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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,021
  • Edited 10:53am Feb 15, 2011 5:42am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting imjscn
Hello Vice,
Last time heard from him he was recovering at his mother's home, didn't get update from him since then.
By the way, there's no message from his friends. That mean no bad news.
Really glad to hear that. I hope and pray that he recovers as soon as possible.
  • #23,022
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:20am Feb 15, 2011 10:20am
Quoting imjscn
Hello Vice,
Last time heard from him he was recovering at his mother's home, didn't get update from him since then.
By the way, there's no message from his friends. That mean no bad news.

Thanks for update...really appreciated


V
  • #23,023
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:04am Feb 16, 2011 12:04am
Quoting dannbb
[...]
2)and proof profitability for some time with it.
How long is some time? how to know when you are ready?
apart from the 500 pips saga which i had lose a total of 68 USD at the end of it.
I had manage average 10% every month for the last 7 months
but i still feel i am not ready yet.. some say 3 month.. some say 6 months.. [...]
Hi dannbb,

that is a really good question and from my experience there is no absolute answer to it with the meaning of months or years. It depends only on you.

You will never know that you are "ready" finally. The only certainty you will get is something like "feeling confortable" with the sizes and the risk you are taking actually.

Regardless how well trained you are, you will never know, when (or if ever) you will meet a warrior, who is superior to you. So the only discovery and experience you make is, that you are feeling well with certain terrains and tactics on the battlefield.

As a result your trading will grow with your personal development. But you have to develop your "instinct" for spotting situations, when to retreat and avoid a battle with a stronger opponent ...

Best regards,
Niels
  • #23,024
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:44am Feb 16, 2011 12:44am
Quoting MaMood
Hi dannbb,

Regardless how well trained you are, you will never know, when (or if ever) you will meet a warrior, who is superior to you. So the only discovery and experience you make is, that you are feeling well with certain terrains and tactics on the battlefield.

As a result your trading will grow with your personal development. But you have to develop your "instinct" for spotting situations, when to retreat and avoid a battle with a stronger opponent ...

Best regards,
Niels
Thanks for the advice,Glad that you are back in action..
  • #23,025
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:52am Feb 16, 2011 12:52am
Morning Friends!

EU: Stop hunting? Or any other driver?
  • #23,026
  • Feb 16, 2011 1:20am Feb 16, 2011 1:20am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks guys. Some helpful advice...but out of interest does anyone actually know why I would want to base my attack sequences on Fibonacci numbers rather than any other sequence, such as 1-2-3-4-5 for example?

Cheers.
Hi Mark,

I'm a man who loves simple but working approaches to everything in life. So I do not belive in anything magic about the fib skewing (Well - of course I see the elegance in this very special series expansion).

Basically I consider it as a very easy to remember series of numbers (we know the building rule...). And we need to get used to a non linear set of multipliers for our risk and position management, when trading. We do not have the time for doing complex calculations, when we have to react to markets actions. So we learn that numbers and we know them very well for the first 10 or 15 elements.

Not using a linear approach has it's basics in rescueing I think. We want to bring the average prices very agressively in reach of recent PA.

Well - I know I might get stoned to death () by many others here, but the fact that we are skipping some levels of the fib levels according to market momentum etc, we can see any series of numbers as follows:

Fib series is just a linear series of numbers with some levels skipped :

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 .....
1 1 2 3 (4) 5 (6 7) 8 (9 10 11 12) 13 ....
(x): skipped number

But seriously again:


We can use any row of numbers, as long as:

  1. we are very well trained to it and know/feel/remember the consequences on average price, snowballing, "pips to death", margin call etc. very very well.
  2. it is not linear (recommendation only)

The main point probably is: We have to be very familiar with the used set of numbers ...

Cu,

Niels

  • #23,027
  • Feb 16, 2011 1:32am Feb 16, 2011 1:32am
Quoting MaMood
Morning Friends!

EU: Stop hunting? Or any other driver?


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  • #23,028
  • Feb 16, 2011 1:33am Feb 16, 2011 1:33am
I agree with Mamood. Since the market is continuously changing, we cannot expect historical returns to reflect future performance. We are only as good as our last trade.

I think fti mentions that we should not be focused too much on returns. In my opinion, focusing on consistent returns is dangerous because:
-it makes people cocky in attacks/recoveries
-makes people take on unnecessary risk to recover a loss
-makes people focus on consistent returns when instead we should be focusing to taking what is given to us (breeds greed, over-trading, ect)

I think AOW summarized Mamood's opinion well (you are ready when you start to feel more comfortable and know your terrain/responses):

" if you know yourself and you know your enemy, you need not fear the outcome of 100 battles"

However, its important that you stay vigilant about spotting and killing the scorpions of fear, greed, boredom ect. No matter how many years we've traded, certain things can and will happen.

Quoting MaMood
Hi dannbb,

that is a really good question and from my experience there is no absolute answer to it with the meaning of months or years. It depends only on you.

You will never know that you are "ready" finally. The only certainty you will get is something like "feeling confortable" with the sizes and the risk you are taking actually.

Regardless how well trained you are, you will never know, when (or if ever) you will meet a warrior, who is superior to you. So the only discovery and experience you make is, that you are feeling well...
  • #23,029
  • Feb 16, 2011 1:45am Feb 16, 2011 1:45am
Hi niels,
can we dance on the long side

EU scout 3541 mine

regards
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,030
  • Feb 16, 2011 1:48am Feb 16, 2011 1:48am
Quoting dongsky
Hi niels,
can we dance on the long side

EU scout 3541 mine

regards

Not too sure about long.
But we can try a tango, with some quick "promenades" in both directions
  • #23,031
  • Feb 16, 2011 1:52am Feb 16, 2011 1:52am
Quoting MaMood
Not too sure about long.
But we can try a tango, with some quick "promenades" in both directions
then let's do a quick twist and shake the tree been doing it since last night... be nimble!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,032
  • Edited 2:30am Feb 16, 2011 1:57am | Edited 2:30am
EU L2 3542 bot
AU L2 9973 bot

edit:
EU L3 3545 bot

edit: here they come (bulls!)
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,033
  • Feb 16, 2011 2:23am Feb 16, 2011 2:23am
scaling down EU... L2&L3 home... 3565

AU squared ... 1.0000


nimble!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,034
  • Feb 16, 2011 2:26am Feb 16, 2011 2:26am
waiting for a clean upside breakout at 3570 level... preparing for attack

this might be ranging now... we'll see...

i'm so tempted to flip... but nah! will wait instead

edit: probably at 50% fib level another long opportunity... i'll wait for confirmation this time...
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,035
  • Feb 16, 2011 2:39am Feb 16, 2011 2:39am
squared... i'm flat at the moment... waiting for news release.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,036
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:29am Feb 16, 2011 4:29am
quick hello into the round!

Hope all are doing fine, classroom has changed much.

Regards
  • #23,037
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:39am Feb 16, 2011 4:39am
Wow - a cool drop created by Mr. King.

.
Attached Image
  • #23,038
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:40am Feb 16, 2011 4:40am
Quoting islandorange
quick hello into the round!

Hope all are doing fine, classroom has changed much.

Regards

Hi,

long long time no see.
How are you doing?

Niels
  • #23,039
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:47am Feb 16, 2011 4:47am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

long long time no see.
How are you doing?

Niels
Personally i'm fine, have moved back to Germany, now living in Berlin. Was last week on vacation i believe you live in bavaria right? Was in Erpfendorf, Austria near Reith im Winkl with my family, have tested my ability to ride snowboard.

I was often here have often re read the thread, but i'm on my search for a new broker, have openend a thread especially for this topic.

Business side is still fine, trading i think i'm a bit rusty, but i'm here also to grind my swords, still testing markets, but like everything in live, once you have learned something the basics will be still internalized.

Where is the rest of the crew, i.e. mahes, lusan, dutch, fti, and all other which i have forgotten... I believe many have made their fortune in rollercoaster markets :-)

regards

io
  • #23,040
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:53am Feb 16, 2011 4:53am
will be out for the rest of the day, have to go with my wife to buy some furniture.

cu
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