EU is finally starting to pay off, after hours of nursing that trade through the late US and early Asian session as it tested and retested 1.38. 
- #14,102
- Edited 7:54pm Feb 24, 2011 7:31pm | Edited 7:54pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trading, Not Posting | 2,130 Posts
to obvious.... I am long 3500 eu and 1.6 gu ..targets 700 pip eu and 500 gu . Chat to you all in March lol
there are always 2 sides to a coin right? The wicks certainly don't look good, but those last 3 weeks price is drifting down on lowering volume...
been watching those for a while. the fact, that the last pin did not manage to close below the previous weeks pin on a vol surge makes the picture not all to clear here since we should have seen more downside action.
with the steady downdrift to 3500 we for sure have taken a whole lot of stops.
todays daily bar is very interesting to be honest, compared to the last time we hit this spot (last friday, first bar marked). of shape & position it for sure is a test. an upday on monday would confirm it and we did not close below the lows of last...
LOL -I make it a rule to NEVER short after 3 mini upthrusts in a row. Price VERY often goes up next. I see this as a SM tactic.
So, I'm putting on my Mallerina shows, takin' Tgwhbb along with my Intel CPU to the fine Dr. G's place, lol!
I still think the underside of the blue uptrend channel (prev chart) will be significant resistance, but just wanted to acknowledge everyone's advice & feeling on this - obviously what they want you to think and what you expect isn't what happens in this vicious game. Hope too many others didn't lose bucks banking on this.
Great to have everyone's input & insight on this journey ... I am prolly way over 7k screen hours and while good at PA & getting better at VSA, this is one of those experiences you store in your repertoire of experience for future expectations.
I'll be the dorky Dad ... haven't been using a wheelchair for a while! 
- #14,103
- Feb 24, 2011 9:03pm Feb 24, 2011 9:03pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'm the greatest, man | 2,516 Posts
- #14,104
- Feb 24, 2011 9:04pm Feb 24, 2011 9:04pm
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Fading the specs | 1,374 Posts
- #14,107
- Edited 9:32pm Feb 24, 2011 9:20pm | Edited 9:32pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
So, I'm putting on my Mallerina shows, takin' Tgwhbb along with my Intel CPU to the fine Dr. G's place, lol!
I would like others interpretation of the last 3 days - see attached. Today's volume seems quite high with relatively little movement, and not able to move above the previous attempt at this level. Anyone else concerned with that?
EDIT: Also wondering if its again my broker volume that is misleading...
Change is the only constant
- #14,108
- Feb 24, 2011 10:30pm Feb 24, 2011 10:30pm
- | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,157 Posts
EUR/USD continue from last post.
Action for Thu 24-Feb.
Action in 4th Box.
D1:
- See potential Long target at a longer timeframe at "SR Daily Zone" around 1.4210.
- See Daily Upcoming Resistance around 1.3800 to 1.3860.
- Wed 23-Feb, price continue up trend, approaching Daily Resistance 1.3825.
- The price Thu 24-Feb actually touched Daily Resistance of 1.3820, as expected.
- Now possible indecision or range around 1.3800 to 1.3860.
H1:
- Originally only drawn 1st Box to 4th Box. Now drawing further boxes with same idea.
- May need to re-adjust the 5th and 6th box due to the Daily Resistance of 1.3820. Just wait for the box to develop.
- The Black Lines for Boxes were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 4th Box was around 80pips.
- After the "Possible Sellers" that touched 4th Box High, price did go down to 4th Box Low, with a perfect bounce of 4th Box Low.
- Price then progressed slowly to 5th Box by touching Daily Resistance of 1.3820.
- That turned out to be a Long Doji, Indecision.
- Wait now for Test of this Doji Low around 1.3765, to see where price is going. We may range for today Fri 25-Feb.
M15:
- Originally only drawn 1st Box to 4th Box. Now drawing further boxes with same idea.
- May need to re-adjust the 5th and 6th box due to the Daily Resistance of 1.3820. Just wait for the box to develop.
- All the long horizontal lines were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 4th Box was around 80pips.
- Price went from High 4th Box to Low 4th Box, back to High 4th Box.
- Perfect bounce Test of 4th Box Low for ideal Long entry around 1.3704.
- Price then slowly go up into 5th Box to touch Daily Resistance 1.3820, as expected.
- That was the UpThrust to Resistance. Followed by a DownThrust.
- This combination of UpThrust and DownThrust is Indecision.
- Now can see 5th Box has congestion around the box lows during Asia.
- This congestion at 5th Box Low is looking different to the other boxes low.
- Price may not bounce off this 5th Box Low yet, but go down into 4th Box.
- Wait for future Test of the DownThrust Low around 1.3765 to see where price is going.
Price is progressing nicely up through the Box Stages for now.
As I have a Long position bias, now have to be more careful on analysis as it may become cloudy when you are hopeful because "when you have a position" versus "when you don't have a position" is different.
For Weakness, I be looking for H1 telling the Weakness of UpThrust to nowhere, increasing prices with low volume during busy sessions, or the new boxes width suddenly increasing or decreasing by a big margin.
It could still range for a while.
If anyone seeing these type of signals, let me know, in case I am too hopeful of Longs.
Action for Thu 24-Feb.
Action in 4th Box.
D1:
- See potential Long target at a longer timeframe at "SR Daily Zone" around 1.4210.
- See Daily Upcoming Resistance around 1.3800 to 1.3860.
- Wed 23-Feb, price continue up trend, approaching Daily Resistance 1.3825.
- The price Thu 24-Feb actually touched Daily Resistance of 1.3820, as expected.
- Now possible indecision or range around 1.3800 to 1.3860.
H1:
- Originally only drawn 1st Box to 4th Box. Now drawing further boxes with same idea.
- May need to re-adjust the 5th and 6th box due to the Daily Resistance of 1.3820. Just wait for the box to develop.
- The Black Lines for Boxes were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 4th Box was around 80pips.
- After the "Possible Sellers" that touched 4th Box High, price did go down to 4th Box Low, with a perfect bounce of 4th Box Low.
- Price then progressed slowly to 5th Box by touching Daily Resistance of 1.3820.
- That turned out to be a Long Doji, Indecision.
- Wait now for Test of this Doji Low around 1.3765, to see where price is going. We may range for today Fri 25-Feb.
M15:
- Originally only drawn 1st Box to 4th Box. Now drawing further boxes with same idea.
- May need to re-adjust the 5th and 6th box due to the Daily Resistance of 1.3820. Just wait for the box to develop.
- All the long horizontal lines were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 4th Box was around 80pips.
- Price went from High 4th Box to Low 4th Box, back to High 4th Box.
- Perfect bounce Test of 4th Box Low for ideal Long entry around 1.3704.
- Price then slowly go up into 5th Box to touch Daily Resistance 1.3820, as expected.
- That was the UpThrust to Resistance. Followed by a DownThrust.
- This combination of UpThrust and DownThrust is Indecision.
- Now can see 5th Box has congestion around the box lows during Asia.
- This congestion at 5th Box Low is looking different to the other boxes low.
- Price may not bounce off this 5th Box Low yet, but go down into 4th Box.
- Wait for future Test of the DownThrust Low around 1.3765 to see where price is going.
Price is progressing nicely up through the Box Stages for now.
As I have a Long position bias, now have to be more careful on analysis as it may become cloudy when you are hopeful because "when you have a position" versus "when you don't have a position" is different.
For Weakness, I be looking for H1 telling the Weakness of UpThrust to nowhere, increasing prices with low volume during busy sessions, or the new boxes width suddenly increasing or decreasing by a big margin.
It could still range for a while.
If anyone seeing these type of signals, let me know, in case I am too hopeful of Longs.
- #14,112
- Feb 25, 2011 1:30am Feb 25, 2011 1:30am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,367 Posts
After discussing with Malc some stock based setups, I thought I'd post this one of XCH in the UK. Any comments?
I bought in on the successful test on the 14th, perhaps I should have waited. Comments on that?
The U. wide spread down bar closed right down towards the low which is weak. The next bar has high volume (comparatively speaking) but spread isn't very wide and it closes only a little bit up. This shows there may not have been much buying going on in the U. wide bar. Your test bar closes in the lower portion which is not good for a test particularly if the next bar isn't a good sized up bar. Still looking a bit weak.
Its just painted a small SO on the daily and is confirmed so we may see a very short term up move. But, the weekly is in the process of printing a low volume SO. These are generally not good for a sustained up move.
All in all, if there was a huge amount of buying in the u. wide bar, it hasn't shown up in the charts yet.
- #14,117
- Edited 3:16am Feb 25, 2011 2:46am | Edited 3:16am
as seen here on EURUSD M15 chart,
we have a possible stopping volume..
let's see next candle as a up candle and see if price reverses from here..
and yes i love pink charts lol
EDIT: Wrong setup , not stopping volume cos price was not having a clear direction or momentum on the left hand side
therefore this Red candle did not stop any momentum.
we have a possible stopping volume..
let's see next candle as a up candle and see if price reverses from here..
and yes i love pink charts lol
EDIT: Wrong setup , not stopping volume cos price was not having a clear direction or momentum on the left hand side
therefore this Red candle did not stop any momentum.
- #14,118
- Feb 25, 2011 2:48am Feb 25, 2011 2:48am
I was sent a PM about NOK and thought I'd post it here for everyone to comment.
I'm personally bullish on Nokia - watch what happened prior to the recent news - no real signs of major weakness - in fact there was a test on the 8th Feb, just prior to a gap up through previous resistance from October last year.
I'd go as far as to say the smart money was bullish pre the news, and are just using this as an excuse to buy more at bargain prices. Gap downs with signs of strength are surely excellent signs for higher prices in the future - perhaps...
Thanks again for sharing,
wasnt around to reply u earlier
will keep an eye on that NOK
- #14,119
- Edited 3:20am Feb 25, 2011 2:50am | Edited 3:20am
- Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts
as is said yesterday, to me es is done here, at least for now.
i always pay big attenton to the globex action since it often guides the cash session. yesterday we had a rapid selloff to mark the lows which we later rallied off of. 2am cst always is a crucial point for the es as you can see.
i have plotted the cci30 which is the only indicator i have on one of my charts to spot for such divergences as comfirmations to go big when in alignment with vsa.
i think es can reach 1315 before the us market opens. if this plays out a mark down to 1307/1310 would be my desired spot to buy again.
1310 i see as spot for the final takeoff in general.
the last days es always was only in consolidation mode when eur rallied, not more. if eur did not hold it up es dropped. this behavior has changed since yesterdays evening, not paying much attention to eur downside. until now. this adds to my bullish view.
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/7...0225094342.png
the boys show their hands on the close on a regular basis, by positioning for the coming day(s). thats why i prefer the es over everything else and it never got me as mad as currencies
in the globex session the algos complete the mission.
if es is done here, which based on the amount of activity could be on the cards, we could well see a pretty decent rally.
on wednesday es was bought in the close, followed by a shakeout on thursday where it was bought into the close again.
just see that chart and how we trade at that level. there is no chaos in markets.
in fact, asap as i made some points i will grab a big chunk of my daytrading margin to add big in the right spots and only risk floating profit aka house money. this is the way to do it if the moment is there. overleverage-yes, but only if you know how to handle it and don't risk cash in your account. that's how i do it, the times it erased my floating profit of the current daytrade are a more than small percentage of the time i ended up 10% on the day. to make it short, i use pyramiding, adding to a winning position.
http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/5...0225095615.png
save this post, i have mentioned a few "secrets" which i observated over the time and which can guide you on the es. in fact, trading the es alone and getting to know it is all you need to rip it big.
i always pay big attenton to the globex action since it often guides the cash session. yesterday we had a rapid selloff to mark the lows which we later rallied off of. 2am cst always is a crucial point for the es as you can see.
i have plotted the cci30 which is the only indicator i have on one of my charts to spot for such divergences as comfirmations to go big when in alignment with vsa.
i think es can reach 1315 before the us market opens. if this plays out a mark down to 1307/1310 would be my desired spot to buy again.
1310 i see as spot for the final takeoff in general.
the last days es always was only in consolidation mode when eur rallied, not more. if eur did not hold it up es dropped. this behavior has changed since yesterdays evening, not paying much attention to eur downside. until now. this adds to my bullish view.
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/7...0225094342.png
the boys show their hands on the close on a regular basis, by positioning for the coming day(s). thats why i prefer the es over everything else and it never got me as mad as currencies
in the globex session the algos complete the mission.
if es is done here, which based on the amount of activity could be on the cards, we could well see a pretty decent rally.
on wednesday es was bought in the close, followed by a shakeout on thursday where it was bought into the close again.
just see that chart and how we trade at that level. there is no chaos in markets.
in fact, asap as i made some points i will grab a big chunk of my daytrading margin to add big in the right spots and only risk floating profit aka house money. this is the way to do it if the moment is there. overleverage-yes, but only if you know how to handle it and don't risk cash in your account. that's how i do it, the times it erased my floating profit of the current daytrade are a more than small percentage of the time i ended up 10% on the day. to make it short, i use pyramiding, adding to a winning position.
http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/5...0225095615.png
save this post, i have mentioned a few "secrets" which i observated over the time and which can guide you on the es. in fact, trading the es alone and getting to know it is all you need to rip it big.
- #14,120
- Feb 25, 2011 3:11am Feb 25, 2011 3:11am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,367 Posts
as seen here on EURUSD M15 chart,
we have a possible stopping volume..
let's see next candle as a up candle and see if price reverses from here..
and yes i love pink charts lol