New member looking for a little advice and handholding

Hmmm...that sounds reasonable. I'll give that a try as well during the next couple of weeks. Thank you!

Here is an example of a 30 min trend on the EURGBP pair, another nice trend. This can be traded on the 30 min TF as the setup and then zoom in to say the 5 min TF to place the entry and SL. So really you can trade any TF. The 30 min is lowest TF I will trade but this is a good example of the smaller TF trends if you want more action than you get from the longer term charts.

--NM

p.s. ooops forgot the chart

Hello again bug,

Do you ever use trendlines in your analysis? They can be used on any timeframe.

Regards,

Dan

Do you mean computer generated R&S? I'm a bit confused as to what you have in mind..

No, just standard run of the mill trendlines. Drawn by hand.

Like this?
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/5232/example4.th.gif

That's it!

Bug,

Here is how I do it and I am sure DanUK does it about the same way as far as looking for S/R levels he is a pretty good trader from what I have seen, I am sure all trend traders follow similar rules and methods. But for the intraday trading target methods I use the ADR (Average Daly range) but if you hold the positions longer than the ADR is not needed.

--NM

Hi NM & bug,

Just to add my "confluence" of thoughts - yes that is similar to what I do! I tend to hold positions for several days though.

Regards,

Dan

PS... Thanks for the compliment NM!

Hi guys,
I haven't been able to put your advice to action yet, because I'm having exams at uni, but looks like my previous trendlines on the AU chart were pretty close to what you would call accurate technical analysis. I'm sitting in right now with a short position from .9220 (from Friday). I'm looking at some further downside.
http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/3381/example5.th.gif

Hi guys, I just wanted to give you an update.
I've been using some of the tips you gave me and so far this week, it has all worked out very nice. I've also learned a lot about money management from some of the posts of a few old timers. I am also paying way more attention to PA than I used to and it has given me more confidence. My target for this week has been hit many times over, but we'll see how the next months turn out. Aint nothing worse than celebrating the first battle victory of the war.

A special thanks to everyone that helped me help myself! May you have many pips in the future!

bug

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=248952

Thats some things ive written about trends, and i hold those views quite accurately still. But i can perhaps add to that:

Take any timeframe, add any amount of moving averages, doesnt matter if they are smoothed, exponential or otherwise.

Every one of them can be said to represent a trend, no matter how many you chose. That means there is an infinte amount of trends. There is no point in trying to define a trend on its own, you cant follow a trend, its not really there in any other sense then a line you draw on a paper is a trend. A trend is mostly something that someone imagine, some people imagine some things, others imagine other things. If enough people imagine the same thing, it sort of becomes real. So if you still want to follow a trend, do like most people do. Now the tricky thing is to now when they will stop following the trend.

I therefore dont incorporate "trend" into how i think. I dont mind if other people do, i have better things to do then to try to convince somebody of something.

Generally i think the idea of "trend" is what makes people throw away their money at the markets, they imagine they know what it is and how to follow it. And thats part of why less then half the people on FF make profits.

So if you want to follow the "trend", its very easy to make money, and very easy to loose it!

Do this on demo: Open a M5 chart of any pair, add MA 21, MA 34, MA 55 for an example. When all MAs are above price, sell, when all MAs are below price, buy.

Dont like it? Want slower action? Take a M30 chart of any pair, add MA 13, MA 40 and MA 66. Do same thing, when MAs are above price, sell, when MAs are below price, buy.

Want really fast system? Take MA 19, and MA 34 and add to M1 chart on any pair, sell when price below MAs and buy above.

A trading system trying to go with a "trend" is actually that simple, 99% of them are. You can make your own system in two minutes, just take a chart, add any MAs and do the same. Some of these "systems" have a hwole host of indicators, but its 99% chance they will only confuse you, what it all gets down to is this exact same thing i just told you.

So my first advice is: Abandon the idea of trends, start with an open, focused and critical mind and ignore all systems, since 99% of them are total crap, they arent systems at all but rather confused people writing about their own confusion.

My second advice is: A focused and critical mind, open to completely new ideas and ready to abandon all preconceptions can make use of mathematical operations such as indicators, or try to get "a feel" for prices. I walk the first path mostly, some others are succesfull in walking the second path. We all also walk both paths, without choosing.

Anyway i hope you experience inner peace, the rest is superflous and momentary

there is only ONE TREND

interesting, can you please clarify?

Cause I always thought that trends depend on how far you go back in time.

Let's say we have a super-cycle that goes up and down every 100 years and within that are decade long cycles and within that then yearly cycles and so on.
So what is the trend then? the super cycle / trend? or is it the yearly? or the 5 min?

What if in the very very long-term we are up, let's the last 100 years. And what if the last 10 years have been down? Are we now in an uptrend or downtrend?

Would love to hear your explanation.

No trends or cycles,
only reactions to chart actions I find.