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  • #581
  • Feb 24, 2006 3:30pm Feb 24, 2006 3:30pm
Quoting vegas
azmi,

For what it's worth, here are some thoughts.

14 out of the last 15 trading days has seen the gbp/usd daily close within 50-70 pips. This pretty much sums up the picture for the Euro/usd too. All week there were really no surprises in the news category [for gbp]. It's Friday, and I don't think many people choose to play today except nervous longs [who got long on yesterdays breakout] that decided to cut and run after a very lethargic European morning.

Ranges have started to contract in my 20-day moving median. This happens every now and then and usually only lasts a couple weeks and then follows an explosion in the ranges.

Other than that, the only other thing going on is the action in the crosses, specifically gbp/jpy. This could get interesting in the days and weeks ahead as Japan is starting to signal an end to its super-easy monetary policy. When the large hedge funds get caught in the carry trade the wrong way it usually results in the cross getting creamed. We will see.

Finally, I'm just sitting at my screen patiently waiting for a move to the outer fibs.
Love to here you talk shop Vegas!

I got a weekly range of 111 this week!

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #582
  • Feb 24, 2006 3:46pm Feb 24, 2006 3:46pm
Quoting accrete
Interesting info Vegas and thx for the reply...but i'm still stumped. I just uninstalled all versions of MT4 and went to s t r a t g y b u i l d e r f x mentioned in VWBII doc, downloaded/installed their version and got the standard demo but my candles are GMT time which would close the day at 19:00 ET or 18:00 CT(i know you mention the 5pm/6pm thingy in your doc, just want to try and be looking at the same charts)...

Is this what you are reading on your charts??

As a side thought, GMT time does not lign up with Market open in Tokyo as their time zone is GMT +9 (they do not observe DST as we do in the states) so the market would already be open for 61 minutes at a clock reading of GMT 00:01/18:01CT . . . ? ? ?

For those couple posts asking what feed shows the daily close at 5pm ET it should be any of the Russian feeds set to Moscow time from what i remember (such as Alpari)

Metatrader 4 demo from NEUIMEX uses 23:00 GMT for the close and open of daily candle.
  • #583
  • Feb 24, 2006 4:52pm Feb 24, 2006 4:52pm
Quoting vaidotasbackys
Metatrader 4 demo from NEUIMEX uses 23:00 GMT for the close and open of daily candle.
Thanks vaido, i downloaded their MT4 station and the charts appear to be 1 hour ahead of the SBFX feed so next monday i'll have a good look at the candles.
  • #584
  • Feb 25, 2006 3:32am Feb 25, 2006 3:32am
Vegas,

Thank you for clearing it up for everyone and for me. Eversince Monday Cable doesnt seems to react quickly after touching the third Fib line. Daily range also doesnt display the aggressive momentum.
  • #585
  • Edited 6:13am Feb 25, 2006 6:04am | Edited 6:13am
Having read through this thread as it progressed. There was a lot of questions about time, three o'clock Chicago time which time to study and so on. Since this time is based on future contracts. I was wondering if anybody ran tests for strictly Forex.

I ran a quick little test in TradeStations
example: if it is three o'clock consider this the opening and buy or sell in the direction of that candle. If the trade is older than one day exit and start over.
These times are based on Eastern standard New York Time

By running it on five years of data. There is a strange result, five o'clock in the morning, simply by going towards the direction of that candle. It produces $50,000 in profit using one LOT. No doubt this is a five year fluke. But what is interesting is that a variance by one-hour. Either way, produced -17,000 and variance of two hours produced $5,000. Strange.

Anyhow, I'm posting results. You can have a look. The columns that you will see are net profit , percent profitable. The number of winning trades.
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A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #586
  • Feb 25, 2006 11:07am Feb 25, 2006 11:07am
Quoting Claude
I ran a quick little test in TradeStations
example: if it is three o'clock consider this the opening and buy or sell in the direction of that candle. If the trade is older than one day exit and start over.
These times are based on Eastern standard New York Time...
Claude, I'm just trying to clarify in my mind what your "test" involved.

? Evaluate the forming daily candle at timeX into the trade day which began at 3pm Chicago time

? If forming daily candle is Bullish; BUY, if Bearish; SELL

? Close out any open trades at 3pm Chicago time.

? Begin evaluation process again on next day's forming candle at timeX

Am I following your test procedure correctly?

THX
  • #587
  • Feb 25, 2006 2:03pm Feb 25, 2006 2:03pm
It is the original question that I am interested in. There was a lot of questions about time, three o'clock Chicago time which time to study and so on. Since this time is based on future contracts. I was wondering if anybody ran tests for strictly Forex.


In Forex there is no start of the day or end of day. So I was only wondering if someone had tested.What if the start of the day was at one o'clock. What if the start of the day was at two o'clock. What if this started of the day was at three o'clock. And so on. Which one would be the best results.

Let me give another example and I will try to be more clear.

Vegas has looked at future contracts and if price gets 60 pips away from the open. The chances of it coming back are reduced. But in Forex. When is the open??

So here's another little test this program simply starts. The daily candle at different times of the day in one hour increments. And then, if price gets 60 pips away from that open. It buys our sells accordingly. And then closes the trade 24 hours later. And starts the new candle.

You'll notice that the results are all pretty close in percentage of winners. But for some reason, at 8 o'clock New York time the net profit is quite large. For some reason, if somebody had their opening candle set to open at 8 o'clock and Price got away by 60 pips. From that time and they executed the trade. The results would be much better.
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A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #588
  • Feb 25, 2006 8:31pm Feb 25, 2006 8:31pm
Hello Claude
Quoting Claude
Vegas has looked at future contracts and if price gets 60 pips away from the open. The chances of it coming back are reduced. But in Forex. When is the open??

So here's another little test this program simply starts. The daily candle at different times of the day in one hour increments. And then, if price gets 60 pips away from that open. It buys our sells accordingly. And then closes the trade 24 hours later. And starts the new candle.

You'll notice that the results are all pretty close in percentage of winners. But for some reason, at 8 o'clock New York time the net profit is quite large. For some reason, if somebody had their opening candle set to open at 8 o'clock and Price got away by 60 pips. From that time and they executed the trade. The results would be much better.
Thanks for publishing the results of your testing.

Could you run the tests again for 1yr, 2yr, 3yr etc.

If it is consistently more profitable around the 20:00 start then it would make the results meaningful.

Best regards
Alan
  • #589
  • Feb 25, 2006 8:33pm Feb 25, 2006 8:33pm
Quoting Claude
You'll notice that the results are all pretty close in percentage of winners. But for some reason, at 8 o'clock New York time the net profit is quite large. For some reason, if somebody had their opening candle set to open at 8 o'clock and Price got away by 60 pips. From that time and they executed the trade. The results would be much better.
So in this small backtest, one might assume that if the currency level at 8pm ET was noted, and both BUY and SELL entries were placed 60 pips away there could be some profitable trades (?). Now all that has to be done is find a feed that is set to GMT-3 ! grin.
  • #590
  • Feb 25, 2006 8:46pm Feb 25, 2006 8:46pm
This small test consists of five years of data. But my main question still remains there has been such an effort to have the data start at a specific time{to match Vegas} I was just wondering if anybody had bothered to test. If this was the best time for the Forex market.
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #591
  • Feb 25, 2006 8:56pm Feb 25, 2006 8:56pm
Hi Claude, i appreciate your time/energies on what you've shared, this is a valid question and the data you share is quite interesting! I'm not enough of a MetaTrader wizard to know if one can do a similar back test on what you've accomplished in TS.
  • #592
  • Feb 25, 2006 8:59pm Feb 25, 2006 8:59pm
Quoting accrete
Now all that has to be done is find a feed that is set to GMT-3 ! grin.
Uh... that would be VT, but I'm not sure why you would need it.
  • #593
  • Edited 10:09pm Feb 25, 2006 9:55pm | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting firehorse
Hello ClaudeThanks for publishing the results of your testing.

Could you run the tests again for 1yr, 2yr, 3yr etc.

If it is consistently more profitable around the 20:00 start then it would make the results meaningful.

Best regards
Alan
Here are the results for one two and three years. You'll notice that the time finishes with 59 minutes. I wanted to make sure I avoided a bouncing tick. Without going into TradeStations programming. This is the way I did it. It is still the same test.

Remember, this is not actually a big part of VWBII but since so much emphasis was being put on what time the candle should start at. I just wanted to know if someone actually took the time to test which time was best.
Attached Images
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #594
  • Feb 25, 2006 11:21pm Feb 25, 2006 11:21pm
Hi Claude
Quoting Claude
Here are the results for one two and three years. You'll notice that the time finishes with 59 minutes. I wanted to make sure I avoided a bouncing tick. Without going into TradeStations programming. This is the way I did it. It is still the same test.

Remember, this is not actually a big part of VWBII but since so much emphasis was being put on what time the candle should start at. I just wanted to know if someone actually took the time to test which time was best.
Thank you for taking the time to do the test.

After a quick glance I noticed an interesting point to me.
1. For 1 yr
20:00 -> 21760 - 101 trades
14:00 -> 23660 - 099 trades
For 2yr
20:00 -> 44780 - 205 trades
14:00 -> 31070 - 203 trades
For 3yr
20:00 -> 51510 - 306 trades
14:00 -> 20500 - 290 trades
For 5yr
20:00 -> 41120 - 430 trades
14:00 -> 6230 - 392 trades

For the last 3 yrs
20:00 has been a good time for the last 3 years, especially the last 2yr
14:00 has been a good time for the last year but not previous to that

So times are not necessarily consistent over time.

If one analysed year by year, how likely is the current year's best time, remain one of the better times for the next year or is there no correlation at all?

I want to say more but need to go out (the boss (wife) is waiting )

Best regards
Alan
  • #595
  • Feb 26, 2006 12:07am Feb 26, 2006 12:07am
Quoting Claude

In Forex there is no start of the day or end of day.
As a newbie, I'm a little confused by this statement. I was told that the Forex day starts and ends at 17:00 US EST. Is this correct? Also, when I'm looking at a daily chart from say StrategyBuilderFx, at what time of day are are the bars on the chart opened and closed?

I've even read that different brokers adopt different standards. See why I'm confused?
  • #596
  • Feb 26, 2006 12:36am Feb 26, 2006 12:36am
Quoting Bemac
Uh... that would be VT, but I'm not sure why you would need it.
that would be VT??

visual trader? ? Are you inferring that this software can change feed times? or it's feed is set to GMT-3
  • #597
  • Feb 26, 2006 1:28am Feb 26, 2006 1:28am
Quoting firehorse
Hi ClaudeThank you for taking the time to do the test.

So times are not necessarily consistent over time.

If one analysed year by year, how likely is the current year's best time, remain one of the better times for the next year or is there no correlation at all?

Best regards
Alan
These few little tests are hardly enough to come up with a specific time but I would most likely try to choose something in the bell curve. Not a specific best net profit time to trade. All you want is a robust Time.

Or I can run a whole lot of tests and come up with the conclusion that
times are not necessarily consistent over time as you put it. And then all this talk of when does the candle start can be put to rest. Because it just doesn't matter.

But if there is statistically a better time. Would you want to know.
If it can add one more marble of the correct color in that bag. It's definitely worth the effort.

I don't wanna go too far off topic here. And I know I can as the system designer.

So just a little bit of food for thought
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #598
  • Feb 26, 2006 1:36am Feb 26, 2006 1:36am
Quoting Claude
These few little tests are hardly enough to come up with a specific time but I would most likely try to choose something in the bell curve. Not a specific best net profit time to trade. All you want is a robust Time.

Or I can run a whole lot of tests and come up with the conclusion that
times are not necessarily consistent over time as you put it. And then all this talk of when does the candle start can be put to rest. Because it just doesn't matter.

But if there is statistically a better time. Would you want to know.
If it can add one more marble of the correct color in that bag. It's definitely worth the effort.

I don't wanna go too far off topic here. And I know I can as the system designer.

So just a little bit of food for thought
Actually, I'd like to be able to arrive at this:
"times are not necessarily consistent over time"

However, as you said, if the time can add another marble. Then why not.
If you're willing to do the tests, I think a lot would be thankful.
For now, I'm just beginning with the vegas models so I think I can't be of very much help but to say that "tests" are a requirement for any system.
  • #599
  • Feb 26, 2006 2:02am Feb 26, 2006 2:02am
Market Open Times ???
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  • #600
  • Feb 26, 2006 2:31am Feb 26, 2006 2:31am
Cool hadn't thought of looking at it that way. It looks like, if the 60 pip's happens within the first 2 hours of any of the opens. The odds of it coming back are higher.
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
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