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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,241
  • Edited 2:56am Feb 26, 2011 2:53am | Edited 2:56am
Quoting foxybunny
Thanks msmarple for the new Sam Seiden resource on "Price IS Everything".

Wit 680+ pages that will be homework for the next few weeks.
Any recommendation on what or who to concentrate on over there?
redsword11, emene and svdsa and Orbital, and Dropped Onion....

For me it is a bit the other way round, only since malcombīs charts and vsa ( and our resident Prof. Dr. Geppynius ) can I understand better WHY some levels hold and others don`t.

Glad to help...

Happy weekend.




____________
michael
Be like water.
  • #14,242
  • Edited 9:17am Feb 26, 2011 7:40am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting malcolmb14
12 hr chart marked all other friday

low volume test 1.3750

Attachment
Was just Going over your 12 hr chart again -

With Resistance becoming support , why is 1.340013 impossible ? All hope rest on the buyers @ .3697 right below
the shakeout(That came with some supply) on the 4 hr chart-i think ..
Attached Images
  • #14,243
  • Feb 26, 2011 8:16am Feb 26, 2011 8:16am
Would someone mind posting a daily from esig gtis? I no longer have a futures feed, so I'm testing some of the other options and I'd like to see how they compare.
  • #14,244
  • Feb 26, 2011 8:23am Feb 26, 2011 8:23am
Quoting Mr J
Would someone mind posting a daily from esig gtis? I no longer have a futures feed, so I'm testing some of the other options and I'd like to see how they compare.
This do? Remember (as was kindly pointed out to me a few days ago) that the volume is delayed one day.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,245
  • Feb 26, 2011 11:07am Feb 26, 2011 11:07am
Quoting Steve Gill
An impressive upthrust on low volume with Lloyds today (LLOY) after their latest results came out this morning LOL
I see esignal has fixed their data from the LSE

Daily chart for comment. I'm seeing strength here - market driven down before their results announced, and results day (friday) price gapped down on high volume (especially considering the problems the London stock exchange had meaning there was only really 1/2 day of trading. We are back into the price area of previous signs of strength with similar volume - the highlighted bar on the 3rd Feb, and stopping volume on the 25th Jan. Prior to that we had clear strength coming in on the 26th Nov through 1st December - increased (not excessive) volume down bars with the close narrowing each day, where the last day before the upmove was higher volume than the previous day but closed almost level. Next day as you can see was wide spread up, locking traders out. Shakeout?

I'm pretty bullish about this now, based on the above and the shakeout we've seen in the indices the last week. I'm interested in people's comments.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,246
  • Feb 26, 2011 11:18am Feb 26, 2011 11:18am
well this is a good question and lets look at the 12 hour chart since january of this year

1) 950 pip up move
2) falling wedge = bullish and a 450 pip drop In 3 weeks in a pair that does 350 pip a week average also all dips were bought in us session and drops happened in asia.
3) 38 % retrace ONLY .... and on that retrace a test ...was a really simple long for a 340 pip
4) 2 bar reversal / shake out in Monday of last week in asia after a holiday in US ... really to obvious for another easy 300 pip trade
5) test of key support 1.3750

there really is nothing bearish about this chart since jan 1 , that is why i do not see 1.34 just yet , maybe if we see weakness in the chart , ie 1.3640 breaks and we see a no demand bar on an up move then I will reconsider, till then we can expect 1,4 to 1.425

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Quoting taomql4
Was just Going over your 12 hr chart again -

With Resistance becoming support , why is 1.340013 impossible ? All hope rest on the buyers @ .3697 right below
the shakeout(That came with some supply) on the 4 hr chart-i think ..
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,247
  • Feb 26, 2011 11:26am Feb 26, 2011 11:26am
a couple of things that will get you in the trade late but will be a sure thing

1) test bar after up move started
2) trend bars
3) h stops

remember we spoke about those the other day

bp bar noted by cross hairs was a test , tg did not pick it up but fact it tried to go lower and closed on highs was testing. trend bar blue , h stops under price ... above that bar was entry 35...gapped but i still got fill few days later

stop $2 based on h stops....

I always wait for these sets ups...well nearly always jumped gun on nok and underwater with scuba gear on right now but options are for a few months out

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Quoting Steve Gill
I see esignal has fixed their data from the LSE

Daily chart for comment. I'm seeing strength here - market driven down before their results announced, and results day (friday) price gapped down on high volume (especially considering the problems the London stock exchange had meaning there was only really 1/2 day of trading. We are back into the price area of previous signs of strength with similar volume - the highlighted bar on the 3rd Feb, and stopping volume on the 25th Jan. Prior to that we had clear strength coming in on the 26th Nov through...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,248
  • Feb 26, 2011 11:38am Feb 26, 2011 11:38am
12 hour es .. everything we need to know is in this chart

no demand .. followed by bear volume divergence , DR g and i spoke about this a bit week before last , plan was to sell 1330 tp 1300

we moved just under 1300 on a Libya special discount day. Moved back into resistance Friday. I did not see any weakness on that move. and Dr G played it like a fiddle.I was being a donkey and expected the retrace to test 1310 start at 1316 , poc for most of friday But got stopped for 2 points.

In order to prove strength I want to see some form of test ..1310 would be ideal

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,249
  • Feb 26, 2011 11:42am Feb 26, 2011 11:42am
Quoting malcolmb14
a couple of things that will get you in the trade late but will be a sure thing

1) test bar after up move started
2) trend bars
3) h stops

remember we spoke about those the other day

bp bar noted by cross hairs was a test , tg did not pick it up but fact it tried to go lower and closed on highs was testing. trend bar blue , h stops under price ... above that bar was entry 35...gapped but i still got fill few days later

stop $2 based on h stops....

I always wait for these sets ups...well nearly always jumped gun on nok and underwater...
All valid points, I appreciate you posting them here as well.

I agree that after seeing a sign of strength we should look for testing during a move up before entering above the high of the test bar. However, do you agree with my analysis of signs of strength on the chart? I'm just making sure I'm reading it correctly and not missing something - for example, back in July last year there was twice yesterday's volume on a wide spread up - selling but it was at just over 70p, and now (I believe) we're seeing strength in the low 60s.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,250
  • Feb 26, 2011 11:53am Feb 26, 2011 11:53am
fore sure sings strength is there and in the right area

Quoting Steve Gill
All valid points, I appreciate you posting them here as well.

I agree that after seeing a sign of strength we should look for testing during a move up before entering above the high of the test bar. However, do you agree with my analysis of signs of strength on the chart? I'm just making sure I'm reading it correctly and not missing something - for example, back in July last year there was twice yesterday's volume on a wide spread up - selling but it was at just over 70p, and now (I believe) we're seeing strength in the low 60s.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,251
  • Feb 26, 2011 12:28pm Feb 26, 2011 12:28pm
you only think you can...

Quoting tgwhbb
thank god i can make my own decisions!
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,252
  • Feb 26, 2011 12:53pm Feb 26, 2011 12:53pm
Hi Malcolm,

I hope you are doing great.
I just saw your post about eu for next week. I like the fact that it is also possible to trade VSA on longer TF. I see that you look at a 12h chart to make your analysis but when you say,you want a certain level to be tested with a no demand/test, on which TF do you look for that to happen?

Also, do you still use the hull?
Thanks a lot,
Mel
  • #14,253
  • Feb 26, 2011 12:55pm Feb 26, 2011 12:55pm
back on the track - i think the test of support is not done, at least not until 1.3795 is broken to the upside (my key level for early next week).
to the downside - i would like to see a touch of 1.3690 (or below) before another rally...

and let's not forget monday is last day of this month... february low IS a relevant low (1.3431). if broken... well, we may eat bull steak for quite some time.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,254
  • Feb 26, 2011 1:18pm Feb 26, 2011 1:18pm
Smart money theme song;

Inserted Video
  • #14,255
  • Feb 26, 2011 8:31pm Feb 26, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting Steve Gill
This do? Remember (as was kindly pointed out to me a few days ago) that the volume is delayed one day.
Thanks, but I was looking to see what esignal spot looked like on the daily. I no longer have my futures feed and was looking at esignal or prorealtime. I took a look at the "free" options, but they appear useless on the daily (though usable for intraday mobile updates). I'll be trying both of the mentioned options. I read somewhere that prorealtime used GTIS (esignal) data?

One potential issue I have is that prorealtime is java based, which means the data must be downloaded (rather than being stored locally). Esignal also offers the ability to export data to amibroker (for an independent database).
  • #14,256
  • Feb 26, 2011 10:25pm Feb 26, 2011 10:25pm
OK....Question for Malcolmb and DR G. or whoever wants to answer.

We have seen the highest Volume in the History of EURO..

In my chart I have marked 2 Volumes :

1. highest one when price was in 1.18xx.

2. second one at 1.42xx.

Now first one were buyers which may take the price to the sky if not already.

second one were sellers I believe and the Volume is pretty high there as well... so dont they wanna sell this (more) first in strenght and then take this to the moon...

Here is the weekly chart.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #14,257
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:06am Feb 27, 2011 12:06am
I didn't see a question Raza!

Hard for me to follow a chart without crosshairs, so I'll refer to a futures chart.

Something you didn't mention was the high volume week at the begining of Dec 2010. Futures data has higher volume here than at the peak before the down-move (1.42+). The fact that serious buying was willing to come in at such a point ( 10-12 cent drop) is strong, because big boys can't just flip positions like we can, so they need extended moves to milk a reasonable profit. This suggests to me that the volume you pointed out wasn't the result of a large building of short positions. If it were, I would expect to see much more of a reaction to the retracements at current levels.

I'd also like to go back to the massive volume in May 2010. I can only imagine the size of long positions taken there, and expect that whoever took them had more than 17 cents in mind. Opportunities like that don't come along often. We did of course see more 17 cents, but we did not see an appropriate opposing force.
  • #14,258
  • Feb 27, 2011 1:12am Feb 27, 2011 1:12am
I think EURUSD is going to fall next week...


Quoting malcolmb14
4 hour up trend

60 min stopping

overall day is down day LOW VOLUME

Malco prediction for next week noted on chart

Attachment

Attachment
In Charts We Trust!
  • #14,259
  • Edited 3:02am Feb 27, 2011 1:33am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting Mr J
I didn't see a question Raza!

Hard for me to follow a chart without crosshairs, so I'll refer to a futures chart.

Something you didn't mention was the high volume week at the begining of Dec 2010. Futures data has higher volume here than at the peak before the down-move (1.42+). The fact that serious buying was willing to come in at such a point ( 10-12 cent drop) is strong, because big boys can't just flip positions like we can, so they need extended moves to milk a reasonable profit. This suggests to me that the volume you pointed out wasn't...
The reason I had asked that question is due to the fact that I have a chart which is based on ELLIOT WAVE and what you have

answered goes pefectly with it..

May I ask How long you had been trading for? to say it should be a 17 cents move.....

How do you know it is 17 cents?

And I believe we have not seen those 17 cents yet.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #14,260
  • Feb 27, 2011 2:55am Feb 27, 2011 2:55am
Is there any indi that I can use on MT4 for showing me other TFs such 2H, 8H and 12H?
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