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vsa with Malcolm

  • #13,681
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:42am Feb 22, 2011 4:42am
What is going on? I think we should ignore yesterday and call today a down Monday, followed by you know who...
  • #13,682
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:44am Feb 22, 2011 4:44am
chart;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,683
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:45am Feb 22, 2011 4:45am
Bloomberg is carrying hawkish comments from ECB’s Mersch:
Excessively low interest rates can distort economy
ECB may reassess view on risks to economic outlook
ECB will probably make exit statement at next meeting

Quoting Fusion
What is going on? I think we should ignore yesterday and call today a down Monday, followed by you know who...
  • #13,684
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:46am Feb 22, 2011 4:46am
eu short scalp forming.
  • #13,685
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:47am Feb 22, 2011 4:47am
3615/10 spot again to watch for entries if we retrace there.

powerful confluence zone as i noted on the daily.

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/9...0222114549.png
  • #13,686
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:49am Feb 22, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
3615/10 spot again to watch for entries if we retrace there.

powerful confluence zone as i noted on the daily.

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/9...0222114549.png
Do you not use POC? Friday's is 13629
  • #13,687
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:49am Feb 22, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
another proof that vsa is rubbish

i bought, made the screenshot and here we are.

eur remains bullish no matter what. asia dumps usd and buys eur like mad, drop it during asian session with their yennies, buy it like mad in eur + us

as i said, all that happened was a big flushout of longs. to make it more powerful, we should rapidly clear this price range so nobody attempts to step in.

Dear Doc -

When you say big flushot of longs, I gather you are looking for a break (or a retest?) of the recent highs near 1.3714? Is that right?

Sorry about the noob questions...

Moe.
  • #13,688
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:51am Feb 22, 2011 4:51am
i am using profile chart on ninjatrader for entry timing and intraday trading

prorealtime for general picture.

Quoting ozzieb88
Do you not use POC? Friday's is 13629
  • #13,689
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:52am Feb 22, 2011 4:52am
I think we might have seen an insane shakeout ...


Quoting Dr.Geppynius
3615/10 spot again to watch for entries if we retrace there.

powerful confluence zone as i noted on the daily.

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/9...0222114549.png
  • #13,690
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:53am Feb 22, 2011 4:53am
Quoting Fusion
I think we might have seen an insane shakeout ...
If you look at my screen shot above, TG tagged the wide spread bar as a shakeout with the green indicator below it.
  • #13,691
  • Edited 5:39am Feb 22, 2011 4:54am | Edited 5:39am
Just got home
Anyone catch the move? ^_^
Any chance to JUMP THE GUN ^_^
  • #13,692
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:55am Feb 22, 2011 4:55am
yes, exactly. i even see higher prices soon.

as nicely mentioned by sean from fxlive, market was heavily net short usd, so to grab soem stops and flushout weak holders, which might sell into a rally later (by profittaking) they trigger those stops now which also offers the opportunity to buy some more.

asian central banks alos buy like mad.
i remain bullish but the point is, we cannot know how long this game will go on and they have enough, so eur is hard to trade longerterm without big stops, even if you are right with being on the long side.

Quoting Momomoney
Dear Doc -

When you say big flushot of longs, I gather you are looking for a break (or a retest?) of the recent highs near 1.3714? Is that right?

Sorry about the noob questions...

Moe.
  • #13,693
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:57am Feb 22, 2011 4:57am
Quoting Fusion
I think we might have seen an insane shakeout ...
Hmmmm, I agree tbh. This is Euro strength alone and typically Sterling needs to jump on board too. Let's see if we get any hawkish comments from Merv the Swerve or his cohorts in the coming hours.....

I think we'll retrace back below 1.36, unless Sterling plays catch up.

I am looking for a Euro test above 1.37, but not quite yet.


Let's see......
  • #13,694
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:58am Feb 22, 2011 4:58am
Damn this VSA don't workie - I'll be taking my TP1 @ around here for a 100 pipper; 1.364ish is resistance, 76.4% workback of the Asia fall, and 38.2% below Friday's high. (I know, I know ... too many lines on the chart! )

TBH, I didn't think we'd work our way back this fast ... now, how's that H4 lookin' ...
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  • #13,695
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:01am Feb 22, 2011 5:01am
Quoting foxybunny
VSA is just one type of analysis tool, so may not be enough as you mentioned.
I also would not know "exactly" how much strength/weakness to make a price turn, or whether anyone knows "exactly".
Perhaps the other VSAers here can respond to your "exactly" issue.

Be good for us to know where is "Real Support and Real Demand".
Mostly do this on the longer time frame.
Here simple Support/Resistance lines would be the easiest guide, and Market Profile / Auction Market Theory would add more value.
We really need to have a guide on where...
thanks for the reply.
(side track a bit)

I had tried to look into pnf to 'calculate' the accumulation/distribution area to see how far it will move the price.. also to see if it can work with vsa.. but im still not quite understanding how to come up with the pnf chart :S

btw, i also just noticed that price went up to the same area as on Feb 9th, before it fell to the same area as Feb 7, before it bounced off that level... almost like a mirror image.. maybe this like what they described as a "inverted head and shoulder" formation.
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  • #13,696
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:20am Feb 22, 2011 5:20am
Quoting KinsaleForex
If you look at my screen shot above, TG tagged the wide spread bar as a shakeout with the green indicator below it.
Nice. I use the Better Pro Am indi's and find they are excellent, although they don't pick up everything, (BTW, ND on euro 10M) so I usually monitor multiple timeframes.

TG is coming out with their VSA plug-in on TradeStation, Sierra Charting, MetaStock & MT4 this quarter; think it'll be $1500/year. MT4 should be pretty S.M.A.R.T ...
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  • #13,697
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:45am Feb 22, 2011 5:45am
back to 3640 where the short entry this morning was.

looks pretty much like friday...same path or failure?

price is now back between 3650 and above the tl whose first low formed last wednesday. dangerous zone.

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/1...0222123613.png
  • #13,698
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:46am Feb 22, 2011 5:46am
Well done - with your posts i have started to look more at the 20min time frame for signals/tests etc and in quite a few instances it is clearer than the 15M and 30M - so thank you for sharing your context and analysis structure - interesting at times how often when the test or vsa principle is not clear on one time frame it truly pays to zoom up or down a time frame and often one gains more clarity - of course the background must always be borne in mind and not lead to habit of saying that looks like a test etc when in reality the market is in pause mode and not ready to move up or down. again thanks kinsale!

A london


Quoting KinsaleForex
Went long off the 20min chart at 1.3577, just closed @ 1.3632. Thank you very much!
  • #13,699
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:02am Feb 22, 2011 6:02am
Catch the falling knife and it pays off. Happy
  • #13,700
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:07am Feb 22, 2011 6:07am
Quoting KinsaleForex
If you look at my screen shot above, TG tagged the wide spread bar as a shakeout with the green indicator below it.
Fusion was hopefully referring to today's action as a whole, rather than the strong up bar.

The shakeout was on the cards a dozen hours ago, and it was alluded to in this thread (not specifically, but bullish posters talking of significant and sharp retracement). We see a strong background littered with shakeouts, so we should expect them. Today we see a dip below yesterday's lows - we should start thinking shakeout at this point. We still wait, of course. We see it pierce the lows of previous days and hit a period of high activity. At this point, a shakeout is a high probability, and one we should be looking to bet on.

Quote
interesting at times how often when the test or vsa principle is not clear on one time frame it truly pays to zoom up or down a time frame
This is the problem with focusing on bars/candles. It does make for easier recognition, but it also means relying on that specific bar forming. It might be a good idea to watch faster timeframes and learn to visualise that action as whatever patterns you use (e.g. add three faster bars to form a test on a slower timeframe).

Quoting duyk20
Catch the falling knife and it pays off. Happy
It's not catching if it is picked up off the ground!
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