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vsa with Malcolm

  • #13,401
  • Edited 3:56am Feb 19, 2011 12:48am | Edited 3:56am
Quoting pres78
Since the week is drawing quickly to a close I was listening to the radio while trading and I heard that song by BOB and Rivers Cuomo called Magic and it got me thinking about this thread over the last few days so I downloaded the lyrics and personalized it for Malc and Magix...

Have a great weekend all...


Oh man, you are good.
  • #13,402
  • Feb 19, 2011 1:46am Feb 19, 2011 1:46am
all you have to invest is time. the markets will be there forever, since it is the main tool of the powers that be.

assuming you "just" do a conservative 4% average a week, which we know is possible, you would have a nice sum of money after one year, beginning with 5k. one week is 10%, another is -2%, so this is a fair sum. with the moves we have in the markets these days it isn'T seldom that i had 10/20% days by sticking to initial risk and adding on the journey. so it is fair to chose 4%/week for this calculation.

the most important part is capital preservation, the "i am so sure here, now i heavily increase leverage" trades can kill weeks of work.

see this easy calculation, assuming 4% a week compounding over one year.

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/237...0219084225.png

after two years you are theoretically at 284k, starting with 5k.

there is absolutely no get-rich-quick in the markets, but there have to be enough to think that to provide fresh liquidity

Quoting pres78
I would love to think that I may get there some day... seems so far away based on account size and the fact that I can only trade part time... but here's to hoping.
  • #13,403
  • Feb 19, 2011 3:54am Feb 19, 2011 3:54am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
see this easy calculation, assuming 4% a week compounding over one year.

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/237...0219084225.png

after two years you are theoretically at 284k, starting with 5k.
It looks so easy in excel . The main problem I had first (still happens sometimes) is that one trade wipes all gains away I made within my trading week.
  • #13,404
  • Feb 19, 2011 4:42am Feb 19, 2011 4:42am
the only thing preventing you from becoming successful once you grasped (in our case vsa) are your bad habits, so to speak yourself. the first step is to identify them and get rid asap. this always is the main problem, i promise to you. trading is 80% psychology, if not even more.

just make easy 4% a week and then sit on your hands. you will be amazed.

simple procedure to begin account building. never risk more than 1% a trade. take half of your position off after 1,5x stop size, set the rest to be. the procedure of money management has to be strictly mechanical.

Quoting 1pipperhour
It looks so easy in excel . The main problem I had first (still happens sometimes) is that one trade wipes all gains away I made within my trading week.
  • #13,405
  • Feb 19, 2011 4:58am Feb 19, 2011 4:58am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the only thing preventing you from becoming successful once you grasped (in our case vsa) are your bad habits, so to speak yourself. the first step is to identify them and get rid asap. this always is the main problem, i promise to you. trading is 80% psychology, if not even more.

just make easy 4% a week and then sit on your hands. you will be amazed.

simple procedure to begin account building. never risk more than 1% a trade. take half of your position off after 1,5x stop size, set the rest to be. the procedure of money management has to be...
That's what I'm trying to do, Dr. Still too much emotion while trading.
What's your anticipation on Monday, Dr? Since monday is holiday in US, and of course options expiration.
  • #13,406
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:13am Feb 19, 2011 5:13am
Quoting 1pipperhour
It looks so easy in excel . The main problem I had first (still happens sometimes) is that one trade wipes all gains away I made within my trading week.
i had similar this week. by some miracle managed to make 110 pips on gu long on monday, very very rare i ever get that much, lucky if i make 40. then spent the rest of the week losing it and ended up right back where i started. now if next trade monday is a loser im negative over 2 weeks after being 110 pips up.

my luck is so bad, since second week of jan, ive had runs of 10 losers in a row where the trade never got more than 5 pips past the spread. starting to think i should just have 100 pip sl, cos i think most of those would have been ok (although perhaps this is just coincidence since its been ranging since then), problem is 100 pip sl means having to make 100 pips back just to get back where you started, and thats a long way back when you struggle to get 30's and 40's even.
  • #13,407
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:16am Feb 19, 2011 5:16am
we nicely broke the upper tl of the well respected upchannel which we trade in since monday. on the weekly we can clearly see another very strong bar, clearing all the closes, therefore price levels, of the previous four weeks at once.

i think we could see a retest of 3650/30 on monday which would be a 50% retrace of fridays wide range. this would be my desired spot to watch for buy entries.

since we have thin liquidity in the us session they could use it to do another ramp job torwards 3800.

i have a theory (but no crystal ball
monday gap down in the 3650 area followed by rallying. the gap is the easiest way to clear remaining supply by triggering stops.

until now, as long as we remain above 3650 there are NO short trades on my table.

Quoting duyk20
That's what I'm trying to do, Dr. Still too much emotion while trading.
What's your anticipation on Monday, Dr? Since monday is holiday in US, and of course options expiration.
  • #13,408
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:18am Feb 19, 2011 5:18am
i bet if you place your entry where you place your SL, you had a way better performance. this indicates a timing issue. try it, i think you will be amazed

Quoting ewokuk
i had similar this week....
  • #13,409
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:18am Feb 19, 2011 5:18am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
just make easy 4% a week and then sit on your hands. you will be amazed.
I'm just reading Larry Levin's e-book about trading psychology. He suggests the same thing: if you reach your daily, weekly or whatever profit target then next thing you should do is paper trading to become more confident on your trades you take.
  • #13,410
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:29am Feb 19, 2011 5:29am
Hello everybody

Dr G please tell me how you did figure out that yesterday ww had that trap ..on eurusd...(i sent charts in 13334# post)
There was stoping volume and valid test as my self...total noob could see...Also TG gave me same alert..also that area was an 50% and an high volume area from last day...so 99% place for reversal...but we fall down more 40 pips

I can see that it happens more often

Thanks
Work smart not hard
  • #13,411
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:42am Feb 19, 2011 5:42am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i bet if you place your entry where you place your SL, you had a way better performance. this indicates a timing issue. try it, i think you will be amazed
oh i definitely have a timing issue. in the past i often looked at an hourly, decided i would like it to go down to a certain spot for a buy, saw it start to go up instead and decided it might not go down there so bought so i didnt miss it....only to watch it spend the next few hours go right to where i wanted it. Then of course by the time it gets back to my entry, ive been negative so just relieved not to have a loss anymore, and have no intention of letting it go negative again, and so end up closing it at BE or with only a few pips because i put SL in and due to the bad location it eventually takes me out with a dip or a spike. Like now id be looking at 3645-50 but knowing my luck itll go above 3700 first, ill end up taking it with 3800 target only to watch it go towards 3650 and stop me out on the way.

but really my issue is far too many trades never even get 10 pips in profit, they go the other way as soon as i open it even though im not taking it into a s/r level . even when i do try to take a trade on s/r like i did on london open friday when i had longs on eu and gu which both fell through pivots/fibs/yesterdays high to take me out before they went up!

probly doesnt help that my trading from london open to london close is restricted to using a 10" netbook and having to have a quick look every now and then because im at work. only time i can trade properly is after i get home after london close, by then its gone quiet and theres probably no trades left that are worth anything.
  • #13,412
  • Feb 19, 2011 5:53am Feb 19, 2011 5:53am
a good chunk of gut feeling and experience by having seen such things over and over again.

we have seen a vol surge for the first time, near 3572 which was yesterdays poc. the following bars did not suggest any strength, so to me this rapid markup straight into the 10m 20sma had no base to shoot off that rapid, so it must have been markup to sell off. the two upbars i marked with the yellow arrows are also weak. the 20sma is a very powerful tool, as you can see on the screenshot. it works pretty good as supply/demand line for trailing stops.

the second rapid upmove had much more substantial since we had more base building and forming of a cause behind us, with testing, shakeouts, no supplys.

as is often mention, the first sifgnifcant vol surge most of the time is just an inital attempt to stop a move, it is followed by the final climax lower if we talk about long setups.

the climax than occured straight below yesterdays value area low of 3560 which indicates bargain hunting if there is strength below that area.

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/845...0218135010.png

Quoting sony
Hello everybody

Dr G please tell me how you did figure out that yesterday ww had that trap ..on eurusd...(i sent charts in 13334# post)
There was stoping volume and valid test as my self...total noob could see...Also TG gave me same alert..also that area was an 50% and an high volume area from last day...so 99% place for reversal...but we fall down more 40 pips

I can see that it happens more often

Thanks
  • #13,413
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:04am Feb 19, 2011 6:04am
Quoting ewokuk
probly doesnt help that my trading from london open to london close is restricted to using a 10" netbook and having to have a quick look every now and then because im at work. only time i can trade properly is after i get home after london close, by then its gone quiet and theres probably no trades left that are worth anything.
Im by no means an expert, but Im in the same boat as you are. Have you thought about going to a longer time frame?

VSA still works quiete well for on longer time frames, I use weekly, daily and 4h. Yes Malc protests against the 4h but they do sometimes tip the hat for a price movement for a few days to come.

A couple of things worth mentioning is that I have found with longer time frames you need to be on your game for S/R and or fibbs, well thats the way I trade anyways I use them for SLs and such. And that you may have 2 or 3 days where your account is making any progress.

GL its only takes time, practice, patience and a decent thread. LOL
  • #13,414
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:12am Feb 19, 2011 6:12am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
all you have to invest is time. the markets will be there forever, since it is the main tool of the powers that be.

assuming you "just" do a conservative 4% average a week, which we know is possible, you would have a nice sum of money after one year, beginning with 5k. one week is 10%, another is -2%, so this is a fair sum. with the moves we have in the markets these days it isn'T seldom that i had 10/20% days by sticking to initial risk and adding on the journey. so it is fair to chose 4%/week for this calculation.

the most important part is...
Pretty much exactly what i'm doing, started with 5k but my risk/win is 3%. Going ok so far, in the green anyway. Most of my losing trades have been getting in too soon or getting out too soon only to see it go the initial way I thought. Just a case of honing my experience with VSA. Happy so far though.
  • #13,415
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:13am Feb 19, 2011 6:13am
Quoting SimpleDev
Im by no means an expert, but Im in the same boat as you are. Have you thought about going to a longer time frame?

VSA still works quiete well for on longer time frames, I use weekly, daily and 4h. Yes Malc protests against the 4h but they do sometimes tip the hat for a price movement for a few days to come
thats exactly what i tried at the start of the year, moving to 1h charts mostly, and checking 4h sometimes. hasnt worked with all this ranging bs so ive gone back to 5 and 15. plus i find vsa in fx at least doesnt work for me above about 15min. probably because of the way the sessions and news releases work theres high vol low vol all over the place and i find it far more difficult to get anything meaningful out of it. not that im any good at 5 and 15min either but at least i can see more of whats going on, and earlier than waiting for hourly bars to happen.
  • #13,416
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:15am Feb 19, 2011 6:15am
Quoting juhanimi
Yes, I was thinking that 1.3710-20 should be tested with ND`s that this would be change of a trend and they have SL in 1.3705. Like in worst place.
We will see.
Now we are there with ND. It is actually HARD SHYT-level. BUT both those other HARD SHYT-levels has been succesfully tested, so really dont know now, we are like in the middle now.
Comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #13,417
  • Edited 6:31am Feb 19, 2011 6:16am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
a good chunk of gut feeling and experience by having seen such things over and over again.

we have seen a vol surge for the first time, near 3572 which was yesterdays poc. the following bars did not suggest any strength, so to me this rapid markup straight into the 10m 20sma had no base to shoot off that rapid, so it must have been markup to sell off. the two upbars i marked with the yellow arrows are also weak. the 20sma is a very powerful tool, as you can see on the screenshot. it works pretty good as supply/demand line for trailing stops....
Thanks Dr G...Got the point

For me only those 2 weak bars could make some asume that this is not so much of strenght but that same thing moved to smaller TF would make me to "pick up the soap"..lol

Yes that 20 sma works grate...

Good place for tests and SL also maybe good for waiting price to go above or bellow for longs and short...some kind of more conformation




-
Work smart not hard
  • #13,418
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:18am Feb 19, 2011 6:18am
Quoting ewokuk
thats exactly what i tried at the start of the year, moving to 1h charts mostly, and checking 4h sometimes....
For me I like to see the volume come in on the hourly chart with the next bar up/down confirming strength/weakness and then i move to 20min for my entry. Maybe give something like that a go? Guess it boils down to finding what works for you.
  • #13,419
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:23am Feb 19, 2011 6:23am
Quoting ewokuk
thats exactly what i tried at the start of the year, moving to 1h charts mostly, and checking 4h sometimes. hasnt worked with all this ranging bs. plus i find vsa in fx at least doesnt work for me above about 15min. probably because of the way the sessions and news releases work theres high vol low vol all over the place and i find it far more difficult to get anything meaningful out of it. not that im any good at 5 and 15min either but at least i can see more of whats going on, and earlier than waiting for hourly bars to happen.

I learned this the hard way.. haha long term means you sit on the side lines during acc/dist phases.

We were in an accumulation phase from 11/29 to 1/16ish (from my perspective anyways). Think of it this way, if your a short term trader trading 5 to 15 min time frames. Once you have completed your trade successfully you dont jump right back in on the other side right? You wait for confirmation of the next trend.

Long term is the same way, you have to wait for confirmation of the larger trend, and in my eyes acc/dist is my confirmation of the next trend but I have to wait for it to complete.

Anyways that is how I look at it. I hope it can be of some help.
  • #13,420
  • Feb 19, 2011 6:24am Feb 19, 2011 6:24am
Here with Pitchfork.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 23 KB
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