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  • #3,301
  • Feb 24, 2011 7:26pm Feb 24, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting Greenhaze
HI LJ

Spot on analysis. I skiped this trade becouse of the same reasons.
Good trading to You , Sir !
Yep were good reasons to skip this one, and I'm happy I did.

But as I suspected might happen things calmed down this afternoon and this one is working out ok...1.2800 will be the real test....but as long as there is no bearish sentiment tomorrow some weekend profit taking in CHF combined witha bradly strong Euro could easily see this one pop up.

I exited my GJ short @ 132 earlier so a very nice trade and that will probably do me for the week now.
  • #3,302
  • Feb 24, 2011 7:37pm Feb 24, 2011 7:37pm
Quoting unlv_tj
LoveJoy,

Thank you so much for your journal and still stopping by to post a few of your set-ups....
Hey, no worries, thanks for the kind words and glad this thread has helped you in some way...

...but seriously, all my thread contains is some trades, some thoughts and charts.

It's the hard work that the individual puts in that determines whether someone will become successful in applying the methods or not...the reading, studying charts, practicing, demoing, overcome mindset issues...this whole cycle is a long hard process...which is one of the main reasons most wannabe traders don't make it. It can be a hard torturous jorney and most people aren't prepared to perservere and put in the necessary hard work. So really it is yourself you should be thanking...as you are the one that has done the hard work...all I've done is show some basic methods and the potential of these methods.
  • #3,303
  • Edited 10:44pm Feb 24, 2011 10:43pm | Edited 10:44pm
.Sorry about the messed up chart - not sure how that happened!
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  • #3,304
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:13am Feb 25, 2011 2:13am
Quoting lovejoy80
Technically IMO that is a good technical setup, one I would normally take.

But, the reason I did not take it is because like you stated CHF is very strong based on risk aversion flows right now and because of the uncertainty of the Middle East situation I would not be wanting to go short the CHF right now. I do prefer to have the broad market on my side from a fundamental perspective (like with my GJ short) or at the very least not the opposite of the technical setup.

I am pretty cautious in the touch trade setups I take however, some might...
Thanks for the analysis Mark. It was as I expected. I done the same trade with GBP/CHF at 1.4900. Same sort of setup as EUR/CHF, but with the currently weaker GBP, so the reaction has been lackluster, but still enough for 1R. I've been demoing the 50/61 touch and taken every single touch available regardless of sentiment, time of day, etc, so I can document results and get a good understanding of the good and not so good times to play these. After a few months, I'll have a set of rules to play along to. The results so far though have been great.

I want to second UT with my appreciatation for your time and this thread. A real diamond in the rough.
  • #3,305
  • Feb 25, 2011 3:38am Feb 25, 2011 3:38am
Quoting Majestic12
.Sorry about the messed up chart - not sure how that happened!
I was short GJ at the time so wasn't interested in taking a long on another jpy pair...I was hoping it would wait until today to hit this area then as more likely to get some week end profit taking to help it on it's way. But I'm pretty much done for the week, completely flat and it's been a really good week so just chilling and watching rather than risking.

This setup and the ECHF setup were very good technical setups though.
  • #3,306
  • Feb 25, 2011 3:41am Feb 25, 2011 3:41am
Quoting pmn100
Thanks for the analysis Mark. It was as I expected. I done the same trade with GBP/CHF at 1.4900. Same sort of setup as EUR/CHF, but with the currently weaker GBP, so the reaction has been lackluster, but still enough for 1R. I've been demoing the 50/61 touch and taken every single touch available regardless of sentiment, time of day, etc, so I can document results and get a good understanding of the good and not so good times to play these. After a few months, I'll have a set of rules to play along to. The results so far though have been great....
I definitely applaud what you're doing...taking the basic method, researching and testing it to come up with your own set of rules that suit your own personality is key with any method as everyone works differerently which is dicated by your own personality and mindset...unfortunately most people don't even get to this stage or are not willing to put in any hard graft.
  • #3,307
  • Feb 25, 2011 3:50am Feb 25, 2011 3:50am
Quoting lovejoy80
I was short GJ at the time so wasn't interested in taking a long on another jpy pair...I was hoping it would wait until today to hit this area then as more likely to get some week end profit taking to help it on it's way. But I'm pretty much done for the week, completely flat and it's been a really good week so just chilling and watching rather than risking.

This setup and the ECHF setup were very good technical setups though.

Just to add that if I had taken this it would have been on Wednesday i.e. when price firt hit 83 and I would have been stopped out at BE as I would have moved my SL to BE when it hit FTA @ 83.45-50 area...of course it came back and then rebounded yesterday and is continuing up today.

That's why I say it would have been nicer if it had hit this area after the Middle East reaction had calmed down so could be more certain it was willing to rise.

For me I don't like price hanging around a confluenced area, I like price to react quickly move away and not come back again, hence why I often move to BE fairly quickly(ish) ... I will give it more time / room if Im very confident the area will hold, but more often than not I'm wanting price to react and then gain continued momentum - much like what my GJ touch trade did.

I would have also been looking at EP and YM which were giving signs of a reversal last night so on Wednesday it just felt too early for this area on CJ to work out i.e. for a sustained move up to occur hence why I passed and why, if it had hit it last night or today (instead of Wednesday) for the first time I would have definitely taken this trade.

But that's just how I 'work'.
  • #3,308
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:57am Feb 25, 2011 5:57am
So i'm assuming you took this trade given your thoughts above - if not was there a reason why?
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  • #3,309
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:04am Feb 25, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Majestic12
So i'm assuming you took this trade given your thoughts above - if not was there a reason why?
I was short YM so used this as a reason to close out my short...but didn't reverse for a long ( would have taken EP over YM in any case), no real particular reason why, just decided not to - I don't take all trade setups I see at times as I don't need to...I made 5R on GJ short and some more on other trades this week so wasn't fussed about taking more trades, just relaxing, watching and getting on with other projects.

But yes it would be a setup I would take.
  • #3,310
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:23pm Feb 25, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Here is one no brainer touch trade I am in from yesterday.

132.50 initial target just been hit but considering how the market is moving I'm leaving this one in play and just moving the SL down to lock in profit.
Hi LJ, could you explain your entry here a little further. when i look on the daily i see the significant Daily level at 134.20 and i would probably have entered at the 50% fib above it. However you made your entry between the 50 and 60 and i can't make out a level there! i can see why the overall trade is a no brainer but your entry looks quite clever to me ( :
  • #3,311
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:49am Feb 26, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Majestic12
Hi LJ, could you explain your entry here a little further. when i look on the daily i see the significant Daily level at 134.20 and i would probably have entered at the 50% fib above it. However you made your entry between the 50 and 60 and i can't make out a level there! i can see why the overall trade is a no brainer but your entry looks quite clever to me ( :
As you can see I had the 134.20 level marked as a dialy PPZ and I was fully expecting this to hold with the daily BEOB in mind - and as you can see it did hold on the dily TF i.e. price spiked through it and closed below this level.

But I was looking for a more precise potential turning point and the obvious level for me was the intraday ppz and 61.8 fib retracement of the recent swing...which as you can see is where price turned...ideally my entry would have been right on the turning point but price had emoved up fairly fast based on news so I was slightly unprepared otherwise I would have had a limit order there instead of having to enter at market.

Does that clarify things?
  • #3,312
  • Edited 12:44pm Feb 26, 2011 10:05am | Edited 12:44pm
Thanks LJ. What do you think about these potential touch trades. One is EA and one EC charts are 4h - i'm sure your probably aware of the setups - i would probably favor EC over EA as there seems to be more of a trend in place there, would be great to read your thoughts.

Edit - however just noticed that the daily ppz is stronger on EA so maybe this would be a better move
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  • #3,313
  • Feb 26, 2011 10:13am Feb 26, 2011 10:13am
LJ is this the two candles you were referring to on your last post? Thanks so much for all the help. First checked candle is the Bearish Bar, and the 2nd is the candle on news...am I right here?

Quoting lovejoy80
As you can see I had the 134.20 level marked as a dialy PPZ and I was fully expecting this to hold with the daily BEOB in mind - and as you can see it did hold on the dily TF i.e. price spiked through it and closed below this level.

But I was looking for a more precise potential turning point and the obvious level for me was the intraday ppz and 61.8 fib retracement of the recent swing...which as you can see is where price turned...ideally my entry would have been right on the turning point but price had emoved up fairly fast based on news so...
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DM if you have any questions
  • #3,314
  • Feb 26, 2011 10:27am Feb 26, 2011 10:27am
Another question LJ, hope you don't mind. I was reading a fair bit about peaks and valleys in the beginning of your thread and i had never come across this before. I read the corresponding thread briefly and l'm not sure how exactly how you utilize this method in your trading. I would guess it has something to do with playing it between major ppz areas with confluence on the daily using PV's on a lower timeframe - am i near the truth here?
  • #3,315
  • Feb 26, 2011 1:07pm Feb 26, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting jkrick33
LJ is this the two candles you were referring to on your last post? Thanks so much for all the help. First checked candle is the Bearish Bar, and the 2nd is the candle on news...am I right here?
This post shows the 4HR PPZ + fib confluence which was the reason for the touch trade (with the added confluence of the current market sentiment and the daily BEOB).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3296
  • #3,316
  • Feb 26, 2011 1:19pm Feb 26, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting Majestic12
Another question LJ, hope you don't mind. I was reading a fair bit about peaks and valleys in the beginning of your thread and i had never come across this before. I read the corresponding thread briefly and l'm not sure how exactly how you utilize this method in your trading. I would guess it has something to do with playing it between major ppz areas with confluence on the daily using PV's on a lower timeframe - am i near the truth here?
To be honesy my trading has evolved over the course of this thread and I haven't used P&V style methods for a fair while. P&V is useful when markets are trending well which most of the markets are not right now, I would use this style again if some nice trends developed but it's not been a feature of my trading for a while.
  • #3,317
  • Feb 26, 2011 1:21pm Feb 26, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Majestic12
Thanks LJ. What do you think about these potential touch trades. One is EA and one EC charts are 4h - i'm sure your probably aware of the setups - i would probably favor EC over EA as there seems to be more of a trend in place there, would be great to read your thoughts.

Edit - however just noticed that the daily ppz is stronger on EA so maybe this would be a better move
I haven't looked at these pairs closely for a week or so as been busy with the majors but I'll look over them properly when I go over all my charts for the week tomorrow and comment then.
  • #3,318
  • Feb 27, 2011 2:45pm Feb 27, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting Majestic12
Thanks LJ. What do you think about these potential touch trades. One is EA and one EC charts are 4h - i'm sure your probably aware of the setups - i would probably favor EC over EA as there seems to be more of a trend in place there, would be great to read your thoughts.

Edit - however just noticed that the daily ppz is stronger on EA so maybe this would be a better move
Been over my charts for the week now. I would class EUR/AUD as a better setup than EUR/CAD because the PPZ looks stronger to me...but even then neither of these particularly excite me that much to be honest. Both of them are relatively minor daily PPZ's, I mean look at my charts attached, these are much stronger setups on these two pairs...and it's these types of setups I'd be looking to take on the minor pairs like this.

I look at the current potential setups and yeah they are confluenced areas, but they just dont jump out at me as particularly great ones. I'm also looking at UC, EU and AU and looking for supporting confluence from these pairs (i.e. if AU was at strong resistance and EU at support then this would give me additional confluence...but UC, EU and AU aren't really telling me much about ECAD and EAUD right now in terms of expected decent moves).

As I don't trade pairs like this very often I prefer to stick to the really good setups like thes ones mentioned...I only really take intraday or less than A+ setups on the major as I know these pairs fairly well in terms of how they flow as I watch them day in day out, so for me I will most likely pass on these....but that is just my view of course.
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  • #3,319
  • Feb 27, 2011 3:05pm Feb 27, 2011 3:05pm
Thanks for the insights LJ
  • #3,320
  • Edited 5:43am Feb 28, 2011 5:01am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting Majestic12
Thanks for the insights LJ
I actually changed my mind and decided I would take the EAUD setup due to some fundamental confluence arising out of China overnight plus with AU being near its weekly resistance area...but my pending order was not hit this morning.

I did take this setup though.
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