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Trading using Murray Maths and Price Action

  • #2,261
  • Feb 21, 2011 11:51am Feb 21, 2011 11:51am
ok lets get back to theory.


So according MML theory is this just a simple sell ??
Wait and see what happens trade ?

Is MML saying 95% chance of this going back to 8/8 level ? (thats 94 pips)

Sounds too good to be true, so there must be some exceptions ?
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  • #2,262
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:15pm Feb 21, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting DrLobo
ok lets get back to theory.


So according MML theory is this just a simple sell ??
Wait and see what happens trade ?

Is MML saying 95% chance of this going back to 8/8 level ? (thats 94 pips)

Sounds too good to be true, so there must be some exceptions ?

If it was just was just based off the percentages then it would be easy. You have to look at the whole picture. I highlighted three areas, that are pattern, not a great one, but nonetheless a pattern. The price is has tried to break through and has not done so yet. Keep in mind the Murrey level, but also look at where the price is now. Are the consolidation areas? Yes there are. So, it has to go one way, eventually, and it would look to go down. The arrows at the bottom are pointing to weekly RSI, I use them to see where higher time frames are at. That line has not broken the level either, which means the weekly probably will not go any higher. Also, you can draw an excellent trend line from the bottom of the last swing. So basically, you have all things in your favor, looking at the chart, I would say go to 7/8's, right now your s/l wouldn't be so high. I don't trade this tf or pair, but I would wait for mid point to 8/8's and make the trade and take it to the 7/8's line. This is just what I see, you would have 70 pip sl and 160 tp. Not bad, also, look at the body of the candle on the 7/8's lines.
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  • #2,263
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:18pm Feb 21, 2011 1:18pm
What I meant by look at the bodies of the candles at the 7/8's lines is that they are telling you something....
  • #2,264
  • Feb 21, 2011 2:21pm Feb 21, 2011 2:21pm
Thanks for the analysis !

I would also add that on my chart I also have both Macd and Stochastic bearish divergence on the last impulse wave to +1/8 level, which supports the bearish change in direction which is now due, and classic candle stick says we have hirami type candle today (almost) bearish reversal sign.

So I think this is a trade theoretically appeara to be a good trade for MM followers.

On the hand we are betting against the train, the last week was a significant week and I think GBP is bullish long term like for the next month.
So I just cant see these resistance levels containing this train.

I also wonder if there can be a rule for MM which suggests if this is the second attempt on a MML then resistance will be far less effective ???

Because the +1/8 level already sent PA back down to 7/8 level already.
But PA just came right back ... and so I think its really not going to hold.

So I think the opposite to MM in this instance.

Shall be interesting to see what happens.

What MM trades are you looking at ??




Quoting knucklehead
If it was just was just based off the percentages then it would be easy....
  • #2,265
  • Feb 21, 2011 3:00pm Feb 21, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting DrLobo
Thanks for the analysis !

I would also add that on my chart I also have both Macd and Stochastic bearish divergence on the last impulse wave to +1/8 level, which supports the bearish change in direction which is now due, and classic candle stick says we have hirami type candle today (almost) bearish reversal sign.

So I think this is a trade theoretically appeara to be a good trade for MM followers.

On the hand we are betting against the train, the last week was a significant week and I think GBP is bullish long term like for the next month.
So...
Your right, but I wouldn't know go against what the chart says. Thats just me, I looked at the weekly and it does have some room to go up, and it may, but as for the daily chart, I think it goes down to the 7/8's. Once it gets there and bounces back up or retraces further we'll have a better idea. You gotta remember, and I posted this the other day in another thread. Emotions play so much, that even the big guys have paranoia and will get out of trade just as quick as a guy who trades mini lots. If you know the MM rules, adapt to your trading style, you can do very well.

As far as MM charts, I don't have any on my netbook since I treade so many pair all on higher tf's, I have them on the computer at the house. On this I have strictly PA. I'll be home in a few hours I think. I'll post some charts when I get there. I'll post a few other things to look for. By the way, I talked with a few MM buddies, hopefully they will start posting here more.
  • #2,266
  • Feb 21, 2011 4:12pm Feb 21, 2011 4:12pm
Does this pair respect for MML levels ???
This huge spike hit my stop.
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  • #2,267
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:39pm Feb 21, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting DrLobo
Does this pair respect for MML levels ???
This huge spike hit my stop.
CAD/JPY also did this.
  • #2,268
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:34pm Feb 21, 2011 7:34pm
Here is a trade I am in on, its been up to 70 and down to 30. I expect it to hit both my targets tonight. Lots of trades should have been entered, but I was eating some dinner and missed a lot of them. I knew I should have opened a beer and set everything up. Still a lot of opportunity on the higher tf's.
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  • #2,269
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:40pm Feb 21, 2011 7:40pm
Looks like the g/u is going down also...
  • #2,270
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:46pm Feb 21, 2011 7:46pm
This beautiful...I haven't set any s/l's or tp's. My s/l will be in the positive, and I may adjust the tp. Waiting to get how it makes feel before deciding what to do.
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  • #2,271
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:49pm Feb 21, 2011 7:49pm
This mf'er is moving quick. i put a pitchfork to help with time and price prediction, but if it keeps this up, it will be way ahead of target.
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  • #2,272
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:53pm Feb 21, 2011 7:53pm
Here's the 15m I missed. Hit the target and then some. I set it up as if I would have entered it. As an example.
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  • #2,273
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:56pm Feb 21, 2011 7:56pm
It is starting to retrace a little. Down to +100 pips, so I set the s/l at a +45.
  • #2,274
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:18pm Feb 21, 2011 8:18pm
Later people...waitin to see what happens during Europe session. Off to drink some beer.
  • #2,275
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:27am Feb 22, 2011 2:27am
Wow Murrey Math just stopped the GU train !!!



Quoting knucklehead
Looks like the g/u is going down also...
  • #2,276
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:44am Feb 22, 2011 5:44am
Quoting DrLobo
Wow Murrey Math just stopped the GU train !!!

Yea, it looks to be going down for the time being. That 7/8's is looking good. Did you see the email I sent you?
  • #2,277
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:05am Feb 22, 2011 6:05am
Almost 300 Pips last night on this trade alone. So it hit my cycle target and has now retraced. I drew some arrows on what is giving an indication where price is headed. I expect after this to retrace long again. Now here is where the MM comes in for me, I still have quite a bit of room to 8/8 lines, so if it retraces long, I'll probably re-enter.
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  • #2,278
  • Feb 22, 2011 8:50am Feb 22, 2011 8:50am
Hi just having a look at this trade, good result

But what made you enter this trade based on MML theory ?
I dont see anything special or specific about 3/8 lines which would have suggested that price was going to turn.

Thanks






Quoting knucklehead
Here is a trade I am in on, its been up to 70 and down to 30. I expect it to hit both my targets tonight. Lots of trades should have been entered, but I was eating some dinner and missed a lot of them. I knew I should have opened a beer and set everything up. Still a lot of opportunity on the higher tf's.
  • #2,279
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:10am Feb 22, 2011 9:10am
Well, I use Murrey more as s/r than anything. The percentages can, for the most part can eff off. But as far as s/r lines, I have to question whether there are any better other than the ones drawn on higher tf's to determine the trend. But, I do take into consideration what line it on when deciding, but its one of the last deciding factors I use. There are several who use Elliot Wave with Murrey have have very good success with it. One of my buddies has a blog, I'll send it to you to check out. But, as far as if a trade is near the 8/8's line, and it looks good long to me, I'm in. This makes the Murrey purists mad, but whatever. Murrey s/r lines and price action is an excellent trading system. Ipost over in the trading system under Skunny's indicator free trading. Check it out. Made a good trade last night with it also. That was just pa.
  • #2,280
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:01pm Feb 22, 2011 5:01pm
Here you see, 2 different Murrey Indicators, on the same pair and on the same time frame.

Result = Different Murrey Lines drawn are drawn depending on what indicator you are using. One of the indicators is saying the pair is in oversold territory and so is hitting resistance level (+1/8 territory) , and the other is saying that pair is facing Support from going down any further (4/4 Level coming down)
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