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Price Action Trading - EUR/USD

  • #21
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:22am Feb 23, 2011 8:22am
Closed Trade ----- 4.8pip @ 3724. The move downside was too strong.
Indicates that price is not ready to break upside yet of 3750.

Lucky that i did. 3 lower lows at 3721, 3719 then much lower after i dump that position .... another failed position.

Together with an speech by ECB Trichet around midnight, price action mi
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  • #22
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:38am Feb 23, 2011 8:38am
Took some short trades along the way .... and the position is the one with the longest line

But in summary, the position was almost successful, but failed to hit target. Nope, i didn't set trailing stop .... as i was monitoring my position, and also trailing stops has the potential to prevent the position from realizing its full potential most of the time if there is a sharp retracement
  • #23
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:18am Feb 23, 2011 11:18am
On hindsight, it seems my trade was still right. My price target of 3768 was hit right after the sharp retracement .... What a waste ....

But it is better than being caught in the red and bitting fingernails
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  • #24
  • Edited 11:39am Feb 23, 2011 11:20am | Edited 11:39am
Not being able to long my previous position to price target (worth 50pips).... i did the next best thing. I short it down from 3765 & 3780 to catch 15 and 18 pip respectively .....

That is a consolation prize though
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  • #25
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:37am Feb 23, 2011 11:37am
Let's summarize the past trading sessions on the positions, excluding the pip profits from those spot trades .....

22/2: 21pip+49pip = 70pip
23/3: 0.9pip+4.8pip+15+18pip = 38pip

Decent so far for 2 days .....
  • #26
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:50am Feb 24, 2011 1:50am
Short Diversion here from EUR/USD .....

Took a paper trade in EUR/GBP in this link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=281606

It looks like a Gartney Pattern to me.

Got a 79% retracement from the 1st up move (8336 to 8674)
Got a 50% retracement from the 2nd down move (8674 to 8388)
Got a 3rd down move below the previous low of 8388 .....

Took a paper trade in the Long direction when it breaks 8487, targeting the top at 8674 (TP slightly lower at 8648), SL 8429. Good profit to loss ratio.... but i seemed like a many days wait ..... i will just leave it to run

If i m wrong, at most i return the profit i have got for the past 2 days. If i m right..... then that would be my BULL RUN
  • #27
  • Feb 24, 2011 9:43am Feb 24, 2011 9:43am
Broke the resistance at 8527 !!!
But i am watching the trade, ever ready to get out before it retraces backward..... SL shifted to 8535, and TP trigger on hand.

After exit i can always re-enter upon its retracement at suitable levels....
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  • #28
  • Feb 24, 2011 9:52am Feb 24, 2011 9:52am
Trade Closed. Done for the Day. From 0.8487 to 0.8533 ----> 46pips for today.

Pretty sure it would head higher, but didn't want to hold the position over-night.
  • #29
  • Feb 24, 2011 10:44am Feb 24, 2011 10:44am
Shucks .... think i am infected. Starting to look around while i can't make any position call for EURUSD.

Taking a long position for AUDUSD with the buildup of higher low at 9988, 0001, 0045 and current 0070. Very bullish.

Entry at 1.00955, SL 1.00675, TP 1.01421
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  • #30
  • Feb 24, 2011 11:13am Feb 24, 2011 11:13am
SL shifted down to 1.00380. Trend is still upside, but support at 1.0070 doesn't look like it can hold. No point trying my luck when i sleep in a while .... but i doubt there would be a steeper retracement of more than 79% (1.0059)

However it also looks like a Gartney Pattern forming up.....
  • #31
  • Feb 24, 2011 12:23pm Feb 24, 2011 12:23pm
Looks like i am wrong .... and reason to rejoice
The Gartney is not valid, but the support is holding at 0070. A higher high has been formed, and a high low. Once the current high of 0090 is taken out, it will test 0098.

Now, this pair is worth doing a carry trade as compared to EURGDP that i was trading earlier.

Well .... i didn't mention i took another long at this breakup level .... well ... that is just for a few pips that's all, nothing worth mentioning ...heheh
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  • #32
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:28pm Feb 24, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting ken_wongyl
Broke the resistance at 8527 !!!
But i am watching the trade, ever ready to get out before it retraces backward..... SL shifted to 8535, and TP trigger on hand.

After exit i can always re-enter upon its retracement at suitable levels....
Great! This pair hit the 123% extension. Looking good for a retracement back to 8530 level. But i am not going into this pair. 1 position at a time. I m still holding into a good run on AUD/USD
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  • #33
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:42pm Feb 24, 2011 8:42pm
Back to commentaries for AUDUSD pair ... i wonder why i left my EURUSD title pair .... hahaha

Good buildup of lower highs so far, accelerated trendline is holding, but it is testing heavy resistance at this zone of 0126 to 0111, will take a while to clear. I don't expect it to clear 0155 on 1st try. That might be a good position to short for retracement.

But for now, even if there is a retracement which is not likely, it would hold close to my buying price of 0097. Or at worse, 0068 or 0053. But it is not likely to retrace so far down yet, at least not before touching the finishing line at or close to 0155.
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  • #34
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:05am Feb 25, 2011 12:05am
Me and my big mouth ... hahaha

Now it is retracing ... hahah
Let's see where the support will hold. May 38.2% (0110) or 50%, even 61.8%

The faster it bounce up, the more crazily bullish, and the faster i can close my position ...heheheh ... wat happen next is not my problem then .... target will be reached.
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  • #35
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:13am Feb 25, 2011 12:13am
Very bullish with these strong rejects here from the 0116 level. If it is turning at this 23.6% ..... sounds Fantastic to me !!!

We have what candlesticks would call a bullish hammer!!!
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  • #36
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:04am Feb 25, 2011 2:04am
Back to EURUSD finally..... think there would be something interesting today ....

Placed a short at 3858. I expect the bulls to make a final push up to this resistance, before strong selling take over to push the retracement segment down. Assuming it tops at 3860, chances are good for a retracement to 50% (~3700) or 62% (3650).

Don't mistaken, i m not bearish, maybe for just today, but next week would likely be another week testing the resistance at 3860. SL is at 3930 to allow for crazy bulls .... i doubt price would even come a mile to this SL. TP at 50% retracement slightly higher 3722
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  • #37
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:10am Feb 25, 2011 2:10am
Quoting ken_wongyl
Very bullish with these strong rejects here from the 0116 level. If it is turning at this 23.6% ..... sounds Fantastic to me !!!

We have what candlesticks would call a bullish hammer!!!
Closing off the trade .... taking much too long to reach TP. Maybe i m still right, but the longer it holds there, the stronger the potential for a deeper retracement. Took my profit at 0098. Not risking my trade for that few pips more.

Open 0095, Close 0120 for Profit of 25pips.
  • #38
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:59am Feb 25, 2011 8:59am
Quoting ken_wongyl
Back to EURUSD finally..... think there would be something interesting today ....

Placed a short at 3858. I expect the bulls to make a final push up to this resistance, before strong selling take over to push the retracement segment down. Assuming it tops at 3860, chances are good for a retracement to 50% (~3700) or 62% (3650).

Don't mistaken, i m not bearish, maybe for just today, but next week would likely be another week testing the resistance at 3860. SL is at 3930 to allow for crazy bulls .... i doubt price would even come a mile to this...
Short Trade cancelled. Price didn't manage to trigger and the steep retracement started. What a waste ....
  • #39
  • Feb 25, 2011 11:23am Feb 25, 2011 11:23am
Quoting ken_wongyl
Short Trade cancelled. Price didn't manage to trigger and the steep retracement started. What a waste ....
Instead of the original short, with this sharp retracement back to 79% level of the move upside from 3706 to 3833, I made a Long entry targeting close to the top at 3808. SL at 3720.


The timing of this entry was poor at 50% retracement. Not a good enter point when the trend is still down, and i make a long position. Stupid !!! As long as the higher low holds, it should reach back and try to crack the resistance 3860
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  • #40
  • Feb 25, 2011 11:31am Feb 25, 2011 11:31am
Summary for this week's trading 26 Feb 2011

Tue 22/3 - 70pip
Wed23/3 - 38pip
Thu 24/3 - 46pip
Fri 25/3 - 25pip

Total - 179pip

Positive results everyday for this week!!!

One outstanding position at the moment in EUR/USD, by Mon, we should see some results from there ....
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