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  • #3,321
  • Feb 28, 2011 6:06am Feb 28, 2011 6:06am
Hope you don't mind me posting some of my charts LJ,

NU - here's what i had, i was looking for the same trade but closer to the 60 fib (i need to get better at pin pointing an entry). drilling to to the 4hr i can see there was a clear ppz at the 7550 area - was this where and why you entered?

EA - I didn't take this one as i went long EU last night for some nice profit - however i'm interested to know more about the chinese news and where you get this info from.

GJ - i have an order to sell at 133.23 - i'm thinking it could be too high, do you have any thoughts?

CJ - This looks nice as well

EG - all nice levels and nice fib confluence but which one stands out most to you and why?

hope you don't mind me asking and comparing. really enjoying your thread!
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  • #3,322
  • Feb 28, 2011 6:24am Feb 28, 2011 6:24am
Quoting Majestic12
Hope you don't mind me posting some of my charts LJ,

NU - here's what i had, i was looking for the same trade but closer to the 60 fib (i need to get better at pin pointing an entry). drilling to to the 4hr i can see there was a clear ppz at the 7550 area - was this where and why you entered?

EA - I didn't take this one as i went long EU last night for some nice profit - however i'm interested to know more about the chinese news and where you get this info from.

GJ - i have an order to sell at 133.23 - i'm thinking it could be too high, do you...
NU - yes the clear flip to me appeared near the 7550 area within the fib zone so I entered a few pips below.

GJ and CJ - I have the same areas marked up too and am watching closely, with jpy pairs I prefer it when YM/EP are giving additional confluence (which they are not right now) and when all JPY pairs are lined up together...CAD news in a bit could cause a spike, not sure what I will do with these yet but my I would most likely wait to see what is happening across other JPY pairs, UJ and YM/EP too. But if GJ and CJ are both lining up at the same time I'll most likely take a trade.

EA - news that China will pursue slower growth in coming years was the additional confluence that was always likely to weigh on AUD...think I saw this one on dailyfx feed but I watch several.

EG - Don't like this...it s a very choppy pair in a wedge and those PPZ's just dont stand out so I would prefer to look for trades at the wedge extremes etc.

Nice on on EU, I went long ECHF instead.
  • #3,323
  • Edited 7:18am Feb 28, 2011 6:50am | Edited 7:18am
Thanks, so if xxxjpy is approaching resistance you look for ep and ym approaching support?

Could you link me up some news feeds, your inspiring me to play closer attention to fundies - trouble i realy would not know how to interpret the information and i don't want it to make me second guess decisions. i suppose you just have to try and take bits of information incrementally until you get a 'sense' of whats going on like you have. i would appreciate any advise you have in this area. i have seen talking forex which looks quite good and you get 1 free month there as well.

much appreciated LJ and nice trading so far this week
  • #3,324
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:53am Feb 28, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Majestic12
Thanks, so if xxxjpy is approaching resistance you look for ep and ym approaching support?

Could you link me up some news feeds, your inspiring me to play closer attention to fundies - trouble i realy would not know how to interpret the information and i don't want it to make me second guess decisions. i suppose you just have to try and take bits of information incrementally until you get a 'sense' of whats going on like you have. i would appreciate any advise you have in this area. i have seen talking forex which looks quite good and you get 1...
I don't pay for any news feeds, I just watch CNBC and have the dailyfx and forexlive feeds open so I can hear any important economic data / sudden news. The China news I got well after the event (as I was asleep) but it made sense to me that this would additional confluence for expectations that AUD would most likely weaken this morning against the Euro combined with the technical setup.

I don't trade news but I use some general news / risk appetite as confluence to technical setups.
  • #3,325
  • Feb 28, 2011 1:08pm Feb 28, 2011 1:08pm
  •  kk21
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: ...the innocent bystander | 45 Posts
Quoting lovejoy80

EA - news that China will pursue slower growth in coming years was the additional confluence that was always likely to weigh on AUD...think I saw this one on dailyfx feed but I watch several.

hi LJ,
can you kindly list some of the news feeds you use; i watch only dailyfx for now-and it was gotten from your post!

many are completely unaware of the improvement fundamental confluence can bring to bear on their trading; i just found out

really grateful for the assistance you provide here by letting us into how u view, analyze and play the market. like Newton said, its like standing on the shoulders of giants.

many more pips to you!
  • #3,326
  • Feb 28, 2011 1:45pm Feb 28, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting kk21
hi LJ,
can you kindly list some of the news feeds you use; i watch only dailyfx for now-and it was gotten from your post!

many are completely unaware of the improvement fundamental confluence can bring to bear on their trading; i just found out

really grateful for the assistance you provide here by letting us into how u view, analyze and play the market. like Newton said, its like standing on the shoulders of giants.

many more pips to you!
I menioned all the ones I use in my previous post. I watch/listen to CNBC for live data announcements as they cover the major ones (apart from Canada as they dont seem to acknowledge Canada exists!) and use DailyFX news feed and Forex Live (via tweetdeck) for ongoing news released during the day.

I'm not a news trader as such so don't need insitutional style access as most of the time I'm just interested in current risk sentiment over the short term (days) and data / news can help in determining this...as certain news released can determine the sentiment towards a specific pair which can affect other correlated pairs etc.

For example, if China state they are tightening their monetary policy this is generally perceived to be negative for growth and thus the biggest FX currency this will likely affect is the AUD and thus I'd perceive AUD likely to be weaker than other majors (all other things being equal) and would bear this in mind if technical setups presented themselves on AUD against the majors as it's additional confluence.

Events like the Middle East sitation which came to the fore last week is a different story as I would just ignore technicals to an extent and buy CHF, JPY, Gold and Oil and sell equities which is pretty much what I did most of last week starting with some specualtive trades then adding when technical setups presented themselves.

The major things I look out for at the moment are with regards the potential for interest rate hikes in the UK and Eurozone, so any mention of inflationary pressures or of potential for interest rate hikes by ECB or BOE and that would dictate the short term expected direction and thus if I had a long GU or EU technical setup this would be additional fundamental confluence. The same with the US and QE2...any signs of increasing inflationary pressures, improving economic data and they might just might signal their intent to reduce the amount of QE2 or finish the program earlier which is fundamentally bullish the USD ... thus this gives me a short term fundamental bias etc.

The actual fundamentals I follow are pretty basic economics but the important point is understanding how us humans react to news/data (e.g. how we react to bearish news like the Middle East...events like this are a recurring pattern over and over again etc in terms of 'our' reaction) and using that accordingly as confluence in technical analysis setups...something I think can be a powerul confluence at times.
  • #3,327
  • Mar 1, 2011 2:47am Mar 1, 2011 2:47am
  •  kk21
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: ...the innocent bystander | 45 Posts
Quoting lovejoy80
I menioned all the ones I use in my previous post. I watch/listen to CNBC for live data announcements as they cover the major ones (apart from Canada as they dont seem to acknowledge Canada exists!) and use DailyFX news feed and Forex Live (via tweetdeck) for ongoing news released during the day.........


oh, i am sorry for the repetition, didn't see Majestic's post before asking.

thanks all the same for taking the time to explain further in detail.
  • #3,328
  • Mar 1, 2011 10:53am Mar 1, 2011 10:53am
Hi Lovejoy, would you class this as a good setup?
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  • #3,329
  • Mar 1, 2011 11:13am Mar 1, 2011 11:13am
Quoting Majestic12
Hi Lovejoy, would you class this as a good setup?
This is the EXACT set-up I was looking at this morning. I considered it due to the .82 level being a pretty good recent PPZ. The way price closed above this level and came back down to it make it interesting. And I could have made like 20 pips, but I passed on it for the following reasons...

#1) It is against both the long term and short term trend. I think the USDJPY will grind northward eventually, but it will take a while and will not be an easy environment to trade for a while.

#2) I think LoveJoy often draws his fibs from the most recent swing, and in this case the .82 would be well below the 61.8% Fib. Almost as if the pair wants to double bottom at around .8150 to .81, and then will move up.

#3) With all the uncertainity in the middle east, it is tough to want to go long on the USD and short on JPY.

Had it given a strong 4H P/A signal, I would have gotten in.
  • #3,330
  • Mar 1, 2011 11:20am Mar 1, 2011 11:20am
I'm long currently for a small 'feeler' stake. Interesting points though - didn't know that about the most recent swing - that would be good to get confirmation of - is the recent swing a more valid fib then?

I did bear in mind about the middle east but my thought process was that the us dollar is a risk aversion currency as well as the yen.

Agree about the longer term trend - that is something i should have considered more.
  • #3,331
  • Mar 1, 2011 11:52am Mar 1, 2011 11:52am
I took the retracement back to 82 earlier...took half profit at the FTA and rest got stopped out at BE.

I considered the second touch trade but decided to wait for some PA and then consider it.

With regards the trend, the weekly trend is clearly down but on the daily we are in a wedge and near support so looking for a long setup has some good potential in terms of where it could go.

But remember what happened last week in times of risk aversion...JPY and CHF strengthened much stronger than the USD so this would be a concern, but with so much event risk around this week anything could happen and the USD could easily gain some bullish momentum from somewhere.
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  • #3,332
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:16pm Mar 1, 2011 12:16pm
Ah, beautiful wedge on the daily USDJPY. I just saw the recent strong down move in the USDJPY and ingored the fact it had actually not made a lower low (it might still, but not yet).

I was watching CNBC this morning, just for the macro-economics you pointed out LJ. Pretty great idea. Not that I took a trade, but listening to the bad news in the middle east that seems to only get worse helped in me deciding to not go long USD v. the JPY yet.
  • #3,333
  • Mar 2, 2011 4:11am Mar 2, 2011 4:11am
Quoting lovejoy80
I actually changed my mind and decided I would take the EAUD setup due to some fundamental confluence arising out of China overnight plus with AU being near its weekly resistance area...but my pending order was not hit this morning.

I did take this setup though.
Needed some patience with this one but it's working out well so far, expecting a small retracement before a further push down hopefully, either way my SL has been moved down to lock in profit and TP set
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  • #3,334
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:34am Mar 2, 2011 6:34am
Quoting lovejoy80
Needed some patience with this one but it's working out well so far, expecting a small retracement before a further push down hopefully, either way my SL has been moved down to lock in profit and TP set
Awesome trade LJ. I was expecting a strong move at .75 and price just seemed to chop around this area. Price seems to often chop around the big round numbers like that, before finally deciding which way to go, so I was not surprised.

But I never even noticed the .7550 PPZ for a touch trade. Even looking back at it with you pointing it out, my eyes have trouble really picking it out.

But the trade makes great sense. Let me see if I can list the reasons...

.7550 was a good PPZ with confluence between the 50 and 61.8 Fib retracements.

Often when around a Big Round Number, price might head fake one way (as this head faked LONG) and then break the opposite direction. Was this also a reason you liked this trade?

Thanks for all you do here.

T.J.
  • #3,335
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:44am Mar 2, 2011 6:44am
Quoting lovejoy80
Needed some patience with this one but it's working out well so far, expecting a small retracement before a further push down hopefully, either way my SL has been moved down to lock in profit and TP set
Hi Lovejoy, I really like your thread, and I learn a lot from your posts. I've been following this thread for a few weeks (wish I could discover this thread earlier), and I'll go back to the first post to read from the beginning when I have time. Thank you so much for sharing your trades and thought with us. I started trading about one year ago with a negative result so far, still trying to improve my skill.

If you dont mind I have a question regarding this trade that you took, I notice that price struggled for quite a while before it came down, how do you manage this trade and where was the initial SL and at what point did you set the SL to breakeven? Thank you.
  • #3,336
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:36am Mar 2, 2011 7:36am
Quoting unlv_tj
Awesome trade LJ....
Reasons were:

1. 1st time back to a good daily PPZ...so as its 1st time back has a higher chance of acting as resistance.

2. Within the fib zone so additional confluence.

3. With the current trend.

I didn't really pay too much attention to the RN to be honest.
  • #3,337
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:39am Mar 2, 2011 7:39am
Quoting nycc
Hi Lovejoy, I really like your thread, and I learn a lot from your posts. I've been following this thread for a few weeks (wish I could discover this thread earlier), and I'll go back to the first post to read from the beginning when I have time. Thank you so much for sharing your trades and thought with us. I started trading about one year ago with a negative result so far, still trying to improve my skill.

If you dont mind I have a question regarding this trade that you took, I notice that price struggled for quite a while before it came down,...
Initial Sl was 25 pips, entry @ 0.7550 (I..e sL was just above the 61 fib and the previous spikes through this area when it held as resistance in the past)

I moved to BE the initial thurst down (as seen on the 1HR chart) as this is the touch trade 'reaction'. It was no surprise price chopped around for a while considering what price has done in this area in the past hence this was another reason I moved to BE.

My SL is now above the 0.7430 support area that price just tested as resistance.
  • #3,338
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:42am Mar 2, 2011 7:42am
...and two new trades...AJ and AU lining up at the same time and YM testing 12050 area as resistance...easy stuff! Moved to BE already and what will be will be now.
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  • #3,339
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:18am Mar 2, 2011 8:18am
Quoting lovejoy80
Initial Sl was 25 pips, entry @ 0.7550 (I..e sL was just above the 61 fib and the previous spikes through this area when it held as resistance in the past)

I moved to BE the initial thurst down (as seen on the 1HR chart) as this is the touch trade 'reaction'. It was no surprise price chopped around for a while considering what price has done in this area in the past hence this was another reason I moved to BE.

My SL is now above the 0.7430 support area that price just tested as resistance.
Thank you LJ for the explanation. And congrat for the AU & AJ trade, I couldnt spot them in my chart until you mentioned.
  • #3,340
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:21am Mar 2, 2011 8:21am
Quoting nycc
Thank you LJ for the explanation. And congrat for the AU & AJ trade, I couldnt spot them in my chart until you mentioned.
No worries, breakeven trade on AU and looking likely to be the same on AJ...and NU looking like getting stopped out for a 3.6R win...moving on.
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