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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,781
  • Feb 22, 2011 8:08pm Feb 22, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Scarecru
Just got on & sees you here.

Just gonna check some sheets & see what I can see.
Stick around for a bit if you can OK?

Yer pearls re: "oil patch"certainly require further analysis.
Just heard Saudis saying they will keep it flowing wrt Libyan events.

Hi Scarecru,

Thanks for all your great posts mate.

I was thinking maybe this bull day on usdcad was from the news with the Saudis mixed in with a bit of risk aversion. I would love to see this pair bounce to the top of the downtrend line so I can short the heck out of it.

What are your thoughts??
  • #3,782
  • Feb 22, 2011 8:29pm Feb 22, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting r2d2
A good day so far - got in twice from .9830 - .9850
One longer buy trade at .9860
Lets see what happens with Core Retail Sales ...
Good to see you getting some green pips.

Caveat Emptor ( buyer beware): NOTE VENGE's post "9890/9920 sell" area on his books.

I see a down TL (Feb 11-22) with 9915 Res.

9974 is prev supp (Nov 9-11).

Just some points to watch.

Just for the record; a cuppla posts ago, mentioned Moody's examining rating of OZ & KIWI re: trading. Tonight news said Moody's was leaving them as is. OZ & KIWI gaining.

Ya got your fundies in one hand & your TA in the other. (earthquake & Moody).
  • #3,783
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:32pm Feb 22, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting forexstrah
Hi Scarecru,

Thanks for all your great posts mate.

I was thinking maybe this bull day on usdcad was from the news with the Saudis mixed in with a bit of risk aversion. I would love to see this pair bounce to the top of the downtrend line so I can short the heck out of it.

What are your thoughts??
Love yer Avatar; you do not want to know my thoughts

Anyway on Dly I see a bastardized H&S ( Jan20/31/Feb10)
NL 9865.

There is a down TL ( Dec 29-Jan31) 9970 which is prev supp ( Nov 11).

MY TRADE: I shall sell stop @ 9970
  • #3,784
  • Edited 8:37pm Feb 23, 2011 1:29am | Edited 8:37pm
Hey Scare,

I was on for a moment and then my buddy rang me and had to pop out. I noticed that trend line, also and looks like a nice place to short.

Still have sell orders sitting around .9920 (although got a lot filled today ) with more to go .9940/50 and then a few around 0.9880 and lots more at 1.0000/10. My clients' buy orders still well intact at 0.9820 and under and FYI, an option at .9805 rolls off on Friday so likely that has been helping to stall price action down there too. Frickin' annoying!

Anyway, looks the like the CAD crosses are keeping USD/CAD anchored despite good USD selling in EUR and GBP. I have a feeling we'll see USD/CAD test the upside again, but at the moment risk aversion flows don't look overly concerning...for now...

That said, Middle-East has already eaten breakfast so we could see some more craziness from there soon, and any jump in oil is likely only to slow USD/CAD gains and not stop it completely. I'm short 0.9915 and SL at BE so not too concerned with what happens as I head off to bed. TP at .9941.

Can't wait to wake up and see my corp. sell orders hit as it would be a good $ day for me despite my own trade getting stopped out at BE.

Either way, I'm perfectly 'hedged'!

Nite!
  • #3,785
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:19am Feb 23, 2011 7:19am
Hi All,

Anyone else see this setup?

Wait for the 1 hr to close above tl, wait for a retracement back just above the tl and enter long. Stops @ 10-15 pips?

Nice Breakout! - any thoughts
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  • #3,786
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:05am Feb 23, 2011 8:05am
zzzzz... This pair is slooooooooow... I've been holding a long since last week and only these few days am i seeing profit
  • #3,787
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:14pm Feb 23, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting Scarecru
Anyway on Dly I see a bastardized H&S ( Jan20/31/Feb10)
NL 9865.

There is a down TL ( Dec 29-Jan31) 9970 which is prev supp ( Nov 11).

MY TRADE: I shall sell stop @ 9970
Didn't hit my sell stop; however, noticed -ve div on sto (Htf) so sell mkt order netted 80 pips.

Today's (23rd) D candle to me suggests no bull strength.
Shall await break of low 9856 for sell. 9866@ present.

Keep yer stick on the ice.
  • #3,788
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:31pm Feb 23, 2011 8:31pm
Hey Scare,

Nice short! I got stopped out overnight, for a small loss (commissions) but made up for it on the majority or my clients' orders being hit! Shorted it again at 0.9938 and still holding now...Put my stop at 0.9925 and we'll see if this puppy can mosey back to 0.9820 lows (hopefully so I can fill more orders)... Again, the 0.9820/30 area is chock full of bids, so likely slow again if it gets down there. Damn corporates in Canada have no imagination when it comes to placing bids...Oil over a hundred tonight/tomorrow?
  • #3,789
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:33pm Feb 23, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting kingdomk
Hi All,

Anyone else see this setup?

Wait for the 1 hr to close above tl, wait for a retracement back just above the tl and enter long. Stops @ 10-15 pips?

Nice Breakout! - any thoughts
KING: beauty call. Sound TA wrt TLs. If you were able to sit in front of your computer & reap the green pips I congratulate you.
Look what happened after.
Again, if you were able to sit in front of the screen & trade you would have made a whole bunch on sells.

Your post suggests that you know what you be doing.

Good luck.
  • #3,790
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:46pm Feb 23, 2011 8:46pm
Hey King,

I agree with Scare, nice call! Personally, I don't trade trendline BOs much (if at all), just a preference... But still was a pretty nice trade if you bought in on the break and closed out at resistance in the 0.9940/50 area and then went short.

I'm looking at, potentially, adding more shorts at 0.9880/90. If so, I'll adjust my stop a bit lower to make sure worse case that I BE. USD/CHF is another tempting short if it hits resistance around 0.9310/25 area...EUR/USD is another potential buy on either a retracement to 1.3730 or a BO and then retest of 1.3780/90...Although, I hate that pair...
  • #3,791
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:36pm Feb 23, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting Vengeance
Hey Scare,

Nice short! I got stopped out overnight, for a small loss (commissions) but made up for it on the majority or my clients' orders being hit! Shorted it again at 0.9938 and still holding now...Put my stop at 0.9925 and we'll see if this puppy can mosey back to 0.9820 lows (hopefully so I can fill more orders)... Again, the 0.9820/30 area is chock full of bids, so likely slow again if it gets down there. Damn corporates in Canada have no imagination when it comes to placing bids...Oil over a hundred tonight/tomorrow?
Yo VENGE: Owe the short to yer post

I'm watching for 9820 south break ( RSI is <50) Dly.

Interesting article on www.gm.bankofny.com re:USD & IRAN today.

Re: oil triple top. Watch for crash through or bounce back.

I am watching E/Cad- it be at top of down channel & STO is o/b. I am looking @ sell.
  • #3,792
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:34pm Feb 23, 2011 10:34pm
Hey Scare,

Then you owe me a poutine of my choice (gotta have mntrl smoked meat on it)!!!

I see what you mean on the EUR/CAD, but that pair has been stubbornly resilient of late. Being a contrarian myself, I like the idea of shorting the crap out of it, but it still looks like a buy on dips to 1.3430 area...Maybe...

Either way, I'm staying away from EUR pairs for a little while as EUR strength just offends my sensibilities, but has been the theme.
  • #3,793
  • Feb 24, 2011 6:10pm Feb 24, 2011 6:10pm
Yo VENGE: shall import smoked meat from Ben's Deli in Montreal (if the BLOQHEADS haven't managed to destroy another successful establishment as per their track record.

Site I mentioned yesterday has an interesting piece re: oil price & US$
relation.

Yer spot on re: Euro. The E/CAD setup is somewhat askew & I shall patiently await more concrete techs.

Haven't done anything wrt E pairs this year.

Prefer to focus on loonie & short it. (scalp some buys).

Gonna see the chart now - give you some poutine for thought later.
  • #3,794
  • Feb 24, 2011 6:33pm Feb 24, 2011 6:33pm
$ @ May 25/08 support. 9814 is Feb 17 low. Dtf.

Longer term trade

Sell stop 9801.

200 pip stop (ain't gonna happen) Target 9700.
  • #3,795
  • Edited 7:09pm Feb 24, 2011 7:07pm | Edited 7:09pm
Mmm...poutine for thought...sounds delicious! So I stayed away from the euro pairs, but got short at .9310 (most surgical trade thus far in 2011!) and am still holding it. No stop on it yet but will likely set it to BE when I go to bed. My other sells on this pair never got hit so just a tiny position on now.

USD/CAD was kind enough to oblige me while I slept and got more shorts on at 0.9880. Still holding them, too, and think I'll put a TP on around 0.9780 later...Might close out my shorts from last night around current rates, but still debating that one. SL moved down to 0.9880.

Not sure if I would want to be setting a sell stop at 0.9801 just ahead of psychological .9800 and with channel support so nearby at .9780...I think shorting a rally is the better play and with tmrw. being Friday, could see better prices for a short (which is why I'm thinking of closing out some of my shorts and resetting later)...
  • #3,796
  • Feb 24, 2011 7:13pm Feb 24, 2011 7:13pm
VENGE: Teacher asks class to give an example of an oxymoron.

Kid shouts out "Montreal Canadiens".
  • #3,797
  • Feb 25, 2011 4:12pm Feb 25, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting Scarecru
VENGE: Teacher asks class to give an example of an oxymoron.

Kid shouts out "Montreal Canadiens".

hahaha nice one!!! Well, today was interesting...Still holding my USD/CHF (took off stop earlier this a.m.) and USD/CAD.Now targeting .9710 and not sure where in the swissy...Got long in EUR/USD at 1.3730 although I'm a bit leery on that one. No stops in play except for USD/CAD which i moved to .9835...

Can't wait until Sunday to see what happens...

Anyway, hope everyone else had a great week, and Happy Friday!
  • #3,798
  • Feb 26, 2011 7:40pm Feb 26, 2011 7:40pm
Yo VENGE: watch your stop on U/CAD. 4H has STO o/s & I'm thinking to place a sell stop @ 9815 or 9840 as a possible retrace.
OR Dtf: STO down, MacD down RSI < 50 so sell stop @ 9875 if no retrace on 4H.
  • #3,799
  • Feb 27, 2011 3:44pm Feb 27, 2011 3:44pm
This pair is giving me trouble now.

It's also going south, constantly. Now I've been a prophet searching for reversals.

On the daily, and weekly (longer period MACD histogram), it's been showing signs of bullish divergence.

From the pivot point of view, you can see that he totally missed last two pivot points. I mean, it's not something usual, as every pair almost all the time at least touches it's daily pivot, not to mention spend some time around it.

I would like to see him going north, so I can say I told you so :-)

No exact entry point also, just an observation.
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  • #3,800
  • Feb 27, 2011 5:11pm Feb 27, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting Scarecru
Yo VENGE: watch your stop on U/CAD. 4H has STO o/s & I'm thinking to place a sell stop @ 9815 or 9840 as a possible retrace.
OR Dtf: STO down, MacD down RSI < 50 so sell stop @ 9875 if no retrace on 4H.

Good advice! Thanks! However, I was putting the stop just above Friday's high since lots of CAD data tmrw. so figured if it breaches that area, likely heading a bit higher.

Got out of EUR/USD long at 1.3751 a little bit ago... Looking like a good decision now. Might exit USD/CHF soon too... Decided to look at closing USD/CAD shorts around 1.3750 or a least some of them...We'll see what happens in the next little bit.
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