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Still Learning the "System"

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 24, 2011 2:47pm Feb 24, 2011 2:47pm
Here's my chart setup. Just waiting for the buy or sell setups to trigger.
All D1 TF with fib pivots set to 10080.
Demo Acct = USD $ 25,000
1 lot size
SL = 75 - 125 pips +/-
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  • #2
  • Feb 24, 2011 7:25pm Feb 24, 2011 7:25pm
I am waiting for the buy signal on D1
Stop Loss = 81.50
Take profit = 83.00
Entry ?? 82.10 maybe
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  • #3
  • Feb 24, 2011 10:09pm Feb 24, 2011 10:09pm
Hi,

i agree with you. It is a good time to go Long.
Support at 79.62 would be very strong, not likely to go thru just yet.

On the 4 hourly, the lows are building up.

My humble opinions here ....

For good profit, u can go in now actually.

For safer entry, zoom into the M15 or M30, wait for another higher low to form. we have one point forming now at 81.88, above 81.62. Wait for price to move upside, retraced back. See where it holds. If it holds higher than 81.88 well, time to go in. Profit though would be lower.

I think it might shoot above 82.61, and fall back to 82.35 for support or 82.03 for support. But have to bear in mind it is a position against trend, risk is higher though, esp at trendline resistance, bound to get dirty there.

Your TP looks good and safe, SL .... if 81.6 doesn't hold, u will get hit anyway .... can put it just below 81.6 .... or below 81.08. If this fails, that means the long position is wrong at this time.
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  • #4
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:34am Feb 25, 2011 7:34am
Quoting UgoDadeo
I am waiting for the buy signal on D1
Stop Loss = 81.50
Take profit = 83.00
Entry ?? 82.10 maybe
ugo, friend...
i am also trying the freebie setup in the h4 as i dont have too many time to look at the market.
so far, i'm not getting that much of the valid setup signal.

in your example, how can it be a valid setup signal when the big 3 did not fail a fib pivot?
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #5
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:35am Feb 25, 2011 7:35am
I appreciate your feedback. Your charts helped me look at the S&R a little differently.

I'm glad you mentioned the counter-trend trade. I looked at this pair from a different perspective. I went first to the weekly chart. It looks like the USD/JPY started it's downtrend in May of 2010 and continued until October 2010. Since that time, it's been trading sideways between 80 and 85.
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  • #6
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:41am Feb 25, 2011 8:41am
lananpips,

I have struggled with the fib settings since I first loaded the indicator.

Today, I behave like an "ar-teist". This means I will lose an ear, my *** and my account very soon .

Here is my take - the pair has blown through all fib points. Support looks to fill in around 80.80 - 81.20.

We should try to understand how the fib pivots are calculated at the 10080 setting and ask if they will re-paint. If so when?

Let's see if we can work this out.


Quoting lananpips
ugo, friend...
i am also trying the freebie setup in the h4 as i dont have too many time to look at the market.
so far, i'm not getting that much of the valid setup signal.

in your example, how can it be a valid setup signal when the big 3 did not fail a fib pivot?
  • #7
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:53am Feb 25, 2011 8:53am
No thanks required buddy
Just sharing opinions

I just flipped back, looks like if we had gone by the safe entry, the entry long could not be made since there was no distinctive higher lows formed. The resistance level cannot be broken just yet at 82.01.

Now it is testing the same support at 81.66. If it breaks resistance 82.01, it should be a standard double bottom, safe to go long if u have not already ....

Target would be ~ 40pips, ~ 82.45

Good luck for your Long ... Cheers!
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  • #8
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:55am Feb 25, 2011 8:55am
Quoting UgoDadeo
I appreciate your feedback. Your charts helped me look at the S&R a little differently.

I'm glad you mentioned the counter-trend trade. I looked at this pair from a different perspective. I went first to the weekly chart. It looks like the USD/JPY started it's downtrend in May of 2010 and continued until October 2010. Since that time, it's been trading sideways between 80 and 85.
You could look at that as a consolidating triangle with an ascending triangle, with the resistance at topside 83.94. Trading the range would be safe until it breaks out, likely further downside.
  • #9
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:11am Feb 25, 2011 9:11am
Price is stuck 81.60 and 82.06.

I need to understand lananpips fib pivot question better.
Otherwise, I'm just shooting from the hip!
  • #10
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:28pm Feb 25, 2011 12:28pm
lananpips,

This set-up will look better. There is no signal for the D1 TF yet, but H4 gives a "heads-up".



Quoting lananpips
ugo, friend...
i am also trying the freebie setup in the h4 as i dont have too many time to look at the market.
so far, i'm not getting that much of the valid setup signal.

in your example, how can it be a valid setup signal when the big 3 did not fail a fib pivot?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: freebie chart 6.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: freebie chart 7.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #11
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:14pm Feb 25, 2011 1:14pm
lanapips asked about the fib pivots and settings. That forced me to try and learn more about the settings and options on the MT4 indicator.

So I right click on the chart and select the "Indicators List"

Double click on "Fib Pivots" to open the Custom Indicator settings
First Tab is "Common" - Make sure "Allow DLL Imports" is checked.
(this was checked on some of my charts and not on others )
Next Tab is "Inputs"
Variables are:
pivots = True / False
camarilla = True / False
midpivots = True / False
MyPeriod = 10080
Next tab is "Colors"
Setting is # = 0; Color = 255,255,255; Width= thin line; Style=solid line
Finally, last tab is "Visualization"
"All Timeframes" is checked
"Show in the data window" is checked.

Ok, so lets work out the "Input" settings and make sure to allow DLL imports.

Next Tab is "Inputs"
Variables are:
pivots = True
camarilla = False
midpivots = False
MyPeriod = 10080


Does this make sense to anyone??
  • #12
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:13pm Feb 25, 2011 5:13pm
Fib Pivots Input settings:

pivots = Should be False
camarilla = Should be True
midpivots = False
MyPeriod = Should be 1440

Let me know if this works better for you


Quoting UgoDadeo
Ok, so lets work out the "Input" settings and make sure to allow DLL imports.

Next Tab is "Inputs"
Variables are:
pivots = True
camarilla = False
midpivots = False
MyPeriod = 10080


Does this make sense to anyone??
  • #13
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:52pm Feb 25, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting UgoDadeo
Fib Pivots Input settings:

pivots = Should be False
camarilla = Should be True
midpivots = False
MyPeriod = Should be 1440

Let me know if this works better for you

Hi ugo,

If I am not mistaken in the original thread, the Fibpivot setting should be as follows:

MyPeriod set to 1440 if we are trading timeframes below H4 and My Period set to 10080 if we are trading the H4 or daily timeframe. Can't remember the exact post the preceding settings were mentioned.
  • #14
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:57pm Feb 25, 2011 7:57pm
Thank you ans,

This is where I have struggled. Take a look at the two charts, both set for daily TF. When I set the period to 10080, I end up with charts that "blow through" the supports or resistance levels.

Only by changing the settings to 1440 can I get useful S&R's on all charts.

What do you think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #15
  • Feb 26, 2011 6:34pm Feb 26, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting UgoDadeo
lananpips,
This set-up will look better. There is no signal for the D1 TF yet, but H4 gives a "heads-up".
Did you put a trade on the signal?

You know I'm thinking, the trade samples they have on the original thread is mostly on H1 and 15min TF.

We are trying to get signals from H4 and Daily.

Trading in lower TF is like scalping while trading in higher TF should give more pips.

Maybe there's really less valid signals on the higher TF.
... and we really just need to be patient.
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #16
  • Feb 26, 2011 6:55pm Feb 26, 2011 6:55pm
Hi lananpips,

I did not put any trades on yet. I am using the H1 and H4 TF's only as a "get ready" signal. This let's me think about stop-loss position, lot size and take profit levels.

What do you think about the fib pivot period settings?
Does 1440 work for you?

Quoting lananpips
Did you put a trade on the signal?

You know I'm thinking, the trade samples they have on the original thread is mostly on H1 and 15min TF.

We are trying to get signals from H4 and Daily.

Trading in lower TF is like scalping while trading in higher TF should give more pips.

Maybe there's really less valid signals on the higher TF.
... and we really just need to be patient.
  • #17
  • Feb 26, 2011 7:45pm Feb 26, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting UgoDadeo
Hi lananpips,

I did not put any trades on yet. I am using the H1 and H4 TF's only as a "get ready" signal. This let's me think about stop-loss position, lot size and take profit levels.

What do you think about the fib pivot period settings?
Does 1440 work for you?
with the signals you will get from there, i'm assuming you will then put a trade based on the daily's trend direction... that should be a good plan.

1440 is the default and that's what i'm using.

i got one valid signal so far and i posted it on the other thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post4421343

but so far, nothing yet on the pairs i'm watching: uj, eu, ej and gu.
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #18
  • Feb 27, 2011 11:54am Feb 27, 2011 11:54am
That was a nice trade



Quoting lananpips
with the signals you will get from there, i'm assuming you will then put a trade based on the daily's trend direction... that should be a good plan.

1440 is the default and that's what i'm using.

i got one valid signal so far and i posted it on the other thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post4421343

but so far, nothing yet on the pairs i'm watching: uj, eu, ej and gu.
  • #19
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:14pm Feb 27, 2011 12:14pm
Ok...I think we have settled on our chart settings.
The demo account size is $ 25,000.00
Leverage is 50:1 but should not be a factor for this trial.
Since it is a Demo account, I want to experiment with 5% risk.
Later, I may add the idea that R:R of less than 1 takes smaller lot (e.g., 0.5x) and R:R of over 1.4 takes bigger ot size (like 1.5x).

Originally Posted by hanover http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The calculation is:
#lots = Acct_ size$ x %risk_per_trade x 0.1 / stoploss_pips

  • #20
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:22pm Feb 27, 2011 12:22pm
I would like to trade three (3) pairs. I would prefer that they be major pairs. And I would like them to be as un-correlated as reasonably possible.

I have at least some very basic fundamental familiarity with the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY. My third choice is the USD/CHF. But I know exactly squat about the Swiss economy. Anyway, for the moment - that's the plan.

Do you have sources you like for research?

For example, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup?
And what about independent bloggers?
Any favorites in this space?
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