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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,081
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:35am Feb 21, 2011 1:35am
Quoting auxesis
Somewhere, mixed into the thread FTI talking about rescues and attacks and how attacking can feel abnormal, as it's easier emotionally to add as price goes against you instead of the opposite....... mentions that there will be times when those retraces will actually end up netting good returns as on a shallow retrace you would probably not have attacked with similar strength.

Find a happy median somewhere in the middle.
I remember that post also, from memory fti said the human mind is more alert in adversity, ...., and we often find trades that gives the better ROI are those that start badly, ... something like that.

Although the rescue mindset (when things get bad) is resolve, BE and out, there are in between scenarios where rescues morph into attacks ........., better stop before I get into trouble

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #23,082
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:49am Feb 21, 2011 1:49am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Mark,
It is of the same importance as the "perfect timing" required for successful rescueing.
CU,
Niels
You need real good luck to catch the "perfect timing".
if no luck, skews and arts of war come into play.
  • #23,083
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:57am Feb 21, 2011 1:57am
Quoting imjscn
You need real good luck to catch the "perfect timing".
if no luck, skews and arts of war come into play.
Good morning imjscn!

Yeah - that's right.

BTW: Anything new from fti?

Niels
  • #23,084
  • Feb 21, 2011 3:34am Feb 21, 2011 3:34am
Quote
]According to reports, Libyan central government building is on fire
@Niels, no update from fti recently. Hope he is doing well.
  • #23,085
  • Feb 21, 2011 4:12am Feb 21, 2011 4:12am
@ fullperson - Regarding the purposes of a scout, I believe that fti said they were a big help in accurately gauging market form, especially in congestions.
  • #23,086
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:47am Feb 21, 2011 7:47am
Thanks, could you be a bit more specific? I think fti uses the scout's psychological factor to help us gauge market form. It make us pay attention more to its movements as it is happening. Is there a purpose for teh socut that I am missing?

Will

Quoting ukmanthailan
@ fullperson - Regarding the purposes of a scout, I believe that fti said they were a big help in accurately gauging market form, especially in congestions.
  • #23,087
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:06am Feb 21, 2011 8:06am
I don't think you are really missing anything, no. It does make you pay more attention. I guess the reason fti said it was useful in congestions is because you probably wouldn't actually need to have a scout in the market to tell you what is going on when there are clearly defined primary moves and retraces (although you would still deploy one) but congestions can be a lot more confusing.

The other advantage of deploying a scout (if the market moves your way) is that you already have a base to build on when attacking. That's how I see it anyway; those with much larger accounts may see the contribution of their scout to the bottom line as largely irrelevant.
  • #23,088
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:13am Feb 21, 2011 8:13am
The scout is like your "feeler". It takes you from being a spectator to a player so physiologically it is different. The idea is to have a better feel for the market once a player and it is the base of your spiral. What happens from there depends on the dance/action. Attack, rescue, flip, etc...
  • #23,089
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:20am Feb 21, 2011 8:20am
....Or simply die of boredom, in today's markets. Over 3 hours and the price is just 20 pips away from my scout entry (and not in the right direction either!).
  • #23,090
  • Feb 21, 2011 10:18am Feb 21, 2011 10:18am
Quoting Baifu
Also,
Art Of War Chapter 13 is about spies (scouts), the chapter starts with describing the enormity and hardships of war, and the sovereign who wages war (causing enormous suffering to his people) without adequate knowledge shows inhumanity. Foreknowledge of the enemy can only be obtained from other men, therefore the use of spies. I will paste the relevant paragraphs from the Giles interpretation ( AOW text is in red to distinguish it from the interpretation).
Rgs,
Baifu...
Great Post!!!!
  • #23,091
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:25pm Feb 21, 2011 6:25pm
this is a great thread, and thanks long... (naked lady) lol, i cant write out your username sorry i forgot longhsww?

and FTI thank you, your methods make a lot of sense to me, i have a question.
i usually like to use Pivot points and whole numbers to get the feel of where the price is heading as well as previous highs and lows, to guide myself of where we are.

do you discurage this as it can cause rigidity?

and longhsww do you use 48 sma on a 15 min to average out the price of 12hrs half a day? 48 sma= 48 periods of 15 min=12hrs

i read the art of war, and the concept of attack and rescue facinate me
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #23,092
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:21am Feb 22, 2011 4:21am
Quoting the redlion
this is a great thread, and thanks long... (naked lady) lol, i cant write out your username sorry i forgot longhsww?

and FTI thank you, your methods make a lot of sense to me, i have a question.
i usually like to use Pivot points and whole numbers to get the feel of where the price is heading as well as previous highs and lows, to guide myself of where we are.

do you discurage this as it can cause rigidity?

and longhsww do you use 48 sma on a 15 min to average out the price of 12hrs half a day? 48 sma= 48 periods of 15 min=12hrs

i read...
Hi Redlion,

Welcome to the thread, if you find value in what you have read so far please keep going, there are lots more to follow, ………………. FTI is reconstituting from some very tough health issues and is unlikely to answer your question, Leighsww has long left the thread.

Fti said it took him 2 years to train a trader, and may be 4 years before the trader is really proficient. Other senior students here have said it has taken them 2-4 years, some said 3, to be profitable (not sure if they mean in general or fti method in particular). Either way this is the long haul.

Regarding pivots, hourly benchmarks and the like, it is part of the methodology to be aware where price has been and how it behaves when the levels are re-visited. The basics:

· market structure (we are trading localized market makers market)
· capitalization (leverage and MM - what level exposure for which market condition and what strategic response - position size – in reaction to PA)
· YOU (mindset, AOW is about mindset training and MM)

There is no rule, except not to overleverage and overtrade.

FWIW, I am just a junior student (about one year of study of this thread).
Rgs,
Baifu
  • #23,093
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:59am Feb 22, 2011 4:59am
good point about the boredom. It's a huge help to stop that scorpion. I don't think I've felt bored at all.

Quoting ukmanthailan
....Or simply die of boredom, in today's markets. Over 3 hours and the price is just 20 pips away from my scout entry (and not in the right direction either!).
  • #23,094
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:10am Feb 22, 2011 5:10am
I don't mind being bored as long as I'm not stupid enough to open another position because of it (something I was definitely guilty of in the past).
  • #23,095
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:34am Feb 22, 2011 5:34am
Hello friends!
As i was observing on myself, SCOUT position is important, but tunning part of the whole campaign(snowball). Where i made a mistake was, that i was waiting for the best opportunity to get into the market. With the scout! But what to say, that when i chose the best, great opportunity with the scout, isnt continuation only "not as great inputs"??? Scout is good, another levels are fading back to flat and finally dropped into the loss. I think, that scout is about the market temper. Mind concentration must be tuned by the scout, not liberated by it(as i observed on myself). So another bigger inputs must be more accurate and valuable than the original scout-because of the scout. Regards
  • #23,096
  • Feb 22, 2011 11:47am Feb 22, 2011 11:47am
I think (but I'm not sure) that I made a post about the 4-hour pivot points mentioned in the Beat the Forex Dealer book that Niels posted a link to the other day, saying that I thought they were useful.

If I did, I take it back, as I can't believe that I said something quite so stupid after reading this thread for so long.
  • #23,097
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:22pm Feb 22, 2011 1:22pm
Do U like trading in the RANGE?:-)))
Inserted Video
  • #23,098
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:58pm Feb 22, 2011 1:58pm
Happy trading day everyone. World events are playing out in the currency markets today, so let's hope this continues for the rest of the week! The problems in the Middle East are creating all sorts of problems for oil and equities. Having short-term impact on currencies, and maybe long-term implecations as well.

Less discussed is news of a dramatic increase in oil reserves in the US, with two locations (one in Texas and one in North Dakota) adding reserves equal to the amount of oil in Saudia Arabia today. Other oil drilling sites in the US will be added to the new estimates over the next few years. Long-term, this could lead to about $500 billion dollars not being shipped overseas to OPEC, which would have a dramatic effect on the dollar. However, nothing to trade today or tomorrow -- LOL.

Good trading everyone!
  • #23,099
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:17pm Feb 22, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day everyone. World events are playing out in the currency markets today, so let's hope this continues for the rest of the week! The problems in the Middle East are creating all sorts of problems for oil and equities. Having short-term impact on currencies, and maybe long-term implecations as well.

Less discussed is news of a dramatic increase in oil reserves in the US, with two locations (one in Texas and one in North Dakota) adding reserves equal to the amount of oil in Saudia Arabia today. Other oil drilling sites in the US will...
I didn't heard a thing about this new oil resources, but even with this new resources we are running out of time, but till they can drill out any amount of oil, price is due to rise.

And even so those reserves aren't enough to meet demand. The world is using 86 million barrels of oil everyday so they are not going to solve the world's problems.

The real question that we should ask is how high it can go, I know it may sound like armageddon but is just my view, the world as we know it is changing fast.

all the best!
  • #23,100
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:30pm Feb 22, 2011 9:30pm
some serious moves made on crudes. markets scurry.

sgd trading at 3 year highs how much lower mr greenback?
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