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vsa with Malcolm

  • #13,461
  • Feb 19, 2011 3:42pm Feb 19, 2011 3:42pm
Off to bed, good night everyone I'm eagerly look forward to Monday
  • #13,462
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:50pm Feb 19, 2011 6:50pm
Quoting Intel
In your first paragraph, you are correct.

As for the shake out....

You are concerning yourself with the market mechanics during the printing of bars. I suggest you dont at this stge. However, you have asked so I will give you the brief version.

Firstly, I want to make sure you understand what makes a price go up and down. This is simple, if there is more people trying to buy, price will go up. If there are more people trying to sell, price will go down.

Ok, so why would SM want the price to go down if they are bullish? They want to raise...

Another bookmarked Intel post
  • #13,463
  • Feb 19, 2011 7:59pm Feb 19, 2011 7:59pm
1st thing I will discuss .. daily and weekly ranges. eu moves about 130 pip a day right now , some days in a week will be less and some days more , day traders only need to capture 40 pip of this range to make 4% a week

BUT what do they do .. one trade , two trades , three trades , 4 .. next thing you know they are 'a.d.d trader' . all you need is one trade , one sure set up and 40 pip is EASY

weekly range is 350 pip in eu . why do you think I was jesting with magix all week ? do you really think i was concerned I was underwater on a eu sell of 1.3610 ? not once I saw the test day monday and no demand on dx , in fact I added at 1,3480 and again at 1.3610 due to this. The weekly missed range by 30 pip. I waited and watched for that add entry. I knew bottom of week was in when we saw the test bar on monday , so could assume top of week would be around 1.3750 area , one trade , added 6% on account this week with 2% risk , if eur goes my way I have no risk next week and will leave longs running and should add 7% if eu goes UP into 1.3900 / 1.4 area , which at the moment there is no reason it shouldn't unless something changes in the charts.

Now in the course of getting to ranges there will be the choppy day or 2 .These are the days that the a.d.d trader gets killed in .... overtrading is the death of any trader IMHO. How many times have you had 5% and then a.d.d trader comes out in you and makes you lose that and 2% more ? greed is really what drive this. I have made 6 and want another 6 . well weekly range maybe done by Tuesday and all that trading wed to fri will do is get you into the chop cycle. Once daily and weekly ranges are done I typically stay out.

Counter trend trading. some are good at this , Magix is one , but WHY ? here is the 60 min for the week , low on monday test day , followed by higher low on tuesday . Is it better to buy dips once this channel formed or sell rallies ? trading against the 60 or 2 hour trend is just a nice way to lose money unless you are good at it and take 20 pip a time .. again a.d.d trading . I would rather hit low of week one trade for 300 to 350 pip then spend hours trying to trade against the trend in a.d.d mode to end up with 20 trades , 15 stopped out at be .. ( most never have a loss according to ff) and 5 trades for 20 pip , 140 hours spent looking at screen ... I HAVE BEEN THERE AND DONE THAT SO SPEAK FROM EXPERIENCE

making 4% a week in this game is simple .... by being patient and not overtrading , waiting for the right vsa set ups and when the markets get confusing or unclear shutting things down and not trading till the market works itself out

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 60.jpg Size: 209 KB






Quoting duyk20
That's what I'm trying to do, Dr. Still too much emotion while trading.
What's your anticipation on Monday, Dr? Since monday is holiday in US, and of course options expiration.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,464
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:22pm Feb 19, 2011 8:22pm
so based on

1) vsa
2) 1-2-3 buy formation and fes
3) market symmetry
4) months ranges ( 850 pip assuming 1,3430 was month low)

here we have out targets ... 1.4280 by end of month
1.4400 my mid march

obviously lots of resistance levels to break above us so playing this day by day and will be monitoring things carefully for any signs of sellers

I know this will be laughed at by the macd and stochastics traders but all i got to say to that is

WHATEVER !!

lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu142.png Size: 195 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,465
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:59pm Feb 19, 2011 8:59pm
fundamental traders are laughing too.

Quoting malcolmb14
so based on

1) vsa
2) 1-2-3 buy formation and fes
3) market symmetry
4) months ranges ( 850 pip assuming 1,3430 was month low)

here we have out targets ... 1.4280 by end of month
1.4400 my mid march

obviously lots of resistance levels to break above us so playing this day by day and will be monitoring things carefully for any signs of sellers

I know this will be laughed at by the macd and stochastics traders but all i got to say to that is

WHATEVER !!

lol

Attachment
  • #13,466
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:04pm Feb 19, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting duyk20
That's what I'm trying to do, Dr. Still too much emotion while trading....
I already posted this chart. I have added a couple of things for this post though.

This is not a post about the virtues of Auction Market Theory, but rather a post about Risk and Reward. My personal views on this subject have changed. I never used to set profit targets and therefore it was pretty fruitless to think about risk/reward since the reward part was undetermined. Now, however, with Auction Market Theory, I can think in terms of profit targets and thus risk and reward can be calculated.

Again, this post isn't about Auction Market Theory. Any type of trader that takes trades with a risk/reward ratio of 1:5 can be wrong 4 times out of 5 and still make money. It is much easier on the psyche when you take trades like this on a consistent basis.

The second chart is from earlier in the day. Many astute VSA traders on this thread saw this set up and were looking to get long. None, however, mentioned this. The set-up appeared in the unfair low territory for both the developing value area and yesterday's value area. The risk of a long would be just below the Ultra High Volume down bar (green line) roughly 10 points from the entry on the test. But the reward is at least to the top of Yesterday's value area which is 60 points. That's a 1:6 risk/reward ratio. Again, you could be wrong 5 out of 6 times and still make money. That makes trading without emotion easier.

Now, if New buyers step in, at the VAH then price can continue to rise and the reward continues to increase. Of course, the risk stays fixed. This is the ideal situation in AMT a responsive buying at unfair lows that turns into initiative buying at unfair highs. But taking out the AMT, you still should see that this is the ideal situation you should be looking for in terms of risk vs. potential reward. You only have to be right one out of every 6 times to make money.

Again, let's forget about "unfair highs, Value Areas, and Virgin POCs". Instead just focus on risk and reward. If you are using a risk/reward ratio closer to 1:1 then every trade matters and that can take a toll on you. On the other hand, if you are only taking trades that have at least a 1:3 ratio then your focus is not on winning every trade, but rather finding trades with such a ratio.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #13,467
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:11pm Feb 19, 2011 9:11pm
The attached document is a good read for traders.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc GBPUSD Bear Call.doc   173 KB | 510 downloads
  • #13,468
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:47pm Feb 19, 2011 9:47pm
Thank you Mal and HG, those are some good reads
I might have to take a look at AMT thread every now and then
  • #13,469
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:48pm Feb 19, 2011 9:48pm
This thread is amazing. We are almost at 1000 pages. I think when we get there we should have a celebration. Let's have a get together on Malc's private yacht.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #13,470
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:31pm Feb 19, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting HiddenGap
This thread is amazing. We are almost at 1000 pages. I think when we get there we should have a celebration. Let's have a get together on Malc's private yacht.
One of the traders I have come to appreciate on this thread, is you HG.

I seen one of your charts on the hidden gap and realized I finally found somebody else who watches the traded areas on the charts in a fashion I call "clearing the books", that you refer to in your Nick Hidden Gap.

Having a look through the charts you previously posted on the volume clear through the supply zone, definitely something I watch for, if not for volume but for a matter of clearing the daily roll over or true daily open.

I take a lot of flack for trading off the shorter charts, but hey, each TF is to those who can prosper...or to each his own..

Having a look at the 5m chart, you can see the burst of price through daily open, only to come back to this area to find support. Areas on 5m chart.

Next important chart, viewed on any time frame, but I have chosen the H4 for the illustration. Easier to see viewed then micro candles on an H1 or inaccuracies of the broker daily candles. Yeah, I know, my H4 candles are broker time candles, but all the same, I think the point is well shown.

Having a look at Fridays rejection is quite interesting, because this happens to be pretty close to the pip of a month that has spent more time below monthly open then above. We aren't seeing this line tested as support, we are seeing it tested as resistance.

There is nothing to say that we will not break through this come the following week, and even though we have had a massive buy cycle this week, I am still feeling bullish towards the USD, and had this limit me on the ranges of my trading...admittedly using my bias to look for short opportunities instead of watching the opportunities to buy off the dead cat bounce on Wednesday after hammer down from hourly resistance.

I know what Mal is looking for in the weeks to come, but having a look at all possibilities, I still see us finding some weakness off this line of rejection, and am still in anticipation of testing daily support...

Right wrong or indifferent...I have the ability and mindset that will allow me to walk into and out of any trade that has the possibility to shake a few shekles into my back hipster.

Thanks for taking the time on your charts and following up with a stellar explanation HG...

Chart 1 M5, break of daily roll and test.
Chart 2 H4, Monthly open and current line of rejection.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyr.jpg Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly open.jpg Size: 103 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #13,471
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:19pm Feb 19, 2011 11:19pm
fundamental traders ... lol they are completely whacked in the head to be honest . Nothing has changed in the us so please explain to me why dj is heading to take out pre recession highs ? has anything changed ? NO

everything we need to know is in the charts... ignore news . That is best course of action



Quoting mrxit
fundamental traders are laughing too.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,472
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:20pm Feb 19, 2011 11:20pm
Of course,

it is amazing thread..thanks to all of You, I am still in the game, like it, love it and to be continue....
I wish to all of You a lot of PIPS!!!!

Marcel
Quoting HiddenGap
This thread is amazing. We are almost at 1000 pages. I think when we get there we should have a celebration. Let's have a get together on Malc's private yacht.
  • #13,473
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:31pm Feb 19, 2011 11:31pm
This is fantastic message!!!

day traders only need to capture 40 pip of this range to make 4% a week

I think Your messages HOW TO TRADE are " without borders ". I read this message and I realized that self control and patience is the KEY..remember " patience pills " from Auslanco thread..it is the best medication in this game....

MI

Thanks for reminder how to trade....


Quoting malcolmb14
1st thing I will discuss .. daily and weekly ranges. eu moves about 130 pip a day right now , some days in a week will be less and some days more , day traders only need to capture 40 pip of this range to make 4% a week

BUT what do they do .. one trade , two trades , three trades , 4 .. next thing you know they are 'a.d.d trader' . all you need is one trade , one sure set up and 40 pip is EASY

weekly range is 350 pip in eu . why do you think I was jesting with magix all week ? do you really think i was concerned I was underwater on a eu sell...
  • #13,474
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:32pm Feb 19, 2011 11:32pm
good post Magix .... daily roll is simple s/r . ' They' always seem to work the price so that we end up at some s/r level each day. 1.3700 happens to be a major resistance area on the charts and area of close friday and in order to punch it thru 1.3750 prior months high and as you said monthly open ( I think prior months high may be more important but that is another topic of discussion) we need to gather steam and dry up all overhead supply.

I have heard it say that big banks preset all the areas for each currency at least a week ahead of time. News is just generate to justify why the market is doing this n that .

I think we linger under 1.3700 area , but not lower than 1.3640 and then IF next week is to be another up week will punch thru that resistance zone on a 200 pip high volume day on Tuesday when the US market reopens .

BTW i am not an indie trader but this bull div in rsx on a 3 hour showed the long as well. rsx is by far one of the very best divergence indies out there if you must use indies. I went rsi to rsx , to vsa

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu144.png Size: 225 KB






Quoting Magix
One of the traders I have come to appreciate on this thread, is you HG.

I seen one of your charts on the hidden gap and realized I finally found somebody else who watches the traded areas on the charts in a fashion I call "clearing the books", that you refer to in your Nick Hidden Gap.

Having a look through the charts you previously posted on the volume clear through the supply zone, definitely something I watch for, if not for volume but for a matter of clearing the daily roll over or true daily open.

I take a lot of flack for trading off...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,475
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:38pm Feb 19, 2011 11:38pm
why was i talking about 1.3610 break up and add on a test ?

this is what started the debate last week

well simple really and for those of you that have note figured it out yet .... noted in chart below , this level was tested on2nd 8th and 9th feb to the pip

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu146.png Size: 227 KB

,
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,476
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:45pm Feb 19, 2011 11:45pm
this is one of the most powerful things out there and i do not know why , but is a large part of what i have been up to on a weekly in coordination with vsa to determine direction for week

Not going to say what it is , let you guys and girls figure it out

BUT each one of those bars is a Monday ..

SPOT THE PATTERN happens 90% of time


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu148.png Size: 213 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,477
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:45pm Feb 19, 2011 11:45pm
I still advise that ALL traders on this thread download the 7-page microsoft word document I attached on the previous page. Maybe I should state it a little more strongly this time: IT IS A MUST READ!
  • #13,478
  • Feb 20, 2011 12:05am Feb 20, 2011 12:05am
wow .. and so wrong ... lol .. BUT well though out post

here is why and these have NOT gone away

vertical line 1 .... highest volume in history of Gu ...did everyone just start trading in 2010 ?

vertical line 2 ...test / doji on Lowest volume since start 2009 .

you may get a 200 pip trade but NOT a 3500 pip trades .. sorry to burst your bubble.

1.6800 to 1.7 target on monthly right now but lots wood to chop above us. Monthly supports bulls for now

BUT i am a scuba trader so what do I know?

wow .. sorry just had another look ... 800 pip stop for 3500 pip trade . and I thought i was a scuba trader . You must be one of those divers that works in 600 ft of water on mixed gases and lives in chambers on the ocean floor ... lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu150.png Size: 165 KB








[quote=forexcompoun;4413420]I still advise that ALL traders on this thread download the 7-page [quote=forexcompoun;4413420]I still advise that ALL traders on this thread download the 7-page [quote=forexcompoun;4413420]I still advise that ALL traders on this thread download the 7-page
Quoting forexcompoun
I still advise that ALL traders on this thread download the 7-page microsoft word document I attached on the previous page. Maybe I should state it a little more strongly this time: IT IS A MUST READ!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,479
  • Feb 20, 2011 12:09am Feb 20, 2011 12:09am
8 hour heavy buying GU

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu151.png Size: 225 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #13,480
  • Edited 12:54am Feb 20, 2011 12:32am | Edited 12:54am
Quoting forexcompoun
I still advise that ALL traders on this thread download the 7-page microsoft word document I attached on the previous page. Maybe I should state it a little more strongly this time: IT IS A MUST READ!
speaking of Weighted moving Average ..200? ok thats sits at 1.71xx on my weekly chart.

Daily is highly Bullish...Only 4 hr is sort of overbought but some days worth of range should take care of it!!

Did you ever study candle sticks?

and your risk to reward....You must be on Mini / Micro lot..

I have no more to say.......

By the way 1.58xx is resistence and Up target once 1.63xx gets taken out is 1.69xx with minor stop at 1.66xx.

As for now it does not look Bearish..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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