of variables, including the trader himself.
Im new here, have been following FF for quite a few years but never wanted to become a member… maybe someday I'll just disappear.
In my experience (personal) there is not such thing as a “best” or “most profitable” TF.
If higher TF were better, then many people would be making money, but it’s public knowledge that 80-90% of the masses are consistent losers on a constant basis, no mater what TF they trade in.
TF’s it’s just the way humans fragment the price action, there’s other ways of fragmenting PA: range bars, renko etc… those just take in consideration movement and not time. I’m definitely not encouraging to trade with those, just making the point clear here: a TF is just a way HUMAN fragment the PA.
If the price make a 100 pips move in H4 it’s obvious that the price also moved 100 pips in M1, M5, M15, Daly, Weekly and Monthly… if H4 was statistically better TF than M1 then if two traders enter the exact same trades at the exact same prices, one in H4 and the other in M1, sadistically speaking the H4 trader would have better “odds” than the M1 trader, and this is 100% impossible.
TF is irrelevant to the movement, you draw a line in M1 and H4 at the same price level and when the price is 20 pips over the line in M1 it will be 20 pips over the H4 line as well.
The mass will always search for a “good” leader, and follow the leader… TF and graphs are the leaders of most of traders, that’s why 80-90% of traders just lose money, they become part of a mass and adopt the mass believes: this TF is better over this one, this pattern is better over this one… don’t want to offend anybody here, nor contradict or impose my personal point of view, but when you look at the real data, TF become 100% irrelevant.
And no, I will not tell you what the real data is, so don’t ask… work a little on your own!
