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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,381
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:38pm Feb 28, 2011 3:38pm
OK my 2 cents. Please, please feel free to point out anything you disagree with

I have attached a monthly, weekly and daily chart from the Euro futures. I have photoshopped the daily so the volume is against the correct bar (please ignore the volume's colour, it obviously doesn't match whether its an up or down bar anymore).

Firstly, the monthly. I don't think anyone would dispute we are in an uptrend. A shakeout and transfer from weak to strong holders whilst Europe was going to die in the middle of last year, saw an uptrend begin. We saw some supply enter the market in October (take profit?) but on the November down bar we see more buying - in fact the 2nd highest volume bar in the euro's existence. The next bar is up, showing clear buying. After December's up bar, we see a test where the low of the bar dips below December's low but ends on the high - I mean come on, how can people be seeing this as weakness??? Strong sign of strength IMHO.

Next, the weekly. In December, we have our no supply bar, followed in early January by a 2 bar reversal / shakeout. Sure, we have a couple of upthrusts (in fact a hidden upthrust at the end of Jan but look at the volume - average. This is not the smart money saying lets get the hell out of euro. Next week is less volume on a down bar, but only just down - no real interest in the down side here. Then we have a possible shakeout / test 2 weeks ago - dropping below the previous weeks low but closing on the high. Then last week, it closed off the highs but look at the volume - this isn't distribution!!

Finally, the daily. I've highlighted 2 key bars - the no supply on the 14th Feb, followed by Friday's down bar - look at the volume! There is no interest to the downside here from the smart money.

Here rests my case. If I'm right in my judgements (and please tell me if I am wrong) how can anyone be anything but bullish?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E monthly.jpg Size: 168 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e weekly.jpg Size: 187 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e daily.jpg Size: 197 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,382
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:39pm Feb 28, 2011 3:39pm
Well I wasn't trying to stir anything up but I kinda feel like I'm being attacked for merely posting that I made pips against malcolms calls. I just don't get it I guess. I thought these forums were here to help folks make money. Oh well.

Quoting taomql4
Come get your check , X.Oden - I promise you , there's nothing behinde me ..
You are right , Mal is such a Jerk ...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,383
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:44pm Feb 28, 2011 3:44pm
Uh I did post a chart. But I guess folks here think it's not possible to make anything in fx? What is everyones problem? Go back and look at my charts
Sheesh. You guys are sad. Guess no ones used to making much around here.
Quoting Intel
LOL

Have you only just noticed....
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,384
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:47pm Feb 28, 2011 3:47pm
Here's mine wheres yours big mouth?

Http://www.twitter.com/myfxjournals/


Quoting Intel
LOL

Have you only just noticed....
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,385
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:56pm Feb 28, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting X.Oden
Uh I did post a chart. But I guess folks here think it's not possible to make anything in fx? What is everyones problem? Go back and look at my charts
Sheesh. You guys are sad. Guess no ones used to making much around here.
I quoted Malcolm, not you. I don't think I mentioned you by name but, if you feel you fall into that category.......
  • #14,386
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:56pm Feb 28, 2011 3:56pm
hmmm my eu futures volume is on the correct bar

looking at today, yes the volume was higher than friday, but its still low, infact other than 17th jan and last mondays bank holiday, its the lowest volume all year.....and right into a major double top, and closing off the highs.

clearly i am no vsa expert but i am thinking 1. if its soaking up supply then shouldnt the volume be higher? and 2. if its gonna break that 3855 high it aint gonna do it on volume that low. after fridays test id have liked more volume and a close nearer the highs to confirm strength.

looking at the 5min, when price came down into this 3780 area i expected to see some volume kicking in if it was being bought, but saw nothing at all that looked like buying to me. drifted back above 3800 on very low vol.

to me looks a bit weak after today. really needs a successful break and test of 3850 to confirm strength is still there, and then i guess 4000 is very likely. but if 3850 fails again tomorrow (if it even reaches 3850, it has to break 3820 first) then it might be selling time. at the moment looking for sells in 3820 area, think malcolm is looking for the same (no doubt i will miss it during asia and wake up for london open with nothing to trade again).

or perhaps im reading it wrong?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,387
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:59pm Feb 28, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting X.Oden
Well I wasn't trying to stir anything up but I kinda feel like I'm being attacked for merely posting that I made pips against malcolms calls. I just don't get it I guess. I thought these forums were here to help folks make money. Oh well.
This is what happens when the market is DEAD , X.Oden . I was just kidding with you . But the only call I remember Mal making about EU was the test on 4 hr chart , and indeed the market did go up today . Made a boat load , so I thought you were acting like oliver twist asking for more ..lol--That's all..
  • #14,388
  • Feb 28, 2011 4:13pm Feb 28, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting Intel
LOL

Have you only just noticed. We have a plethora of traders who make an enormous amount of pips day after day but, never post a chart at their entry point or post saying they are entering now. Of course, noone HAS to post their entries, but it might help some of the less experienced VSAers out there

I'm afraid we're rapidly turning into one of THOSE threads. It's interesting to read some of the charts AFTER the trade, justifying entry. If some were to actually trade like their charts suggest, they'd be bankrupt in no time, even tho the...
We don't all trade fulltime and unless it is early Asia I can't post my charts simply for a lack of time. I get up at 3AM to check pre LO set-ups and go back to bed to get a few hours sleep before work. I post most all of my charts when I get to work for anything taken earlier that morning with all reasonings why I took the set-up , what I saw, why I entered, where I set my SL and TP's... If I take a trade while at work again I enter the trade and then have someone at my desk or have meetings so I post when I get the chance.

I post to hopefully show others also new to VSA how and why I took a trade and more so to get opinions / comments from the more senior guys on whether they agree with my trades and if not where did I go wrong.

I do not know if this comment or this entire discussion that seems to have all the experienced VSA'ers up in arms about traders not giving pre signals before trades if pointed at me since this is how I post my charts and if it is I appologize if my postings are looked at as being of no value... just say the word and I will cease posting.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,389
  • Feb 28, 2011 4:42pm Feb 28, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting X.Oden
Here's mine wheres yours big mouth?

Http://www.twitter.com/myfxjournals/
Hey, Bigdawg...

Ever get the feeling you are barking up the wrong ass?

Admittedly, I was amused by your first postings in ribbing the VSA guys, but now I think you are starting to go a little over the top.

As a different sort of trader myself, I watch for price movement and really don't care about much but moving money and trying to take a ride...

Thing is, the good folk that hang out here with Mal do so for a pretty specific purpose, which is to observe the markets through a select format, that format just doesn't happen to be the way that you or I feel the same amount of comfort with...

So, before ya go swinging the big guns here and getting all pissy with Mal and his VSA Minions, why not do this...

Join me and a few others over at the EUR/USD thread. I would be willing to bet that you will find people a little more appreciative of your charting style and forecasts then will with people who are here to work through VSA.

No offense meant here brother and the invite is in all sincerity...

Plus, I am already their indy bitch, so, this position and set of shoes has already been filled...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #14,390
  • Feb 28, 2011 4:46pm Feb 28, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting ewokuk
hmmm my eu futures volume is on the correct bar

looking at today, yes the volume was higher than friday, but its still low, infact other than 17th jan and last mondays bank holiday, its the lowest volume all year.....and right into a major double top, and closing off the highs.

clearly i am no vsa expert but i am thinking 1. if its soaking up supply then shouldnt the volume be higher?...
Ewok

I'm no expert but I'll try to reply. Any pros please jump in where I've got something wrong.

You talk about soaking up supply but that's not how the markets work. What I think you're talking about is absorption volume, where the smart money is that bullish they're prepared to absorb selling in order to keep the market going up. However, absorption is expensive - its much cheaper for them to shake the market out, or test for supply to tempt the bears out from their hiding places.

When the market reaches highs like the 1.38 level and supply arrives, the smart money will simply withdraw their interest for the time being (hence no demands). This is why the market cannot go up constantly forever - it needs pullbacks because otherwise the smart money would need to absorb any supply which would soon put them out of business! Tom's book covers this well.

In this case we hit supply a few days back, and each time we've risen back to this level the supply has got less and less. Looking at the 2 hour chart we can see:
supply arriving at 1.3760 (23rd 14:00),
then no demands (24th during asia session),
then shakeout during London (24th),
then supply at 1.3790-1.3800 (24th 14:00),
low volume upthrusts (25th during asia),
pullbacks until the push up today which rested after reaching its ATR for the day, with no demands at the top.

I think the key is, why should the SM absorb when they can shakeout with the same end result (but cheaper for them!!!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e 2h.jpg Size: 233 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,391
  • Feb 28, 2011 4:53pm Feb 28, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting X.Oden
Here's mine wheres yours big mouth?

Http://www.twitter.com/myfxjournals/
Hmmmm...


Your twitter page recording your trades doesn't make sense (at least the last EU trade doesnt)
Oh and BTW, your AUDUSD sell 1.0143..........congratulations, you almost managed to pick the bottom!
  • #14,392
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:06pm Feb 28, 2011 5:06pm
I can appreciate the feedback....just felt the heat riding up my legs in here that's all man. No big thing.....

Thanks for the reality check.

Quoting Magix
Hey, Bigdawg...

Ever get the feeling you are barking up the wrong ass?

Admittedly, I was amused by your first postings in ribbing the VSA guys, but now I think you are starting to go a little over the top.

As a different sort of trader myself, I watch for price movement and really don't care about much but moving money and trying to take a ride...

Thing is, the good folk that hang out here with Mal do so for a pretty specific purpose, which is to observe the markets through a select format, that format just doesn't happen to be the way that...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,393
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:09pm Feb 28, 2011 5:09pm
I guess I must be better than I thought pickin bottoms on shorts and still coming up with some amazing profits....lol. Thanks. I appreciate it.


Quoting Intel
Hmmmm...


Your twitter page recording your trades doesn't make sense (at least the last EU trade doesnt)
Oh and BTW, your AUDUSD sell 1.0143..........congratulations, you almost managed to pick the bottom!
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,394
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:11pm Feb 28, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
eu stacks supply again today and 12 hour ended on pin in major london and us sessions
Malc

It's a pin bar but on reduced volume. Could it be more likely the SM are taking a rest than the sign of a reversal?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: malcs pin bar.jpg Size: 215 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,395
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:12pm Feb 28, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting X.Oden
I can appreciate the feedback....just felt the heat riding up my legs in here that's all man. No big thing.....

Thanks for the reality check.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #14,396
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:16pm Feb 28, 2011 5:16pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Malc

It's a pin bar but on reduced volume. Could it be more likely the SM are taking a rest than the sign of a reversal?
It's even more pronounced on the futures - albeit a clear upthrust in an area of previous weakness...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e malc pin bar.jpg Size: 201 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,397
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:32pm Feb 28, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting X.Oden
I guess I must be better than I thought pickin bottoms on shorts and still coming up with some amazing profits....lol. Thanks. I appreciate it.
No problem mate

I hope you do well with your trade.
  • #14,398
  • Feb 28, 2011 6:10pm Feb 28, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting Steve Gill
It's even more pronounced on the futures - albeit a clear upthrust in an area of previous weakness...
3850 is going to be difficult to break through but one can asume that when it does we will have some fireworks. The pin you are looking at does signal supply but the fact the rejection has not been deep or met with serious sellers below 3800 to me indicates the eur still has buyers (strength). I am waiting for a break of the pin and a retrace to 3850 for testing to enter a long. If not settle back, trichet and bernanke both speak this week and will likely set the tone for this cross for the weeks to follow. To add to that, its nfp week.
  • #14,399
  • Edited 6:36pm Feb 28, 2011 6:19pm | Edited 6:36pm
Quoting ewokuk
hmmm my eu futures volume is on the correct bar

looking at today, yes the volume was higher than friday, but its still low, infact other than 17th jan and last mondays bank holiday, its the lowest volume all year.....and right into a major double top, and closing off the highs.

clearly i am no vsa expert but i am thinking 1. if its soaking up supply then shouldnt the volume be higher?...

1. Supply came in with the first 2 upbars .
2. A no demand appeared within the first bar with price declining afterwards , indicating supply present .
3. So Guess what ? the next time they come around that bar , they will take on the sellers , and they did with the High volume downbar closing off it's lows(key) .
4. Now before they up and leave , they will have to test those two bars again - ( the white line will do just fine ) .
5. That Brings us to Today - Those that were lucky enough to catch the accumulation before the thrust(on a Lower Time-Frame) was just catching the confirmation bar to the ND test bar on the daily .
6. You don't take on the sellers necessarily at the top , you take them on where they are at..In this case , slightly below.

Now some key S/R levels remain above , so you have to watch them carefully if you are long now.. My buy order was just trying to catch today's retracement .. They may have to back up before they can run through any resistance , so i have to watch it ..

annd that's it-- i dunno, maybe Magix can add more ....I like to follow people..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,400
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:09pm Feb 28, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting Steve Gill
OK my 2 cents. Please, please feel free to point out anything you disagree with
excellent post! For what it's worth I share your longer term view. Certainly won't be a straight line up, but the chart is telling us that is the general direction.

Keep up the good work.
Change is the only constant
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