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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #941
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:55pm Feb 23, 2011 10:55pm
I've been posting this chart for a while now, and see that we have finally broken south of the descending magenta TL - admittedly, if spanned in onto a 1hr chart and so perhaps not indicative of any long-term trend. (EDIT - perhaps a little confusing - the trend is certainly down, but now that price is in unchartered territory, I'm not so sure what will happen next, and so am cautious of calling it either way.)

Erm, I'm running out of space here at the bottom as what you see on the monthly is all that I get.

Anybody got something with more data? Not that it would matter, as this, if I am correct in assumption - the mother of all trip ups, and an indication that I have yet to hit Google - is the lowest level yet in UC.
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  • #942
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:09pm Feb 23, 2011 11:09pm
...will she move back above, or not?

Come on London, show the way.
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  • #943
  • Edited 11:34pm Feb 23, 2011 11:17pm | Edited 11:34pm
Hi Guys, A limited but perfect bounce at that white TL (middle of 3 shown here) along with buyers and a break of a low timeframe trend, but lots of wood to chop should a upwards move take hold.

EDIT: Nevermind ... back down to a new low, 81.9. I've really got a love/hate thing going on with the yens ...
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  • #944
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:34pm Feb 23, 2011 11:34pm
Quoting Beljevina
EDIT: Nevermind ... back down to a new low. I've really got a love/hate thing going on with the yens ...
Take a look at USDJPY the last time TED spread was above 0.2 (which I've been ranting about since last week) on a weekly basis...what was the date of that again? Oh that's right...May 6 2010
  • #945
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:39pm Feb 23, 2011 11:39pm
You're scaring me...

Dollar being hammered, the Middle East in turmoil, warnings that oil could hit $220 a barrel, and the dictator in Saudi offering bribes to keep a populace quiet whilst not understanding that it is the plutocracy that they want to be rid of.

Quoting sinner-
Take a look at USDJPY the last time TED spread was above 0.2 (which I've been ranting about since last week) on a weekly basis...what was the date of that again? Oh that's right...May 6 2010
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #946
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:42pm Feb 23, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting 45Condor
You're scaring me...

Dollar being hammered, the Middle East in turmoil, warnings that oil could hit $220 a barrel, and the dictator in Saudi offering bribes to keep a populace quiet whilst not understanding that it is the plutocracy that they want to be rid of.
You forgot Corn limit down.
  • #947
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:45pm Feb 23, 2011 11:45pm
I forgot to take a quick scalp short on Cable this morning, that's what I forgot.

Pff... so many considerations that one can often miss the wood for the trees.

Quoting sinner-
You forgot Corn limit down.
EDIT: Damn, it was so obvious that once past the DP, we would head for the WP. Right, who's up for the MP?
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  • #948
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:57pm Feb 23, 2011 11:57pm
Quoting 45Condor
I forgot to take a quick scalp short on Cable this morning, that's what I forgot.

Pff... so many considerations that one can often miss the wood for the trees.



EDIT: Damn, it was so obvious that once past the DP, we would head for the WP. Right, who's up for the MP?
None of us is right all the time, maybe Bernanke steps in to stop it from happening twice and I wake up tomorrow back OTM?

We won't know till it prints on the chart...
  • #949
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:59pm Feb 23, 2011 11:59pm
Small guess - if Cable breaks below 1.6145, we hit D-S2 or further today. Place your bets.
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  • #950
  • Feb 24, 2011 12:02am Feb 24, 2011 12:02am
Curious that both UC,Cable, and EU have plummeted this last hour or so.
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  • #951
  • Feb 24, 2011 12:21am Feb 24, 2011 12:21am
Quoting 45Condor
You're scaring me...

Dollar being hammered, the Middle East in turmoil, warnings that oil could hit $220 a barrel, and the dictator in Saudi offering bribes to keep a populace quiet whilst not understanding that it is the plutocracy that they want to be rid of.
Oh my, didn't hear the $220 number!

Kind of hoping we get this. If you believe one can use TA towards the VIX, it's up against the 200 day MA (on a daily view). Problem with the VIX of course is, once it gets going, it's exponential.
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  • #952
  • Feb 24, 2011 12:23am Feb 24, 2011 12:23am
$220

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ld-double.html

Quoting Beljevina
Oh my, didn't hear the $220 number!

Kind of hoping we get this. If you believe one can use TA towards the VIX, it's up against the 200 day MA (on a daily view). Problem with the VIX of course is, once it gets going, it's exponential.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #953
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:02am Feb 24, 2011 1:02am
Quoting 45Condor
You're scaring me...

Dollar being hammered, the Middle East in turmoil, warnings that oil could hit $220 a barrel, and the dictator in Saudi offering bribes to keep a populace quiet whilst not understanding that it is the plutocracy that they want to be rid of.
Dictator??? Please show some respect, Sir! This is an esteemed royal family, the highly respected House of Saud, not some kind of autocratic, despot dictatorship with an appalling track record of human rights abuses, where there exists a zero tolerance to all political opponents.
  • #954
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:15am Feb 24, 2011 2:15am
Sorry, forgot my place... me being a wine-drinking, Western-woman loving infidel.

Nice to see you around Gammase1. Would be better to read some of your fundie thoughts.

...and did you finally get to see Wall Street?

Quoting gammase1
Dictator??? Please show some respect, Sir! This is an esteemed royal family, the highly respected House of Saud, not some kind of autocratic, despot dictatorship with an appalling track record of human rights abuses, where there exists a zero tolerance to all political opponents.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #955
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:37am Feb 24, 2011 2:37am
Quoting 45Condor
Sorry, forgot my place... me being a wine-drinking, Western-woman loving infidel.

Nice to see you around Gammase1. Would be better to read some of your fundie thoughts.

...and did you finally get to see Wall Street?
Yes, I finally saw Wall Street last week and was, like yourself, slightly disappointed with the heavy emphasis on the personal lives of the characters - too schmaltzy and sentimental for my liking. I did, however, enjoy the look back on the events of the past few years and thought Michael Douglas was superb.


In what part of France do you reside? My girlfriend is from Orleans and I tend to visit the in-laws, who enjoy a fantastic quality of life, a few times a year.

I'll put together some fundie thoughts very soon. At the moment, I am struggling to keep up with the pace of events and the potential gargantuan effects the unfolding drama could have on the global economy. Very interesting times.
  • #956
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:48am Feb 24, 2011 2:48am
Hey kids, just heard the word, earlier before London opened approaching the Tokyo close a 400 mio options straddle was bought ATM, which would place it roughly 82.5-82ish.

Basically a huge bet on an explosive move in one direction or the other, anything outside 83 or 81 would be money.
  • #957
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:10am Feb 24, 2011 3:10am
Quoting sinner-
Hey kids, just heard the word, earlier before London opened approaching the Tokyo close a 400 mio options straddle was bought ATM, which would place it roughly 82.5-82ish.

Basically a huge bet on an explosive move in one direction or the other, anything outside 83 or 81 would be money.
Quite interesting ... so 80 pips to move to the downside, or, 120 up. So, might be a bet that core goods and/or unemployment are crappy. Given there's 2 news items, the odds of each being good to levy this beast over 83 seems like a longshot, not to mention, news good or average, lately just results in USD selling. Could explain what charts might be setting up for in EURUSD too.

Sounds like one of those trades that if we could fund it, we'd be set for a long, long time, lol!
  • #958
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:19am Feb 25, 2011 7:19am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Afternoon All,

Some great posts from the regulars on this thread...nice work 45C and sinner especially.

Price has taken its time to drop and eventually hit the strong 4hr support 5980. my long order was triggered here at 5984 on the 11th and my trailing stop hit after the inflation figures yesterday for +83pips..... re-entered 2nd long at 1.6010 level after 15min pin was formed. stop is break even on this now and will remain there until we breach the purple monthly TL hightlighted on the 4hr chart. Im anticipating a monthly close higher than...
Afternoon All,

Hope everyone has had a good week. There has been some nice swings in price action to scalp of.

Attaching some updated charts. I’m out of all position for now and am waiting for reversal signs around were we are trading at the moment. Single prints at 6280 area where filled as per previous analysis and price decided to drop from there. I exited after the hourly gave a clear triple top on the 23rd and we had successive lower highs forming. The 4hrly is also showing strong bearish divergence.

Given the filling of them single prints was also the first proper test of the descending monthly TL on my daily chart selling pressure is expected around here. I have a potential daily flag formation forming on my charts and we are currently testing the bottom side of the triangle. A clear break through here to the downside could see us heading for single prints located at 5979 area from the 18th Feb profile. However Im more in favour of us doing a fake breakout lower of this price trap on the daily and heading higher for a retest of 6280 zone. Given it is Friday I will stay out and re-enter at valid support or resistance on Monday.

Have a good weekend all

Stocky
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  • #959
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:39pm Feb 25, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting Stocky Monk
Given the filling of them single prints was also the first proper test of the descending monthly TL on my daily chart selling pressure is expected around here. I have a potential daily flag formation forming on my charts and we are currently testing the bottom side of the triangle. A clear break through here to the downside could see us heading for single prints located at 5979 area from the 18th Feb profile. However Im more in favour of us doing a fake breakout lower of this price trap on the daily and heading higher...
Monthly close is uber important. If it closes between 1.60 and 1.6050, a monthly doji would signal, in my eyes, the all clear for a break of 1.5960 and below. On my charts I have 16160 as key resistance where the 4HR 200 ema @ 1.6020 as initial key support. I'm playing my short position strong and will continue to hold over the weekends, with an eventual target of 1.48.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #960
  • Feb 26, 2011 10:36am Feb 26, 2011 10:36am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
I've been watching for a monthly close around these exact levels too, though Friday's daily close suggests a close above 1.6050 on Monday, largely due to the continued weakness of the USD at the moment. I picked up a buy of the lows of the Swissie, and haven't made any progress with this trade yet though I'm watching for a monthly close around 0.94 or thereabouts on Monday night.

Monday's 'daily' close on cable will also be important, i.e. if we have a repeat of Friday's pinbar and close above 1.6100, then it might be prudent to assume a test of 1.63 before any big fall on cable to your long term target - 3 days leave next week will give the respite to actually watch things and trade accordingly.


Now all last week, we heard the MPC clearly say all they could, including 'jibberish', to keep cable propped up nicely (or that's what they appear to be trying to do anyway). The economy's about to see goodness knows how many public sector workers laid off, with the private sector not creating jobs fast enough (recently had over 200 applications for a junior engineer role, including the overqualified and the qualified, and that was a quick jolt of reality that outside there is really bad and raising interest rates will just bring about another round of repossessions and personal insolvencies), and maybe that's when we'll see a huge fall in cable, i.e once the rates increase starts to bite those out there with liabilities rather than assets, who won't benefit from interest rate hikes on their negligible or non-existent'savings'.

1.63 - 1.640 still achieveable in March imho, considering the concerted efforts of Bernanke et al. to weaken the USD, but if we do get there, the fall will be massive.

Off to mentally prepare for a potential 'trophy celebration' tomorrow - first in six years; hopefully the 'gunners' will prevail without Van Persie getting injured as well to ruin the rest of our season.

i







Quoting TexasforEX
Monthly close is uber important. If it closes between 1.60 and 1.6050, a monthly doji would signal, in my eyes, the all clear for a break of 1.5960 and below. On my charts I have 16160 as key resistance where the 4HR 200 ema @ 1.6020 as initial key support. I'm playing my short position strong and will continue to hold over the weekends, with an eventual target of 1.48.
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