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Price Action Trading - EUR/USD

  • #41
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:26pm Feb 27, 2011 6:26pm
What a bummer !!!

Nice and encouraging way to start the week ...hahah

3777 , SL at 3720 = 57pips loss.

Some work to do to breakeven this week.
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  • #42
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:47am Feb 28, 2011 5:47am
It is very often in post-market action that we realized that we are still right ... as in this case for my long entry with TP at 3808. The only thing wrong was the early entry, making it expensive to put a further stop loss .... say at 3700 ....

I didn't know i was still right at that point of time .... just that price action would try another time upside. But where it would turn and try .... this i got it very wrong. I look at a few key supports , esp. 3720 to hold, and next to be 3700... but i was very afraid that if i got both wrong, due to the poor entry, the losses would get too expensive.

I have to recognize the fact that the market is always right, even if it is wrong .... so point in head ..... next time, look for better entries, that well-positioned stop loss can be afforded without being to expensive...
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  • #43
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:46am Feb 28, 2011 9:46am
Charging on ahead !!! Guess my posting is a wee bit too late due to poor internet connection from hotel overseas ...

Short the pair down for all its worth .... up to 38% retracement at 3810 from 3830, with stop loss at 3860
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  • #44
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:49am Feb 28, 2011 9:49am
Quoting ken_wongyl
Charging on ahead !!! Guess my posting is a wee bit too late due to poor internet connection from hotel overseas ...

Short the pair down for all its worth .... up to 38% retracement at 3810 from 3830, with stop loss at 3860
Done Deal !!! 20pips worth of profit from here.
  • #45
  • Feb 28, 2011 11:32am Feb 28, 2011 11:32am
Right now, EURUSD seems on a retracement downside.

Shortest being 50% at 3784. But i guess it is not likely to stop there.
I preempt it at 62% at 3765

Anyway, i am staying out for the time being .... or at least for tonight as the predominant trend is bullish. But current trend is retracement short. Never know when the retracement might decide to cut short and resume its upside move.
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  • #46
  • Feb 28, 2011 11:45am Feb 28, 2011 11:45am
Boredom calls . . .

While i wait for something to happen at EURUSD, i was just tempted to look at other more happening places ..... here we are at EURGBP.

A bullish uptrend sofar, breaking the previous high at 8527, and still forming higher lows. From my last trade close on this pair .... i was mentioning that i would wait for it to retrace before going back into it. And PRESTO !!! here i m today again.

It would retain bullish market sentiment as long as 8420 support holds. Price is likely to trace down a little bit more to 62% at 8465 region. It should turn from there, otherwise at 8441.

1st target for long would be 8591. I m putting my TP at 8566 in case market sentiment fall short. In any event, when market reaches that level, it is likely to take a breather like me .....
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  • #47
  • Mar 1, 2011 6:40am Mar 1, 2011 6:40am
Such a pity it is .... I wasn't around for a long while until now, just to realize that the price miss my entry by just a few pips for the EURGBP pair ... and it is now like 16-20pips above my long ..... shifted up my entry to 8480 now to take advantage of a possible retracement downside to support there before it breaks the trendline for upside.

Such is things that when u miss one, u miss two ....
Looking at GBPUSD pair after going thru BuildCity's post, i think it is a good place to short. Maybe now is ok, but i am waiting for it to pull back first to resistance level, then i will short it all the way down.

I believe that it will have a healthy retracement to at least 62% level (6143) before it try upside again.
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  • #48
  • Mar 1, 2011 6:44am Mar 1, 2011 6:44am
EURGBP - if it breaks above 8504, i will be jumping into the bandwagon regardless for LONG.

GBPUSD - I will wait for the price formation first. ShORT is my definite direction .... it is a matter of when. For this, i believe i can wait.
  • #49
  • Mar 1, 2011 9:48am Mar 1, 2011 9:48am
Quoting ken_wongyl
EURGBP - if it breaks above 8504, i will be jumping into the bandwagon regardless for LONG.

GBPUSD - I will wait for the price formation first. ShORT is my definite direction .... it is a matter of when. For this, i believe i can wait.
EURGBP entry has been made as per planned - 8480 Long
SL 8415 TP 8552
GBPUSD entry has been made as per planned - 6284 Short
SL 6350 TP 6144

Guess these positions would take a few days to reach price targets ...
  • #50
  • Mar 1, 2011 7:09pm Mar 1, 2011 7:09pm
Taking a LONG for EURUSD at 3774, targeting TP 93 and SL 51 to take advantage of a retracement from the excessive price movement from yesterday due to ISM and Fed Bernanke's speech.

To date now,

EURGBP - -3pip
GBPUSD - +29pip in the money

latest EURUSD - breakeven 0pip as of now ....
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  • #51
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:33am Mar 2, 2011 8:33am
Quoting ken_wongyl
Taking a LONG for EURUSD at 3774, targeting TP 93 and SL 51 to take advantage of a retracement from the excessive price movement from yesterday due to ISM and Fed Bernanke's speech.

To date now,

EURGBP - -3pip
GBPUSD - +29pip in the money

latest EURUSD - breakeven 0pip as of now ....
EURUSD - Stop out for 23pips .... another disappointment before reaching my target price ... hiaz ..... another case of right direction, wrong timing....
  • #52
  • Mar 3, 2011 6:35am Mar 3, 2011 6:35am
Quoting ken_wongyl
EURGBP entry has been made as per planned - 8480 Long
SL 8415 TP 8552
GBPUSD entry has been made as per planned - 6284 Short
SL 6350 TP 6144

Guess these positions would take a few days to reach price targets ...
GBPUSD exit at 6264. Potential for GBP to breakout to the north side due to the buildup. And is no longer safe to hold a Short position.

Close for 20pips

EURGBP continue to hold....
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  • #53
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:59am Mar 3, 2011 8:59am
Quoting ken_wongyl
EURGBP entry has been made as per planned - 8480 Long
SL 8415 TP 8552
GBPUSD entry has been made as per planned - 6284 Short
SL 6350 TP 6144

Guess these positions would take a few days to reach price targets ...
EURGBP trade hit target and closed .... oh Yeah !!!
Let's see that, that is worth 8480 to 8552 ...72 pips !!!

Not taking anymore position for now. Not with the NFP looming tomorrow.... not worth the risk.
  • #54
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:06am Mar 3, 2011 9:06am
Summary of Trades so far :
28 Feb - -57pips + 20pips = -37pips
2 Mar - -23pips
3 Mar - 20pips + 72pips = 92pips
Total so far: +32pips
Could have been better though .... but a trade lost is a lesson learnt ....


Week ending 26 Feb : +179pips
  • #55
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:14am Mar 3, 2011 9:14am
Finally i m focusing back on EURUSD..... for now
Putting a short trade at 3927, tp at 3905 and sl at 3971.

I m expecting a reasonable health pullback tonight after such a strong move upside. The pull back should be able to hit 62% i believe (3885). But i also believe i should not be greedy ... Yah!!!
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  • #56
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:34am Mar 6, 2011 7:34am
Quoting ken_wongyl
Finally i m focusing back on EURUSD..... for now
Putting a short trade at 3927, tp at 3905 and sl at 3971.

I m expecting a reasonable health pullback tonight after such a strong move upside. The pull back should be able to hit 62% i believe (3885). But i also believe i should not be greedy ... Yah!!!
This move was stop out for -44pips. But nevertheless, my expectation has not changed. The bulls are just crazy at times ....

But we are at a psychological level now at 1.4000, further penetration is not expected to be easy without a retracement first. I am expecting a retracement of some sort of at least 50% Fibo (~3917) from the NFP move, with luck, maybe an even more steeper retracement to 78.9% (~3869). Profit taking from speculative capital flow is likely to be in place for early next week.

If you ask me, a Short is good but risky. Nevertheless, SL is cheap here. Shorting now 3983 , with SL 50pips above 1.4, targeting 3917 (profit potential 66pips) At least next week i have more time to monitor the price action than last week
  • #57
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:37am Mar 6, 2011 7:37am
Summary of Trades so far :
28 Feb : -57pips + 20pips = -37pips
2 Mar : -23pips
3 Mar : 20pips + 72pips = 92pips
4 Mar : -44pips
Total so far: -12pips
Could have been better though .... but a trade lost is a lesson learnt ....


Week ending 26 Feb : +179pips
Week ending 4 Mar: -12pips
  • #58
  • Edited 9:11pm Mar 6, 2011 9:01pm | Edited 9:11pm
In case there are queries on the large SL levels that i have put into per trade .... i want to raise the point of proper money management here.

Losses per pip per trade, is based on trading size. If the trading size is managed properly, the losses per trade, even if it is a 100pips loss, could be as small as $10 only. The point is, what is the % loss per trade acceptable? 1% is the norms usually.

I have put a simple spread sheet here ....

Account Equity: $1,000.00
% Loss Per Trade1.0%
$ Loss Per Trade$10.0
Stop Loss (pips)20 30 50 70 80 90 100
Trading Volume 5,000 3,333 2,000 1,429 1,250 1,111 1,000

Account Equity: $5,000.00
% Loss Per Trade1.0%
$ Loss Per Trade$50.0
Stop Loss (pips)20 30 50 70 80 90 100
Trading Volume 25,000 16,667 10,000 7,143 6,250 5,556 5,000

Account Equity: $10,000.00
% Loss Per Trade1.0%
$ Loss Per Trade$100.0
Stop Loss (pips)20 30 50 70 80 90 100
Trading Volume50,000 33,333 20,000 14,286 12,500 11,111 10,000

The risk can be easily managed by varying the trading size to the no. of pip stop loss expected from the trade.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Equity_SL_TradeVol Management.xls   16 KB | 265 downloads
  • #59
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:30pm Mar 7, 2011 8:30pm
Abit quiet on my side here as i m waiting still for the trade to retrace and close at my TP.

From the 1min perspective, a head & shoulder formed at 4035 with neck at 4015. That marked the turning point for shorts yesterday.

While it is a wild guess, i deem it possible for market to cover all the way back to 3880 (79% retracement) before further action since there is so much buying at that point after the NFP. Profit taking should be in motion now.

Well ... throughout yesterday, i did some scalping work. Managed to scavaged 17 pips from a few trades to keep myself occupied

Current 3950 is a good support level, which if it breaks, should show a materialization of the scenario that i have mentioned above herein with next support at 3850 level.
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  • #60
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:32pm Mar 7, 2011 10:32pm
A little bit bored here, and back to doing what the bored like to do .... analyze chart ..... maybe flip around different charts too ... hahaha

Price is reaching good resistance at 3990, maybe even 4000. Uptrend channel has violated, but not convincingly broken .... seems to have gone into a side-way consolidation now between 4000 and 3960. If it somehows moves back down to 3960, 3 lower highs would be confirmed at 4030, 4010 and 3990, setting in a down trend to break support at 3950.
This analysis would be void if price breaks or equal 4010 .... then we are looking at another animal
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