Technical Analysis Fallacy

Snowboarding - cool. Have not done that for years.
Hope your bones are still in the intended configuration

Regarding all the other TAFies:
DutchAngel shows up from time to time. I think she is doing great.
Mahes is still following fti'S teachings and shows up every now and then.
Lusan has left, cause he has found a new job in chemistry research area.

Fti ist still around but has some very serious troubles with his health. I'm not that good in Crystal balling, but the trend seems to go in positive direction again. At least we all hope and pray for him.

Basically, all serious followers are still around and stepping in from time to time to share their wisdom and experiences. So all in all a nice growing community...

Cu,
Niels

Fine people here:-)

Just for info:

NEW YORK, Feb 16 (IFR) - DJ reports on Israel saying that Iran is sending two warships to Mediterranean. This may be a response to earlier inflammatory Hezbollah comments. Nothing from US administration at moment. Oil up. [email protected]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Careful Friends!

Two competing events:
1. FOMC later this trading day.
2. Some trouble with Iran sending war ships ...

We have to be very very nimble now ....

I didn't expect so much action before fomc today. It started bad for me today but eventually I got out +5 pips for the day by fading the stop sweep below E/u 1.3475. I'm done for the day, only little long scout left.

This up move started before the London close I wonder what why traders covered their shorts in the most inconvenient time of the trading session.

MaMood, shouldn't any military moves and war implications lead to dollar bulls? Or am I mistaken?

Regards, MyTbo

It appears that the Dollar weakness was caused by SNB intervention... Tearing on the Eur/Chf...

Be EXTREMELY nimble goin into the FMOC...

Hi guys, I saw the market action a little differently than the posts above. The early news on GBP inflation was the cause of the GBP/$ fall, and I assumed the subsquent move in the euro was more a response to that news than anything else. The move up was, imo, a reaction to the Dow push up (higher equity = lower dollar). The rest was follow through. Not sure but what the heck, this is another view of the world. Good trading everyone!

I agree with GEfx pretty much (wasn't watching the dow so I just saw the up move in GBP as an ordinary correction after the down move had gone too far)

I can't see how an SNB intervention would lead to dollar weakness across the board, since they would be buying dollars no?

Just for info: The FED Minutes ...

By Luca Di Leo and Jeff Bater Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve officials were slightly more optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook when they last met three weeks ago, but not enough to call an early end to their $600 billion bond-buying program.
Minutes of the Fed's policy-setting meeting Jan. 25-26, released with the customary lag Wednesday, showed central bank officials expect U.S. gross domestic product to increase between 3.4% and 3.9% this year. That compares with a November 2010 prediction the economy would expand between 3.0% and 3.6% in 2011.
Though the economy looks a bit stronger, central bank officials expect the unemployment rate to remain at a high level between 8.8% and 9.0% at the end of 2011, even after January's decline to 9.0%. Despite the recent surge in food and energy prices, inflation is seen between 1.3% and 1.7%, in line with the November projections and where the Fed wants prices to be.
With inflation seen staying low and unemployment high, Fed officials decided to keep in place their easy-money policies, including buying government bonds, at their first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2011. The bond purchases -- which began after the recovery stumbled in the middle of last year and are due to end in June -- are aimed at boosting the economy by keeping interest rates low and lifting stocks.
Though officials voted unanimously to keep buying bonds, some in the FOMC -- currently 11 members because of a vacancy on the Fed board in Washington -- have spoken out against the policy, warning it could lead to an outbreak of inflation.
The minutes showed a minority within the Fed remain unsure about how much the bond purchases are helping the economy and believe the stimulus should be reconsidered if data continues to point to a sufficiently strong economy.
"However, others pointed out that it was unlikely that the outlook would change by enough to substantiate any adjustments to the program before its completion," the minutes said.
A strengthening U.S. economy amid rising international prices for food and energy led the Fed's inflation hawks to stir this month. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and an FOMC voter, said he can live with the program until June but would firmly oppose expanding it.
FOMC members "emphasized" the central bank would continue to regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and would adjust the bond program as needed to foster maximum employment and price stability, the minutes showed.
Fed officials three weeks ago projected consumer prices will stay below 2.0% in 2012, even though the GDP should rise by around 4.0%. But more recent data points to a clear upward trend in prices.
U.S. wholesale prices increased across the board in January, data showed Wednesday. Underlying producer prices, which are considered a better inflation gauge by the Fed because they are net of volatile energy and food items, climbed a monthly 0.5% -- the biggest gain in more than two years and double what Wall Street economists expected.
Until recently, the U.S. central bank has been focusing on how to ease monetary policy more given the persistent weakness in the economy. With the economy growing more briskly and inflation turning up, especially overseas, the discussion is expected to turn to when -- and how -- to take the foot off the gas.
At the FOMC meeting, officials also reaffirmed several Fed practices related to foreign exchange markets.
-By Luca Di Leo, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6682; [email protected] Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?...2KTxgTMw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

Disclaimer: Be aware of possibel Cow Dung included ;-)

Wow, GDP growth at about 3%, which is less than 1/2 what you'd expect for the US coming out of a deep recession. And, the only way unemployment stays at about 9% is if you don't count the other 8% up in the U6 number. A weak and deceptive picture being presented by our government. As a US talk radio host stated recently, we may have to go Egypt on them -- LOL.

Hey MaMood, I hope you are doing well and have put that nasty experience behind you. You are too good a trader to let it get you down, my friend. Trade well.

may be they r showing weakness just to attack.my experience is when ever prices hover below round number in eu they usually break it later toningt and start playing above 3615 by morning. i am long now at 1.3569 about 64000 units

Good Morning GE,

thanx for your encouraging words.
Yeah - I'm back in the driver's seat.

Trading yesterday was somehow like getting freed. I could take everything the market was offering to me and was not "forced" to stop with 0.3% ...

Yeah - I love trading the fti style


CU,
Niels

just wondering where's everyone gone???

EU scout deployed long @ 3570

waiting for GBP figs

Hope you're still hanging on to those longs, rocket-man.

That's action.
Big heads are talking on G20 meeting in Paris ....


.

Or this one:

1319 GMT [Dow Jones] The euro hits the day's high against the dollar at 1.3641 after traders say the European Central Bank is buying Portuguese government bonds in the secondary market. The single currency surges higher against the dollar on the talk and comes off the day's lows it hit at 1.3544 after the People's Bank of China raised its bank reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. EUR/USD currently at 1.3633. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

When your job is to report the news, you'd better report something when things pop to justify a paycheck.

Hi Auxesis,
hope you have not been caugth on the wrong side ....

Niels

p.s.: Posting some news gives me the imagination to be close to the market and finally strengthens my mindset. Sorry if it disturbs you ...

Niels,

I was short earlier but exited in the coil just before the fireworks, unfortunately I'm a spectator on this ride north.

j

ROLF! Doesn't bother me at all, please post!!!!

I sometimes have to laugh at the commentators, at times it seems they pull stuff out their backsides in an attempt to look knowledgeable about what's going on.

Reports of someone buying at X.XXX that's news, but who knows really why.

just my thoughts