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vsa with Malcolm

  • #13,661
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:42pm Feb 21, 2011 8:42pm
yep , tx frank for the explanation, very clear!

e) is a squat right?
  • #13,662
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:52pm Feb 21, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
as mentioned it was very subtle , and to be honest I could not understand why oil dropped 92 to 85 in such a hurry .... then when i saw the test on daily made sense ... a shake out

commodities will often do a super spike before they crash and burn .... oil has not done this yet
from my point of view the best time to trade commodities is on natural disasters
like when cyclone yasi hit qeensland,the price of sugar went from 30 a day before cyclone,to 32 on the day of the cyclone

as i saw on wall street warriors 2 ,the guys at the cme pits of orangejuice futures were looking at the florida cyclone,which was to hit the orange fields
the cyclones /tornado whateva it was came close to the crops but didnt hit it,but they were prepared to sell if it did hit it

but eurusd 1m,is surely the best for vsa analysis
esp in illiqiud times,when absorption is evident(just talking from a trade i did last week on tokyo lunch break)
  • #13,663
  • Feb 21, 2011 9:01pm Feb 21, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting B4iFUrU18
e) is a squat right?
Yes. Small spread up bar on high volume, close off its high in the mist of high present supply
  • #13,664
  • Feb 21, 2011 9:32pm Feb 21, 2011 9:32pm
Decent stopping volume @ 1.356 along with reports of buyers, which presumably held on. Quite the range for Asia - over 110 pips. And to think I let my NY short go for a crappy 20 pip profit.

Asia's all giddy with risk-off, Libya, oil, etc., and the USD is makin' biggish moves, which is what's impacting the euro. US futures currently in the crapper - they quite often turn by NY time, but let's see ...

Not sure if you caught the news of a run-amok algo in USDJPY after NY 5pm close ... no, I don't buy it either, given events that followed.

Looking for a NS, and, at least a slow down in the moves. Wonder if a retrace to 1.366/5 will materialize.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,665
  • Feb 21, 2011 9:37pm Feb 21, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting duyk20
Yes. Small spread up bar on high volume, close off its high in the mist of high present supply
im not sure, but..
it might not be a squat since prior bar was bigger&closed higher.
i believe a squat bar should be higher & closed higher than the prior bar.
  • #13,666
  • Feb 21, 2011 11:02pm Feb 21, 2011 11:02pm
EUR/USD Long Entry 1.3589

Below are EUR/USD M15 & M5 Charts.

M15:
- Yesterday USA President Holiday. Range Day.
- Today 22-Feb Christchurch Earthquarke, Libra uncertainties, Oil price rises. EUR/USD down.
- Price went down till Stop Vol.
- NS doji with low vol.
- Next bar up above NS.
- Long Entry 1.3589

M5:
- Price went down till Shake Out/Stop Vol.
- Two NS with low vol.
- Bar above the two NS.
- Long Entry 1.3589

As happened to be on PC, I took this Long during Asian session.
Price now still around 1.3588.

Be careful as now is Asian session, and price went below 3rd Box Low.
Price may still drop for a shakeout.
Prefer to enter Long again during Lon/US sessions, once price went above 3rd Box Low and test that Box Low again around 1.3610.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,667
  • Edited 2:01am Feb 22, 2011 12:43am | Edited 2:01am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
you have to take care of the asians, might be that they send a kamikaze jet later to shake us out
HOLY SHYT . I must say that it was well guessed.

Edit: It almost touched lower tl to the pip. If hourly closes lower then I think I have to join to the retail herd and look for shorts. If not it would be good place to look for longs. Any ns/low volume test into that area would be nice.
  • #13,668
  • Edited 2:28am Feb 22, 2011 1:51am | Edited 2:28am
Quoting foxybunny
EUR/USD Long Entry 1.3589

Below are EUR/USD M15 & M5 Charts....
ability to spot bg strength, stopping volume / climatic down bar, and tests are just NOT enough...

i also still having trouble trying to figure out exactly how much strength is ENOUGH strength to make the price turn... or, which is the Real SD level price will react to.
  • #13,669
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:04am Feb 22, 2011 2:04am
Quoting 1pipperhour
HOLY SHYT . I must say that it was well guessed.

Edit: It almost touched lower tl to the pip. If hourly closes lower then I think I have to join to the retail herd and look for shorts. If not it would be good place to look for longs. Any ns/low volume test to that area would be nice.
Unless my MT4 is playing line drawing tricks (which it's prone to do, esp. between different timeframes), I think we pierced the TL. Regardless, looks like a good potential for longs, especially after that splattering 150+ pip pre-London move - haven't had one of those in months I believe. Now, to look for the test/NS (of course I meant to enter the TL touch/bounce), but I'd gotten tired of BE stop outs earlier. Was a little disconcerting as my M5 stopping volume seemed misplaced/and or too low.
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  • #13,670
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:15am Feb 22, 2011 2:15am
Quoting Beljevina
Unless my MT4 is playing line drawing tricks (which it's prone to do, esp. between different timeframes), I think we pierced the TL. Regardless, looks like a good potential for longs, especially after that splattering 150+ pip pre-London move - haven't had one of those in months I believe. Now, to look for the test/NS (of course I meant to enter the TL touch/bounce), but I'd gotten tired of BE stop outs earlier. Was a little disconcerting as my M5 stopping volume seemed misplaced/and or too low.
how do u see thru all thos lines and colour?
  • #13,671
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:15am Feb 22, 2011 2:15am
Quoting Beljevina
Unless my MT4 is playing line drawing tricks (which it's prone to do, esp. between different timeframes), I think we pierced the TL. Regardless, looks like a good potential for longs, especially after that splattering 150+ pip pre-London move - haven't had one of those in months I believe. Now, to look for the test/NS (of course I meant to enter the TL touch/bounce), but I'd gotten tired of BE stop outs earlier. Was a little disconcerting as my M5 stopping volume seemed misplaced/and or too low.
Strange. Mine missed with 1 pip. That candle's low is .3526 but tl is @3525.
  • #13,672
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:31am Feb 22, 2011 2:31am
we have our daily range completed, but don't fight the move- 3480 is on the cards imho.

i can't let you alone with the euro...see what happened the asian sharks hit it

middle eastern guys like the asian central banks are diversificating into euros heavily.
there is some big money flow from dollars to eur going on during non asian sessions out of that region.

unless this is done eur will be hard to trade longerterm without a big stop.

as i mentioned i like seans comments from fxlive. market heavily short usd so this had to happen:

http://www.forexlive.com/168351/all/...erly-short-usd
  • #13,673
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:55am Feb 22, 2011 2:55am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
just waiting for eur to break 3700 and enter on a successful test. if i do not get it, i do not trade today. shorts are too risky to me above 3640.
we never made it above 3700 so no longs. 3640 was broken on an increase of volume and immediately rejected with an upthrust. scaling down to 5m shows NDs in that area so shorts were on the table.

currently 3560 is it- if at all- we think about buying this has to be broken and tested.

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5...0222094750.png
  • #13,674
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:58am Feb 22, 2011 2:58am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Strange. Mine missed with 1 pip. That candle's low is .3526 but tl is @3525.
I could well have my line off, but I think I zoomed in to M15 to check it.

And just for everyone's benefit, if you draw lines/channels with MT4, on a M5 and all higher timeframes, you'll see that the magnet sensitivity feature and placement accuracy of MT4 isn't that good. I mean, if you place a line connecting 2 lows on say a H1 chart, it can look perfect on the H1, but flip to a M15, M5 or M1, and it is likely the line connection points are all of a suddent way off, or, in space nowhere close to a bar. With your Chart Autoscroll turned off (F8, Common tab), you can put your line touch points exactly on the bar, and then flipping back to H1 will give a more accurate view, as will M5 or anything else.

On a fx note, check that stupid seesaw that USDJPY is on; we're getting very little benefit from it in EURUSD - USDJPY 50 pips down, EURUSD 30 pips up. Could be worse I suppose ... like GU, lol!
  • #13,675
  • Feb 22, 2011 3:20am Feb 22, 2011 3:20am
very interesting spot of confluence on the daily.

testing the broken upper tl again which aligns with the lower quartile of the pitchfork which we already have proven to respect.

purely from a technical view adding to this, rsi 2 on daily is oversold which gives a long trigger when trading above 200 sma on daily.

todays close will be very interesting and give clues.

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/613...0222102721.png
  • #13,676
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:00am Feb 22, 2011 4:00am
Quoting Mtm
ability to spot bg strength, stopping volume / climatic down bar, and tests are just NOT enough...

i also still having trouble trying to figure out exactly how much strength is ENOUGH strength to make the price turn... or, which is the Real SD level price will react to.

VSA is just one type of analysis tool, so may not be enough as you mentioned.
I also would not know "exactly" how much strength/weakness to make a price turn, or whether anyone knows "exactly".
Perhaps the other VSAers here can respond to your "exactly" issue.

Be good for us to know where is "Real Support and Real Demand".
Mostly do this on the longer time frame.
Here simple Support/Resistance lines would be the easiest guide, and Market Profile / Auction Market Theory would add more value.
We really need to have a guide on where is Low Value and High Value of a currency where price will react, then use VSA to confirm and trigger once around these values.
Still need to learn more on MP/AMT.

For EUR/USD, now the main influence would be Libya unrest and rising oil prices.
Whenever there is country unrest, both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis may go haywire for a while.
Once conditions stabilised, the Technical Analysis will reflect the conditions more accurately, and so will VSA.

Like a few weeks ago, when this thread is mostly long EUR/USD, then with the Egypt Revolution, it went down for a while.
This Libya unrest may have similar effects to Egypt Revolution, except there is an additional Oil factor involved with Libya.
When country is unrest, usually there is a flight of safety back to $USD temporary.

So EUR/USD Short has better chance today, even though my bias is still Long that is based on the overall Volume movements and Box lines I have drawn previous charts and not just based solely on VSA.
  • #13,677
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:34am Feb 22, 2011 4:34am
funny, i just took an entry based on this 30m bar which nicely dipped into 3560 and is pretty strong.

my stop is a hourly closed below 3545

the current 10m should close above 3600.

http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/3...0222113014.png
  • #13,678
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:38am Feb 22, 2011 4:38am
It is funny, because it took off after immediately at the half hour. I was entering my trade size as it jumped 40 pips .
  • #13,679
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:41am Feb 22, 2011 4:41am
another proof that vsa is rubbish

i bought, made the screenshot and here we are.

eur remains bullish no matter what. asia dumps usd and buys eur like mad, drop it during asian session with their yennies, buy it like mad in eur + us

as i said, all that happened was a big flushout of longs. to make it more powerful, we should rapidly clear this price range so nobody attempts to step in.

Quoting Mr J
It is funny, because it took off after immediately at the half hour. I was entering my trade size as it jumped 40 pips .
  • #13,680
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:42am Feb 22, 2011 4:42am
Went long off the 20min chart at 1.3577, just closed @ 1.3632. Thank you very much!
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