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  • #14,281
  • Feb 27, 2011 11:34am Feb 27, 2011 11:34am
Quoting pres78
No trades taken today so I have been somewhat bored... Thought I would try and embarrass myself by throwing together another Malcombesque week long prediction for next week. I think Monday we see a move down and shake out in the 3640 area (yes that same old 3640) forming the base for the week. Move up from there to close out the day back around the next point of interest at 3770-3780. Take out that old 3860 high on Tuesday or Wednesday and by then end of week we will have formed a new swing high at 3940-3970. I don't think we will take out 1.4 until...
Looking at this a little further 3680 very well could provide the bottom this week and we may not see as deep as 3640. 3680 would be a 38.2 retrace from the low on 2/14/2011 to Friday's latest high... 3630-3640 would be a 50 fib retrace so this could still be very possible keeping the upmove intact. If we get under 3630 and worse 3580 I would be looking for testing or uprthrust with confirmation into these levels to get in short... A close below 3480 on the daily and my whole perspective will change to be EU bearish. I still remember when we were testing this 3480 level (which is 38.2 fib retrace of the whole swing move from the low at 2874 to the current swing high at 3589) back on Feb 14th and 15th and even when we dipped below on the 16th many were calling for dead bulls and a run at parity but until I see a close below and a test from below I will remain bullish until at least that high from 11/4/2010 at 4279.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,282
  • Feb 27, 2011 11:34am Feb 27, 2011 11:34am
  •  blocp
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience, Patience,Patience | 22 Posts
Hi all

Great thread you've got here with an amazing amount of educational information.

I have been looking at using VSA in my trading on and off for over a year now, not really knowing which approach to take, all I know is that I don't want to trade indicators they just don't seem right.

I have done some research on price and volume as well as VSA and have spent the last 18 months just watching price and volume move all day without trading.
I have decided since christmas to give myself this year to build a strategy that I am happy and confident in to enable me to trade full time, I have started placing trades to get me used to pulling the trigger and have done ok about break even as I type.
I know that with out a consistent strategy I will not be able to make it in trading so am looking to use price,volume and hopefully VSA to build one from here.

I have been watching price alone without volume since november as my esignal subs expired and I wasn't sure which way I wanted to go with regards to subscribing to a platform. My spread betting firm don't supply volume, and was willing to see if I could trade on price alone, which to be honest I was making some pretty good calls, I just think that volume can give me a bit more confidence.

MY first question would be, will TradeGuider help me with my learning process and speed it up. I have read MTM a few time and have just purchased the original Tom Williams book in case it had other information in it and I also prefer books to reading the screen. I have re subscribed to esignal on a monthly basis at the moment and want to know if anyone had an opinion if it was worth me subscribing to the Tradeguider plug-in for esignal.

Thanks

bloc
  • #14,283
  • Feb 27, 2011 11:56am Feb 27, 2011 11:56am
X .. friday LOWEST VOLUME OF ALL WEEK on a down bar .... so where is all this selling pressure you are talking about

I am not saying you are wrong but there is more buying pressure than selling pressure.

key levels noted on charts.

In order to confirm real weakness we need to see an up move on a 4hour in london or us with either buyign climax or no demand. Then I will start thinking we have a down week .

For now i expect potential waffle move in 1.3680 area , where i will look for buys

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu201.png Size: 175 KB





Quoting X.Oden
Price broke below of price channel....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,284
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:08pm Feb 27, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
For now i expect potential waffle move in 1.3680 area , where i will look for buys
Damn you malcolm, you are adding something new every week . What the hell is waffle move?
  • #14,285
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:15pm Feb 27, 2011 12:15pm
waffle move is when i use a macd and stochastics to get into trades and market moves sideways , every time i get stopped and lose 40% of account , then by day 3 of the waffle move the market rips

lol

Quoting 1pipperhour
Damn you malcolm, you are adding something new every week . What the hell is waffle move?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,286
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:24pm Feb 27, 2011 12:24pm
do not like the shake out we see here .. that looks bullish ..12 hour chart.

There was some selling pressure at 1410 area but that is resistance and should be expected.

I would not be surprised to see gold hit new high and then fade from there.

I mean wtf .... indexes multi year highs and gold multi years highs ... does not make any sense

for now i would not sell UNLESS we break low of shake out bar 1390

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting cvcamper
Hey Malc, i love when you give Gold analysis. Whats your update?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,287
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:33pm Feb 27, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
based on this weekly there is more strength than weakness. To be honest do NOT be surprised to see 1.57 by 2012
That's quite a bold statement (I know, I know, poor joke considering that I added the bold!)

Nonetheless that is a very strong statement. I agree that 1.20 was heavily bought, but that was to stop the Euro from collapsing further after the Greek debacle. At the moment I cannot see 1.57 on my monthly chart, but hey the end of 2012 is 22 months away and anything can happen between now and then!
  • #14,288
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:48pm Feb 27, 2011 12:48pm
august 2012 ... with in a month

here is the chart..

Looks like a bull flag to me... maybe that is to obvious

Hell dj in 2012 ... will be 18000 or more lol... so eu back to 1.6 ... very possible

I think march will be up month , 800 pip ....that gives us 1.46 , but of course just guessing right now and taking it week by week for 200 to 300 pip a week depending on where i get in on the weekly range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting bbakker
That's quite a bold statement (I know, I know, poor joke considering that I added the bold!)

Nonetheless that is a very strong statement. I agree that 1.20 was heavily bought, but that was to stop the Euro from collapsing further after the Greek debacle. At the moment I cannot see 1.57 on my monthly chart, but hey the end of 2012 is 22 months away and anything can happen between now and then!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,289
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:53pm Feb 27, 2011 12:53pm
i am seeing this by the end of 2011, if not higher. the eur will go on rallying whilst everybody scratches their heads, reads reuters & bloomberg news and is not into buying euro. it is always the same.

Quoting bbakker
That's quite a bold statement (I know, I know, poor joke considering that I added the bold!)

Nonetheless that is a very strong statement. I agree that 1.20 was heavily bought, but that was to stop the Euro from collapsing further after the Greek debacle. At the moment I cannot see 1.57 on my monthly chart, but hey the end of 2012 is 22 months away and anything can happen between now and then!
  • #14,290
  • Feb 27, 2011 1:29pm Feb 27, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Looks like a bull flag to me... maybe that is to obvious...
I think it is too obvious. I find that patterns of the higher timeframes don't work as well as they do on the lower timeframes, but hey, anything is possible.

Needs to take out a few swing highs first. The last 5 weekly candles don't show a lot of strength and EU so far has been struggling to get back to 1.4. Saying that, looking at the monthly, we have been in a bull run since last June.

1.3950 and then of course 1.43 are key for me. Let's see what happens!
  • #14,291
  • Feb 27, 2011 1:50pm Feb 27, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
here is the chart..
Malcolm I presume the monthly volumes are in sync for the futures? Just checking as the daily is 1 day out of line, I'm guessing that perhaps the monthly is one day out of line but in the scheme of things it doesn't make a big difference to the overall monthly volume.

My charts are showing Jan as being a test; marked down below Dec's low only to finish on the high, on slightly increased volume. Clearly bullish. Looks like there was buying in November as well. I wish I'd been trading more last year - as you mentioned highest volume ever in May last year, with another clear test in June. If I remember rightly Europe was going to end according to the news - a perfect example of buying on bad news and selling on good news!!

That's what I love about VSA - start at a higher timeframe (like monthly) for direction and signs of strength or weakness, before drilling down to shorter timescales.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,292
  • Feb 27, 2011 2:42pm Feb 27, 2011 2:42pm
Hi Malcolm,

I don't know what your goals are in terms of targets or if you even use them. But I take profits out of the markets as I move with the trades, so for me, what others consider a small "dip" in price is essentially a big move for me. So if a dip to 1.368 (approx. 70 pips from current pricing) is chump change to you, its not to me....several of those trades a day is what I do and those are nice moves.

Call it a retrace a reversal or sally for all I care....all I'm saying is, if there's movement there's money.

I am watching this thread to see how accurate this volume trading stuff is. I'm at an 86% accuracy rate so its something worthwhile to compare to if volume trading is more accurate than what I'm already doing.

In any case, all we can do now is sit back and watch....but sorry, I don't coin flip, I make money.

Quoting malcolmb14
X .. friday LOWEST VOLUME OF ALL WEEK on a down bar .... so where is all this selling pressure you are talking about

I am not saying you are wrong but there is more buying pressure than selling pressure.

key levels noted on charts.

In order to confirm real weakness we need to see an up move on a 4hour in london or us with either buyign climax or no demand. Then I will start thinking we have a down week .

For now i expect potential waffle move in 1.3680 area , where i will look for buys

Attachment
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,293
  • Feb 27, 2011 2:46pm Feb 27, 2011 2:46pm
Do you trade Sundays or start your day out on Mondays - ???



Quoting malcolmb14
lest see how monday unfolds , so far friday was a low volume down day with little selling pressure and strength in the background. There is some supply at 1,3780 and if bulls want higher prices they have to dry this supply up .
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,294
  • Edited 4:21pm Feb 27, 2011 3:31pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
raza weekly mt4 is unrealiable on spot

here is futures

blue lines left to right

1.2xxx highest vol ever stopping vol

1.4 high volume on a doji has to be sellers and sure enough market rolled over.

doji on high volume right in support area 1.3500. buyers for sure BUT market not ready to rise and we fall under LOW volume for a test of support.

shake out of market at 1.3380 VERY high volume.... 1st sign accumulation

january 2 bar reversal BIGGEST EVER IN HISTORY OF EURO

marked on chart is my potential trade for this week

based...
NO I would not be surprised to see 1.57 by or before OCTOBER 2011.. FORGET 2012...IN 2012 YOU MAY SEE 2.00 EURO

HERE IS MY CHART CONFIRMING PRICE TARGETS...

Key levels are 1.3680 as mentioned friday morning also ... then 1.3307 - 1.3178 MAX...(if sell off)

Take this CHART with PEPTOBISMOL..(not you but everyone else)

1.3680- 70 why? From smaller Tfs I have spotted a pattern which I believe is a Leading diagonal(ew) besides the fib price or prior resistence this is where price should obey the pattern and wave #4 will complete there where it is overlapping wave #1 and thats OK in diagonal.This is Wave#4 so it is gonna be very complex up and down this week scalping opportunity.

Trick is to figure out when it is in 1.39xx- 140.xx whether this is a leading Diagonal or an ending one...I believe it is a leading diagonal(15 min)and I spotted this sometime last week and waited to short it from 1.3836..

On the chart one can see why price stopped at 1.4280... what is the price relation there in terms of symmetry.

I know what the VIOLATION prices are for this scenario not to play out or as Malcolmb puts it WEAKNESS..

I would also like to ADD that this is not just an imaginary chart..it is developed by combining a lot of knowledge from different sources..and by the pattern is correct.( so far)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #14,295
  • Feb 27, 2011 4:07pm Feb 27, 2011 4:07pm
I think we are getting a little bit ahead of ourselves with future price predictions. I am a eur and pound bull myself but can speak from experience when saying if your mind is already set on a long/short bias, overlooking and passing off certain vsa indications of moves contrary to your paradigm can become very easy.
It also spells disaster for your trading account.
  • #14,296
  • Feb 27, 2011 4:10pm Feb 27, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
I think we are getting a little bit ahead of ourselves with future price predictions. I am a eur and pound bull myself but can speak from experience when saying if your mind is already set on a long/short bias, overlooking and passing off certain vsa indications of moves contrary to your paradigm can become very easy.
It also spells disaster for your trading account.
A voice of reason cries out of the wilderness.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #14,297
  • Feb 27, 2011 5:01pm Feb 27, 2011 5:01pm
Here we go.....
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,298
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:41pm Feb 27, 2011 6:41pm
monday

you see eu moves 350 pip a week , gu 350 , es 300 pip , gold 300 pip etc etc... all I got to do is figure out where low or high of week is. then i can go in 10 lots , add 10 lots on a test and then another 10 on a test ( assuming three days up or down) 1st lot make 20 k , 2nd 10 . 12 k and 3rd 5 k , worked ok last 6 weeks , only been trying this longer term stuff since jan after burning out like a candle in dec. The 2nd lot is not entered till the 1st position has stop at break even , so risk is only ever 10 k to make 35 to 40

I used to day trade like you taking 50 here n 50 there . But found it consumed my life and since going to a weekly range MUCH happier and much more balanced , not worried about markets as much and enjoying life.

I can do the range thing on 3 or 4 pairs a week and have all the time on the world to get into the trade.

Oil is going to be the great trade this week. Bought a little at 98 , want to add on break up 100 , target 110 to 120

Quoting X.Oden
Do you trade Sundays or start your day out on Mondays - ???
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,299
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:49pm Feb 27, 2011 6:49pm
mickey mouse tradeguider trend.... all we do is sell sign weakness ...lol

it can be that easy.

This is a 30 min chart . no longs since Friday london , trend bars down , H stops above price and trend diamonds mostly down , this changes then we go long

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 204 KB
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  • #14,300
  • Feb 27, 2011 7:17pm Feb 27, 2011 7:17pm
I hear ya...I trade 4hrs...doesn't consume my life...I have loads of fun.

Quoting malcolmb14
monday

you see eu moves 350 pip a week , gu 350 , es 300 pip , gold 300 pip etc etc... all I got to do is figure out where low or high of week is. then i can go in 10 lots , add 10 lots on a test and then another 10 on a test ( assuming three days up or down) 1st lot make 20 k , 2nd 10 . 12 k and 3rd 5 k , worked ok last 6 weeks , only been trying this longer term stuff since jan after burning out like a candle in dec. The 2nd lot is not entered till the 1st position has stop at break even , so risk is only ever 10 k to make 35 to 40

I used...
In Charts We Trust!
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