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vsa with Malcolm

  • #13,781
  • Feb 22, 2011 3:11pm Feb 22, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting frankkn
a) Stopping volume
b) Shake out
c) NS- confirms shakeout
d) Confirms shakeout
e) Up bar on increasing volume is bullish
f) ND entry bar

As I'm posting this I got filled so let's see, how it goes, my stop is below the low.
A couple of important things to note. Your SO closes too near the middle, it is a poor example. The main thing to concern you is the volume on that SO. It is less than the previous 2 bars. This is a pseudo SO and is VERY unreliable, sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. When we see a pseudo SO in a down trend, a reasonable entry might be short a couple of pips below the SO low.


Also, a bit more concerning is your chart in general. I have 2 chart feeds and they are both the same. However, they are different from yours. Checkout the price bars in the shaded area of my chart and compare them with yours.

What do you think?
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  • #13,782
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:41pm Feb 22, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Well what a rocky day and its early. I got suckered into a long on the GU only to suffer a nice loss. Than caught a short on the Eur to make back the profit only to have that wiped out on the spike back up to 3680. lol. Since the dust has settled and things are more clear, my opinion is that we have just seen a shakeout under 3640. I will post a chart in a bit.
Sorry for the late chart but now the evidence is more clear. Eur is setting up for a big climb, watch your shorts. If you have any.
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  • #13,783
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:46pm Feb 22, 2011 6:46pm
I agree SonofSin. What a nice start right at the 5pm NY close. Gorgeous channel play and easy entries available, confirmed by buyers, or, a bounce off the DPP (GU). Moved 50 pips already since then, although my entries are half of that which is oh so good for Asia. Expecting a 1.37 pause or double top as Asian markets open. Love this type of gravy action - risk a little, gain a lot.
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  • #13,784
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:54pm Feb 22, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Sorry for the late chart but now the evidence is more clear. Eur is setting up for a big climb, watch your shorts. If you have any.
What I love the most is that that bar you marked which hit supposed supply level on lowering volume also hit the 38.2 retrace of the move up and that ever special 3640 level all at once... gotta love it when all the signs come together. Is it coincedence that the retrace from the move up today just happen to hit the ever special 38.2 fib at 3640????
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #13,785
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:59pm Feb 22, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting pres78
What I love the most is that that bar you marked which hit supposed supply level on lowering volume also hit the 38.2 retrace of the move up and that ever special 3640 level all at once... gotta love it when all the signs come together. Is it coincedence that the retrace from the move up today just happen to hit the ever special 38.2 fib at 3640????
I don't trade fibs but know many that do including some ex bank traders who all do very well by them. I did not know that was the 38.2 but thats very coincidental isn't it?

The pound isn't as clear to me yet and I may wait until/if .6200 is taken out to take an entry.

Trichet speaks tomorrow and as of late he is been a great help to euro longs. I hope that continues.
  • #13,786
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:07pm Feb 22, 2011 7:07pm
I have always been a fib user as it keeps me in line with where we stand within a bigger picture move... also I have learned to love and respect those 38.2 and even the 50 fib retraces to reload / gather steam. It also allows me to determine if I am looking at a retrace or trend change in the grand scheme of things.

That's just like looking at the last month on EU... yes we have moved down from that high we made early Feb but we have never, not once closed under the 38.2 retrace level and we had 3 daily bars all that tested below that level. It is quite amazing to watch how well these levels are respeced many times again and again.

Now me personally I have no open trades on EU ATM so I would like to see this brought back down pre LO and another low volume test or shake out at that same 3640ish level...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #13,787
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:19pm Feb 22, 2011 7:19pm
anyone fancy a short soon?
  • #13,788
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:25pm Feb 22, 2011 7:25pm
I did get into this trade ealier today after I noted in this thread the nice 2 bar reversal I saw that had a downbar stopping right on 6100 with the next bar up on the 5 and 15 min charts...

1. buyers
2. stopping vol
3. low vol test of trigger (green line) and confirmation of stopping vol
4. NS with entry next bar

Entry - 6135, SL - 6100, TP1 at 6170 (hit)

SL now at BE for trade 2 with a target at 6195 (just shy of that 6200 level)...

Entry was a little risky as we were close to end of day, hull was red and price was under both hull and PAL. For 35 pips risked I figured I could at least get out for 1:1 since this would keep me under 50 % retrace (6181) of the downmove that started Friday at 6261 high to Tuesday's low.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #13,789
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:29pm Feb 22, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting duyk20
anyone fancy a short soon?
Possible UT forming on 30 min EU... 2 mins to close.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #13,790
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:33pm Feb 22, 2011 7:33pm
Quoting pres78
I did get into this trade ealier today after I noted in this thread the nice 2 bar reversal I saw that had a downbar stopping right on 6100 with the next bar up on the 5 and 15 min charts...

1. buyers
2. stopping vol
3. low vol test of trigger (green line) and confirmation of stopping vol
4. NS with entry next bar

Entry - 6135, SL - 6100, TP1 at 6170 (hit)

SL now at BE for trade 2 with a target at 6195 (just shy of that 6200 level)...

Entry was a little risky as we were close to end of day, hull was red and price was under both hull and...
Closed lot 2 at 6170 also... too close to bed. Will get up 1hr before LO to inspect the situation.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #13,791
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:50pm Feb 22, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
I don't trade fibs but know many that do including some ex bank traders who all do very well by them. I did not know that was the 38.2 but thats very coincidental isn't it?

The pound isn't as clear to me yet and I may wait until/if .6200 is taken out to take an entry.

Trichet speaks tomorrow and as of late he is been a great help to euro longs. I hope that continues.
Oh and there is a WRB 1hr trigger level from Tuesday charts sitting right around that 3640 level also... Lots of interest at this point.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #13,792
  • Feb 22, 2011 8:02pm Feb 22, 2011 8:02pm
H4 : Supportline
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  • #13,793
  • Feb 22, 2011 8:38pm Feb 22, 2011 8:38pm
EUR/USD continue from last post.

Action for Tue 22-Feb.
Action in 2nd Box to 3rd Box.

D1:
- Mon 21-Feb USA Presiden Day, Public Holiday end up in Range day.
- Tue 22-Feb early Christchurch NZ Earthquarke, Libya unrest, Higher Oil prices, EUR/USD temporary down in Asian session.
- Price end up 22-Feb as a Test, Long Tail Doji, Extreme High Vol.
- See potential Long target at a longer timeframe at "SR Daily Zone" around 1.4210.
- See Daily Upcoming Resistance around 1.3800 to 1.3860.


H1:
- The Black Lines for Boxes were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 2nd Box was in fact around 80pips.
- Price went from the High 3rd Box to Low of 2nd Box. It did not bounce at 3rd Box Low.
- There was a ShakeOut/StopVol at Low of 2nd Box around 1.3525.
- Then a quick Test of 2nd Box Low for an ideal Long entry around 1.3562.
- Once it went back up into 3rd Box, there was a Test Low around 1.3635.
- Then a NS for ideal Long entry around 1.3660.


M15:
- All the long horizontal lines were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 3rd Box was around 90pips.
- Price went from High 3rd Box to Low 2nd Box.
- At Low 2nd Box, there was Stop Vol.
- Followed by Buyers coming in with the Reversal.
- Then a NS Doji for ideal Long entry around 1.3576
- Fast "Pushing Through Supply" back up into 3rd Box.
- In 3rd Box, NS is ideal Long entry around 1.3640.
- Now wait for future price to retrace back to test the low 1.3635 for Long.
- Or wait for bounce off the 3rd Box Low 1.3610 for Long.
- Or wait for go up 4th Box and test 4th Box Low for Long.


Price is progressing nicely up through the Box Stages for now.

Finally caught at least 1 Long entry at 1.3589 during 22-Feb Asian session.


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  • #13,794
  • Feb 22, 2011 8:50pm Feb 22, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting foxybunny
EUR/USD continue from last post.

Action for Tue 22-Feb.
Action in 2nd Box to 3rd Box.

D1:
- Mon 21-Feb USA Presiden Day, Public Holiday end up in Range day.
- Tue 22-Feb early Christchurch NZ Earthquarke, Libya unrest, Higher Oil prices, EUR/USD temporary down in Asian session.
- Price end up 22-Feb as a Test, Long Tail Doji, Extreme High Vol.
- See potential Long target at a longer timeframe at "SR Daily Zone" around 1.4210.
- See Daily Upcoming Resistance around 1.3800 to 1.3860.


H1:
- The Black Lines for Boxes were previously drawn,...
Thank you for these charts. I always learn something new from your postings. Always thorough and easy to follow. Much appreciated! Please keep these coming!
  • #13,795
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:42pm Feb 22, 2011 9:42pm
I'm using the tick based bars to keep it simple and take time out of consideration.
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  • #13,796
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:00pm Feb 22, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting rbumbalough
I'm using the tick based bars to keep it simple and take time out of consideration.
hi, can i know how the green and red horizontal bars on the left side of your chart work?, is it for mt4?
  • #13,797
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:12pm Feb 22, 2011 10:12pm
why short scalp something that is a run away train... ?

just voice of experience .. trend is your friends. Wait for the sign of strength and take the longs ... then you are skipping hand in hand with the pros not boxing against them

Quoting rbumbalough
I'm using the tick based bars to keep it simple and take time out of consideration.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,798
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:16pm Feb 22, 2011 10:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
why short scalp something that is a run away train... ?

just voice of experience .. trend is your friends. Wait for the sign of strength and take the longs ... then you are skipping hand in hand with the pros not boxing against them
thanks for ur advice malcolmb.. i took some longs at 1.3530 ytd and close most of them once we hit the 1.3680ish levels ..

may i ask what are the levels we should look out for today if we were to reload longs?
i am looking and try to be alert for any potential shakeouts that will come our way at frankfurt open or london open to be signs for reloading longs..
and of course with any VSA setups for strength in the background we can see at that time of shakeout..
  • #13,799
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:25pm Feb 22, 2011 10:25pm
Quoting Mtm
hi, can i know how the green and red horizontal bars on the left side of your chart work?, is it for mt4?
Hello Friend Mtm: It is nice to meet you on FF. Thanks for your question. The chart I posted is from Infinity Futures AT trade platform with Sierra Charts. The indi on the side is volume by price and is built into Sierra. I like the Infinity Futures AT platform better than MT4 because AT has the level 2 depth of market quotes. In MT4, I use Market Statistics 4.1 that does almost the same thing and provides point of control, primary value price, and volume weighted MA as well as standard deviations from PVP. In the EU, price action often respects the SD's from PVP almost to the pip. I have attached the copy of Market Statistics on my pc to this message. You may find it helpful. I'm quite certain there is a newer version of this indi on FF somewhere.

However, no indicator can ever replace or substitute for learning to trade by the proper VSA way.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Market_Statistics_v4_1.mq4   10 KB | 296 downloads
  • #13,800
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:34pm Feb 22, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14
why short scalp something that is a run away train... ?

just voice of experience .. trend is your friends. Wait for the sign of strength and take the longs ... then you are skipping hand in hand with the pros not boxing against them
Hello Malcolmb. Thanks. You always have the best advice. INdeed. VSA stipulates only to operate with the trend.

I did a counter trend scalp in the CL with the new platform just to test my reading of the depth of market level two style quotes. I have much to learn. In real money trading I would only do long trades in bullish run away freight trains. Its the VSA way.

Thanks for posting your stuff too btw. You should write a how to trade book. It would sell.

Best Wishes and Warm Regards
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