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vsa with Malcolm

  • #13,501
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:18am Feb 20, 2011 7:18am
Quoting Mtm
...
The part which you mentioned "low volume as we approach a resistance is (actually) no buying interest" is a bit confusing though..
u said it was 'no selling interest'. it is in fact 'no buying interest', because if there were buying interest, price would have broken upward, passing through the 'resistance' area.
the area after the hi.vol.shakeout u mentioned is what u can call as no selling interest area, since lower prices didnt materialize (SM not interested in lower prices).

im still learning like u, Sir...
  • #13,502
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:22am Feb 20, 2011 7:22am
if you get conflicting signals on different timeframes, which takes priority?

15min may just have average vol bar, but the 3x 5min bars which created it may be 2 low vol bars then a high vol bar as supply or demand comes in. 15min would show nothing interesting, but 5min would indicate possible trade.

would the 5min take priority as it is closer to the leading edge of whats happening?
  • #13,503
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:27am Feb 20, 2011 7:27am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the next bar was down, immediately testing on low vol. the following mark down was bought heavily again....
this seem to be a regular SM tactic.. buying at discount
  • #13,504
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:33am Feb 20, 2011 7:33am
Quoting ewokuk
if you get conflicting signals on different timeframes, which takes priority?
...
can u give a concrete example?

i dont think it will conflict because u are essentially looking at the same vol. info in a dissected fashion. if u watch 15min, then drop down to 5min, u are just looking at the details inside the 15min candle...15min is the aggregate of 3 5min candles.
to avoid confusion, for now, just focus on 1 timeframe.

hope that makes sense
  • #13,505
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:36am Feb 20, 2011 7:36am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the next bar was down, immediately testing on low vol. the following mark down was bought heavily again. since we broke the highs, it has now been invalidated, unless we test it with too much remaining supply present.

I need ur opinion about this .

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13496
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #13,506
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:44am Feb 20, 2011 7:44am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the next bar was down, immediately testing on low vol. the following mark down was bought heavily again. since we broke the highs, it has now been invalidated, unless we test it with too much remaining supply present.
OK understand - thanks Dr
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,507
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:46am Feb 20, 2011 7:46am
Volume shows the activity of trading during this time period. If the volume is taken in isolation it means very little - volume should be looked at in relative terms. So, if you compare today's volume with volume during the previous thirty days [or bars] it is fairly easy to see if today's volume is high, low or average compared to the volume seen in the past. If you stand thirty people in a line, it is easy for you to see who the tall ones are, compared to the others. This is a skill of human observation, so you will have no problems identifying whether the volume is relatively high, low or average. ~ Tom Williams from "Tradeguider Primer"
  • #13,508
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:02am Feb 20, 2011 8:02am
Quoting ewokuk
if you get conflicting signals on different timeframes, which takes priority?

15min may just have average vol bar, but the 3x 5min bars which created it may be 2 low vol bars then a high vol bar as supply or demand comes in. 15min would show nothing interesting, but 5min would indicate possible trade.

would the 5min take priority as it is closer to the leading edge of whats happening?
They will both be valid. But you have to realise that the M5 will produce smaller swings than the M15. The M15 will produce smaller swings than the M30 etc.

So if the M30 says down and the M5 says up. Then what is likely to happen is a small move up followed by a larger move down.

Armed with this information, you can use it to help with your exits. Use the H1 to find the intermediate trend, then goto the M5 and trade in the direction of the H1 trend only, ignoring the 'counter trend' setups.
  • #13,509
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:11am Feb 20, 2011 8:11am
yeah what i am thinking is m5 will possibly produce smaller swings, but will also get you in a lot earlier for bigger moves than if you waited for 1h to show the same thing. so perhaps get in on m5 in 4h trend direction, and start checking the higher 15-1h tfs to see if they show signs of the move being bigger.

like on a daily low vol test, on m5 youd probably see the buying coming in at the bottom and might already be long from a really strong place by the time the next day confirms the test? at which point your m5 intraday trade for 50-100 pips turns into a multi day trade for a few hundred which can be added to along the way. of course you would probably be initially going against the trend on that m5, but isnt that the main advantage of vsa, you get to see the changes just before they happen so the best entries will likely be against trend.
  • #13,510
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:12am Feb 20, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Larseg
Volume is one of the most popular indicators used by traders, particularly technical traders. It has become accepted wisdom that high volume needs to accompany any move in a contract if that move is to be believed. For this reason, volume filters are usually added to trading systems in both back testing and real-time trading.

As with most aspects of technical analysis, we are told that we can apply the volume rules to any contract, so volume filters and analysis are
used on markets as diverse as shares and futures. The two main stories told to...
WOW! err....

I think i will stick with Malcolm's posts. Short & Sharp & less scuba-ring
  • #13,511
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:15am Feb 20, 2011 8:15am
Quoting Larseg
Volume is one of the most popular indicators used by traders, particularly technical traders. It has become accepted wisdom that high volume needs to accompany any move in a contract if that move is to be believed. For this reason, volume filters are usually added to trading systems in both back testing and real-time trading.

As with most aspects of technical analysis, we are told that we can apply the volume rules to any contract, so volume filters and analysis are
used on markets as diverse as shares and futures. The two main stories told to...
Interesting post Larseg. Thanks for taking the time to write it. The 'low volume' during an up move in a small cap market being missleading part, is not entirely correct in my opinion. Whilst the volume will be low because there simply isn't enough product there to buy, the reletive amount will still be high in comparison to the 'other' bars in the area of the mark up. So we should see an increase in volume initiating the move.

Your post makes a good read and has some points to ponder. If someone had sold the market simply to hedge their position and it was big enough to see the volume change, it would have an effect on the market price, whether it was intended or not. The effect would be proportional to the size of the order. I would hope that the correct reading of the chart would identify this importance or lack of it.

I really look forward to your continued posting in this thread.
  • #13,512
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:20am Feb 20, 2011 8:20am
Quoting malcolmb14
this is one of the most powerful things out there and i do not know why , but is a large part of what i have been up to on a weekly in coordination with vsa to determine direction for week

Not going to say what it is , let you guys and girls figure it out

BUT each one of those bars is a Monday ..

SPOT THE PATTERN happens 90% of time


Attachment
if you mean monday down on low vol and rest of week up, 2 of those are big fat up bars
  • #13,513
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:36am Feb 20, 2011 8:36am
Quoting Intel
Interesting post Larseg....
based on his subsequent post, that post was an 'article from Gary Norden'
  • #13,514
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:38am Feb 20, 2011 8:38am
Quoting malcolmb14
this is one of the most powerful things out there and i do not know why , but is a large part of what i have been up to on a weekly in coordination with vsa to determine direction for week

Not going to say what it is , let you guys and girls figure it out

BUT each one of those bars is a Monday ..

SPOT THE PATTERN happens 90% of time


Attachment
Come on then, I cant see what all 5 mondays have in common?
  • #13,515
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:44am Feb 20, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Intel
Come on then, I cant see what all 5 mondays have in common?
From what I observed, if there is gap down on monday, the direction of the week will generally be up and vice verse for the gap up. If there is relatively no gap at all, the week will be basically in range, or in range for a few days, then maybe Thu n Fri will define the trend... Not sure though
  • #13,516
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:45am Feb 20, 2011 8:45am
holy shit 7.656 !!! nah i would much rather have us bonds at 3.2% yield as i want the worst possible return on investment I can get lol

Quoting tfour3
please check bond rates, isn,t portugal offering 10-year bond yields at 7.656. Attachment
i am currently a bit biased. but i am seeing new yearly highs.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,517
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:54am Feb 20, 2011 8:54am
look to the higher time frames ... 4hour and 8 hours charts .... the trend was down on the 4hour as noted on the vertical bars on this chart

If you are looking for the big moves of 350 to 400 pip weekly ranges then you have to consider all time frames from daily down to 2hour and enter on a 30 min in the right spot.

what is the right spot ? areas of s.r

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu152.png Size: 260 KB




Quoting Mtm
Hi Dr G,
I was studying through your explanations and also looking at my own chart at the same time.

i have marked areas where i see weakness in black dotted lines and strength in orange dotted lines. I did not take any of the trades these whole time because i either have been waiting for the test/NDs to appear (and they never did) or i must have missed them when they did appear.

and i not entirely sure if i marked them all correctly or not.. as you can see i have also marked section "A and B" with some strength, but that part of the price...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,518
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:56am Feb 20, 2011 8:56am
thanks for spending the time to post this , really great read

Quoting Larseg
Volume is one of the most popular indicators used by traders, particularly technical traders. It has become accepted wisdom that high volume needs to accompany any move in a contract if that move is to be believed. For this reason, volume filters are usually added to trading systems in both back testing and real-time trading.

As with most aspects of technical analysis, we are told that we can apply the volume rules to any contract, so volume filters and analysis are
used on markets as diverse as shares and futures. The two main stories told to...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,519
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:11am Feb 20, 2011 9:11am
Quoting supremeChaos
u said it was 'no selling interest'. it is in fact 'no buying interest', because if there were buying interest, price would have broken upward, passing through the 'resistance' area.
the area after the hi.vol.shakeout u mentioned is what u can call as no selling interest area, since lower prices didnt materialize (SM not interested in lower prices).

im still learning like u, Sir...
ahhh, i see what u meant now

Initially, i thought it meant no selling interest at the resistence area because i had the impression that SM sell on upbars..when nearing resistence area... i forgot that i should also take into account that when at resistence area, if there are no buying interest, ND (low volume bars) will appear too, ... so, think have to study a bit more on this one...


Quoting ewokuk
if you get conflicting signals on different timeframes, which takes priority?...
This question has been asked a few times before and i remembered the previous advise given was to consider the larger timeframe first.

Quoting malcolmb14
look to the higher time frames ... 4hour and 8 hours charts .... the trend was down on the 4hour as noted on the vertical bars on this chart

If you are looking for the big moves of 350 to 400 pip weekly ranges then you have to consider all time frames from daily down to 2hour and enter on a 30 min in the right spot.

what is the right spot ? areas of s.r
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1298213637
right... so far i am working most of the time on 1 TF, the largest i go to is 1H... seldom look at H4 as i can't seem to read vsa bars accurately from there..
but thanks for the reminder, i will keep it in mind!
  • #13,520
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:13am Feb 20, 2011 9:13am
just treat each chart as it's own enitity

in gold we have r at 1390 and 1400 areas

from left to right vertical lines

sellers as candles ended way off highs on high volume
very low volume effort to rise ... buying pressure decreasing
sellers hitting price at 1390 r

look for some form of move down , then a move up and a no demand or upthrust , that is your entry , do not try and pick exact top instead be like a lion stalking its prey , wait for that no demand on start wave 3 . the top may not come where you think it should. News is middle east unrest right now . They may use this to move gold higher

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu153.png Size: 128 KB








Quoting donfriday
DR G, DO YOU HAVE ANY OPINION ON THIS GOLD ? i AM LOOKING FOR SELL IN COMING WEEK BUT NOT TO SURE ABOUT THE CORRELATION WITH USD
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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