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Silent Service Method

  • #11,901
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:20am Feb 19, 2011 11:20am
Wrote two quick articles on the blog.....which is still in transition, so there isn't much beyond that there. (Moving to different server....)

Chris
  • #11,902
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:35am Feb 20, 2011 8:35am
Check out the AUD/USD......Also notice the AUD/CAD. It looks like we may be seeing another run in the AUD/USD starting to wind up.
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  • #11,903
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:50am Feb 20, 2011 8:50am
Quoting clockwork71
Check out the AUD/USD......Also notice the AUD/CAD. It looks like we may be seeing another run in the AUD/USD starting to wind up.
It is starting to seem more and more like the 2008/09 financial crisis is giving way to more optimism again.

I agree with your observation although I'll wait for a break and a pullback before daring anything.
  • #11,904
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:01am Feb 20, 2011 9:01am
Quoting clockwork71
Check out the AUD/USD......Also notice the AUD/CAD. It looks like we may be seeing another run in the AUD/USD starting to wind up.
Very nice Chris. I have been waiting for some time now to get my payback on the Aussie. As you have noted, it has been consolidating for some time now. Ready to rock...! Added to watch list, for sure.

A nice long + carry trade would do wonders.
  • #11,905
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:44am Feb 21, 2011 6:44am
Quoting o990l6mh
It is starting to seem more and more like the 2008/09 financial crisis is giving way to more optimism again.

I agree with your observation although I'll wait for a break and a pullback before daring anything.

Agreed. However, I feel a bubble. That seems to be the way of things now.
  • #11,906
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:06am Feb 21, 2011 7:06am
Quoting Venice
Very nice Chris. I have been waiting for some time now to get my payback on the Aussie. As you have noted, it has been consolidating for some time now. Ready to rock...! Added to watch list, for sure.

A nice long + carry trade would do wonders.
Concerning a carry trade, I would like to point out the following.

People often talk about spreads when they talk about trade costs. Now lets consider Alpari UK, which is quite a respectable retail broker. Its rollover policy can be found at http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/trading_a...st_policy.html

In a "fair" situation, the negative (positive) interest rollover on a long position should be of similar size in absolute terms as the positive (negative) interest rollover on a short position. Picking out a pair that has an "unfair" rollover policy, consider:

long short
AUDNZD+0.160 pips -1.150 pips

Here, there is a considerable "cost to carry", as there is a huge inequality between what you receive when you're long and what you pay when you're short. This cost to carry is a cost that to my knowledge only few people consider when trading.
Also, you probably know that from a theoretical perspective a carry trade isn't a free lunch. According to theory, the forward rate should be equal to the spot rate times the interest rate differential (Covered interest rate parity), and the forward rate is supposed to be an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate (Uncovered interest rate parity). Empirical evidence doesn't support this theory though, but thats another discussion.

Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that the carry trade is overrated, and that if you're not trading well-researched fundamentals it is probably best not to consider the interest rate differential/carry trade effect. Sorry that I got carried away on the carry trade issue!
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #11,907
  • Feb 21, 2011 10:41am Feb 21, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Noloqy
Concerning a carry trade, I would like to point out the following.

People often talk about spreads when they talk about trade costs. Now lets consider Alpari UK, which is quite a respectable retail broker. Its rollover policy can be found at http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/trading_a...st_policy.html

In a "fair" situation, the negative (positive) interest rollover on a long position should be of similar size in absolute terms as the positive (negative) interest rollover on a short position. Picking out a pair that has...

The carry trade is dead, and it isn't coming back until the banks actually offer real, or at least close to real rates. Hell.....several pairs are negative swap in either direction!
  • #11,908
  • Feb 21, 2011 10:42am Feb 21, 2011 10:42am
Just read a story about FXCM getting sued by two more entities involving their lying during the IPO of their stock.

Good.
  • #11,909
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:38pm Feb 21, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
Just read a story about FXCM getting sued by two more entities involving their lying during the IPO of their stock.

Good.
Just a few more lawsuits for them and we'll be able to smell those pants on fire...
  • #11,910
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:06pm Feb 22, 2011 1:06pm
Dear All

I am reading this thread with interest and I still have a lot to read and learn. I like what I read here.
In the meanwhile, I noticed this action on a EURNZD.
Is this an interresting area for PA to happen to the downside or break out to the upside?

This pair looks like out of steam to the downside but who knows?


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Kind Regards zol
  • #11,911
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:04pm Feb 22, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting zoli
Dear All

I am reading this thread with interest and I still have a lot to read and learn. I like what I read here.
In the meanwhile, I noticed this action on a EURNZD.
Is this an interresting area for PA to happen to the downside or break out to the upside?

This pair looks like out of steam to the downside but who knows?


Attachment

Attachment

Attachment

Hi Zol....

Yes, you are correct, this is an area where you would hope or expect to see some kind of reaction in price.
  • #11,912
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:42pm Feb 22, 2011 10:42pm
Had to show y'all, meet Amos, our 9 week old boxer pup!

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...ephotos019.jpg

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...repuppy002.jpg
  • #11,913
  • Feb 22, 2011 11:37pm Feb 22, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting clockwork71
Hi Zol....

Yes, you are correct, this is an area where you would hope or expect to see some kind of reaction in price.
Hi CW

thanks for the reply

I also would like to post my thoughts as to how I would like to see this unfolding. If it does not do something similar to my plan I will keep watching.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Kind Regards zol
  • #11,914
  • Feb 23, 2011 1:43am Feb 23, 2011 1:43am
Quoting Low
Had to show y'all, meet Amos, our 9 week old boxer pup!
He's a beauty, rubber chicken - great toy!
  • #11,915
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:04am Feb 23, 2011 9:04am
Quoting zoli
Hi CW

thanks for the reply

I also would like to post my thoughts as to how I would like to see this unfolding. If it does not do something similar to my plan I will keep watching.

Attachment
Hello Zol,

If I could just say a few things about your chart.

1. The areas where you placed your S & R "zones" look pretty good. A few questions are, what timeframe did you draw these on, do they come into play on the longer timeframes?

2. Careful with you "forecasting." If you look at how long you have your arrows bouncing around for, you have tried to predict what price will do 6 months from now.

I think it is good to have a "bias" for the overall direction of the market, i.e. up or down, but one surprising news event can ruin that. Instead, wait for price to get to your areas of "reaction" and see how it's acting. Let the actual, in the moment, price movements show you what affect the S or R "zone" will have on the near term direction.

I hope this helps...
  • #11,916
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:00am Feb 23, 2011 10:00am
Quoting bgin2end
Hello Zol,

If I could just say a few things about your chart.

1. The areas where you placed your S & R "zones" look pretty good....
  • #11,917
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:17am Feb 23, 2011 10:17am
Here is yet another issue....that Wall Street will ignore and keep buying anyway.

http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retir...anaging_wealth
  • #11,918
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:18am Feb 23, 2011 10:18am
Quoting Low
Had to show y'all, meet Amos, our 9 week old boxer pup!

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...ephotos019.jpg

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...repuppy002.jpg
Congrats Low, he looks just like you!

  • #11,919
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:20am Feb 23, 2011 10:20am
Quoting bgin2end
Hello Zol,

If I could just say a few things about your chart.

1. The areas where you placed your S & R "zones" look pretty good....
I agree with this post. The areas look good, and the places where you are "expecting" things to play out look good as well. But forecasting it is a difficult thing at best. Keep those areas marked on your chart, and wait to see exactly what happens.

Your picking up the S/R area well though. Just make sure to stay flexible, and he is right - a bias is good, but anything beyond that and you may just talk yourself into taking a bad trade......

Chris
  • #11,920
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:37am Feb 23, 2011 11:37am
Quoting bgin2end
Hello Zol,

If I could just say a few things about your chart.

1. The areas where you placed your S & R "zones" look pretty good....
Hi bgin2end

thank you for your reply.
Now, that I think it over, it seems rather funny that I am forecasting for half a year. Or absurd. I am actually the type of guy who does not know where the price is going. I highlighted, though, what would be nice and if happens so and some PA pops up I can will look closer for a trade.

For the S/R areas I looked at weekly and monthly first that I zoomed in to daily to check how they look like over there.

As I write EURNZD is creeping higher but now it is quite vertical and ready to do some heavy correction.

On EURCAD I am long and have problems to decide what to do.

Charts:

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Kind Regards zol
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