vsa with Malcolm

Raza I know your not looking for a fib debate.. But I am just curious where you see it heading if we bounce off the 2440, 23% fib off 4280 and 1876?

Doing a standard ext from 1876, 4280, 2440 100% is at 4860. From a 20 yr history never have two highs or two lows been that close together, even if we go thro that next stop is 161% 6350 which same issue, that is going to run too close to the 6040 high from july 2008.

Either way its going to have a tough time dipping below 3433, that fib played an important role through the last accumulation thru dec-jan, and it couldnt be broken 2 weeks ago.

I have erased my previous post . I need to see some more answers to my question..

your 1.3433 level has some significance but the more important level is 1.32 which recently broke... that is the only doubt I have for UP move.

All I can say is if it breaks 1.3180 level again then its not going UP... and for the upside we have 1.3860 once broken there is no real resistence but 1.4280
After 1.3860 is broken then 1.3730 is strong support.

Lets see what develops this week .

If you or anyone needs to discuss anything besides VSA... use other forum..these Vsa guys wants to keep the thread strictly for VSA...

unless they break rules for themselves...thats OK..lol...( THEY ARE SLEEPING RIGHT NOW)

may be use AUSLANCO thread for FIB or Indicators.

Can I ask the gurus in here what are their thoughts on USD/CAD? I was looking at OANDA's open position ratios last week and saw that about 80% of people were long. I don't trade the pair but keep sn eye on it. I personally would have never gone long, because without using any indi, If you were just zoomin out , you could see DOWN.

I know that loony gets stronger as oil price climbs, but do you think that the current move is sustainable or it is a shakeout of some sort?

Raza, SimpleDev, you guys are up? I thought I am the only zombie tonight...

Doesnt everyone wake up for london open?

Oh thats right.. its Sunday.

The 17 cents is from the June 2010 low to current.

Here's the logic behind it. It is rushed, shallow, and processed by a brain drained by 9-5, so please don't interpret it as anything more than a guess.

 

1. We saw a rare, massive sell-off in 2010.
2. We know that due to liquidity, larger participants lack manoeuverability.
3. If we want to buy a lot of something, we know it's best to do so during sales. We transfer this knowledge into trading and realise that if we want to build a large long position, it's most effectively accomplished during a sell-off.
4. The difficulty of establishing and exiting positions for large participants means that if they are skilled, they will only commit significantly if they are very confident that the market will turn, otherwise they will be caught liquidating a large position in a bear market. They then require a large move afterwards due to the inefficiency of their exit.
5. Obviously, we can expect that large, skilled participants will try to establish large positions during an opposing move that they think is about to end.
6. 2010 was a rare, massive sell-off. We know that sell-off are opportunities, therefore a massive sell-off is a massive opportunity. A massive opportunity affords an equally massive position, and that then requires an equally massive move afterwards.

I don't know that the positions establishing in May/June were massive, but I can only expect that they were, since it was such a great opportunity to do so.

 

1. If sell-offs are such a great opportunity, and large, skilled participants can seemingly pick the turn off the market, perhaps they can enhance a sell-off and turn the market.

We saw some strong retracements before we hit the May 2010 lows, so we might speculate that skilled participants were buying, furthering the sell off, and then buying more. This would mean it wasn't just buying near the low, but well before, which in turn means that the positions are that much larger, and price needs to move that much further.

The conclusion, which is kind of obvious, is that massive long positions were established between 1.20 and 1.30.

We reached a little above 1.42, spending about a month around 1.40 on high volume. This means a lot of buying and selling, so either old longs are liquidating, or bears are hitting the market. Price falls to 1.30 (and to 1.29 later), and demand comes into the market. I believe this action is most likely the result of liquidation of long positions, and not serious creation of shorts.

 

1. I would not want to hold a massive long position during a 12-13 cent drop, and the skilled participants are great market readers, so I must assume that they've liquidated much of their position, if not a little short.
2. Price only drops 12-13 cents. A lot if I am massively long, but it's not much of a range to switch a massive long position into a short position and then liquidate/swap again.
3. We see demand enter at 1.30. If positions had been flipped, price would not currently be at 1.37. If positions hadn't been flipped, then there's a good chance that previous sharp longs are entering again at discount.

I speculate that 1.30 was sharp longs who against establish a long position. They will need either 1) a good price rise in which they can distribute, 2) somehow take advantage of a mass of buyers, or 3) both if possible. I don't think we've moved far enough, and have not seen massive weakness, so I cannot conclude that they're liquidating. If they're not liquidating, then they think price will continue to rise, or are waiting/creating a better area to exit.

what is your thought process behind this conclusion?

Esignal spot doesn't give daily volume, unless you mean 1439 minutes?

MACD says so

Was wondering that also...

I think its going down as well.....and the US will strengthen.

Conclusion is simply based on price action of the last few price bars...also of the close of Friday's market...price closed below the pivot point with momentum riding its back. The only reason for the slight market retrace upon market close was that traders were closing out positions.

Price broke below of price channel. Friday's close retested this channel and has not broken through the lower channel which is now resistance.

Price action says so.....that's my thought process and simply my two cents....

Of course, I'm basing everything on the 4hr chart, so if Malcolm and the gang are looking at smaller time frames or multiple time frames,they may see some retrace to the top, but the resumption of the uptrend I don't believe will be immediate. In fact, according to Malcolm's last chart, he is also showing for price to drop a bit further before it climbs back up...

3700- 3680 is on my cards. unless broken and rejected from below i won't short.

we printed a second nice rejection at the 3750 area which is the last reaction high before the low at the 3450 area and a high prob spot to rally.

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/1...0227164211.png

Here's my chart....

Nice post

based on the monthly chart all we did in february was to do almost a 50% retrace of januarys superbullish bar and jan/feb range, seeking for supply below the close. we dipped into an area of previous highs and came all the way back up to close as an upbar. this is a hidden test and based on the volume it indicates low supply whilst we had a volume surge in that area on the markdown during november.

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/3...0227163616.png

daily prints a similar picture. the last time we are at this spot there was more supply sitting here, this time fridays bar even has a test-like shape and vol signature. with the pitchwforks median line, 61.8 fib of the last downswing which could act as support and the spot where we previously have been sold off, we are in an area of good confluence. based on the action 3700/3680 remains the line in the sand for me to think of shorts. monday will guide us, as most of the time.

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/6...0227163037.png

raza weekly mt4 is unrealiable on spot

here is futures

blue lines left to right

1.2xxx highest vol ever stopping vol

1.4 high volume on a doji has to be sellers and sure enough market rolled over.

doji on high volume right in support area 1.3500. buyers for sure BUT market not ready to rise and we fall under LOW volume for a test of support.

shake out of market at 1.3380 VERY high volume.... 1st sign accumulation

january 2 bar reversal BIGGEST EVER IN HISTORY OF EURO

marked on chart is my potential trade for this week

based on this weekly there is more strength than weakness. To be honest do NOT be surprised to see 1.57 by 2012

lest see how monday unfolds , so far friday was a low volume down day with little selling pressure and strength in the background. There is some supply at 1,3780 and if bulls want higher prices they have to dry this supply up .

the coin landed on tails

Hey Malc, i love when you give Gold analysis. Whats your update?