Silent Service Method

No doubt. Is it time to charge all my purchases again? When it comes times to pay, I can always open another card and transfer the balance!

I have to admit - I have never seen that. Great post.

The idea of democracy is fine. What I was referring to there is the fact that this will end bad. All things in the Middle East do. The most organized people in the Middle East are always assholes. In this case, the Muslim Brotherhood is one. I know, I know....the media keeps saying "But they haven't killed anyone in years." Uh....ok. They are a huge reason this situation happened in the first place. Who does everything think killed Sadat, which led to Mubarek?

This is going to sound brash, but that's what I do best: As far as giving out "aid" (another form of welfare), let them starve. If they weren't receiving welfare, they would actually do something to fix the issues. (In this case, the governments of places like Egypt.) I find it retarded behavior at best for a broke country like the US to keep giving hand outs.

No, I don't think we selected bad government with Obama, we selected inexperience, and it shows.

Let's not confuse the foreigners with the electoral college debate. If it were up to me, we'd have cage matches on pay-per-view. (This past election would have turned out the same I am pretty sure.)

You mean as opposed to a free government like Spain with a.....20% youth unemployment problem?

Markets hate uncertainty. That's all.

There are plenty of people that would have an issue with this statement. The Kurds would be one.


The truth is that we are entering a far more dangerous time in the Middle East in reference to the world, not the Egyptians. I agree - Mubarek should have gone a long time ago. I also agree that we shouldn't have been propping him up either. But it seems to me that bribes are one of the only things Third World governments tend to act favorably towards. Oh, and war. Which would be so much more efficient. I say we start with Spain. I'm still pissed about the World Cup final. (Even if my Dutch were playing like thugs and deserved the loss.)

Chris

I have a friend whom I consider to be smarter than average....and he's investing in real estate. Not because he expects it to rise in value, but because he wants the land itself and looks forward to paying back the loans with inflated dollars.

Yes, this Egypt situation looks like a nightmare. Do we want an evil billionaire dictator who lets his people starve and live in povery running Egypt? Hell no.

But is that better than another Iran, especially with as skiddish as Israel has been with amature hour trying to run the white house.

We haven't had a great president in a long, long time. Corrupt corporations with agendas, lobbiests with only their own interest at heart, and letting people who don't pay into the system have an equal say how the money is spent and how much is taken from those who do pay, will in the long run ensure our life styles suffer and great.

Reagan was an okay president. I personally think Bush I got a bad rep and did a fine job. Clinton was a mess who was saved by doing so badly in his first 2 years that his party lost power. But at least Clinton was decent enough/smart enough, to play ball with the other side his last 6 years and over all had some pretty good success. Bush II wasn't as bad as many would like to think, but at the same time was not a conservative and made some bad decisons. Obama so far has been terrible. Not sure how anyone with an IQ over 80 could be excited about the socialist plans he would love to install (though they will never go through with the outrage among the citizens of this country). If Obama follows Clinton's lead and moves to the middle and plays ball with the Republicans, I think he could end up doing a very good job and getting re-elected in a land slide.

To Chris:

With all due respect, I don't think either of us has a crystal ball. That said, I think I would agree with our founding fathers who believe men should have life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The Egyptian people under Mubarak had maybe 1 or 1.5 out of 3 (even that is debatable). It's not for us to decide how they govern themselves. So, of course it could end badly, but its their right as a free people to select their own government, even if its hostile to us or our interests. I guess I'm old-school like that -- I'm a Locke/Rouseau social contract kinda guy.

To UNLV:

I'll send you a PM to respond to your insightful analysis of our last 5 presidents and your ideas about "paying into the system".

OK, I'm off to look at some charts. Have a good weekend all.

I have busied myself this weekend with reading through the plethora of posts concerning the recent events in Egypt, and prior to this, Tunisia. The media coverage of Egypt is, well, its typical self in sensationalizing a lead story, with almost every journalist daring not to go against editorial remit, and thus cry that this is a real show of democracy in action and led by the people.

Hmm, obviously, I look at these events as a trader of currencies, and although somewhat cold in manner, I have to try and think of how one can profit from these events. Don’t anyone here reprimand me for this, as we are all doing the same.

So, what are my current thoughts? Well, why would the US and Europe call for him to leave, when but a week earlier, Obama’s lacky, opps, sorry, envoy to Cairo, Frank Wisner, whilst in Munich, was calling Mubarak indispensable to democratic tradition? One thinks that perhaps events were moving faster than the analysts' pens back in Washington could scribble. Oh, hang on, it is election year, and one doesn’t want discontent in the Middle East that sees peaceful protester Joe, sitting in front of the world’s media in Tahrir Square, dragged off by the authorities to endure hell in a secret cell. It’s not good to seem indifferent/ineffective against the terror experienced all over the Middle East. Obama steps in, the world report on his intervention and subsequent ability to uphold democracy against dictatorship – let us ignore the propping up of these regimes by the conventional West momentarily – and the whole of America sees Obama as the saviour of the little man. Hey, big O has to be seen to be effective in something, right?

So, okay, great, the world is free of one more dictator – there are others still in favour with world power, so it is a long road – but what will fill the vacuum in Egypt? Not two days in, and the country is run by a military junta, who in turn are negotiating with the Islamic Brotherhood. I make no comment upon faith, but today we have seen fights and shootings in the streets of Cairo.

Meanwhile, down the road in Algeria another uprising against a dictatorship is occurring. This becomes interesting, as Algeria is not without substantial reserves of oil, and also subject to prolonged political interference from Russia.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, Russia is being blamed for stoking the fires of revolution within the Middle East in order to scare the energy market into securing a ‘safer’ source. Now, are we seeing the conventional West attempting to reassure the market by quickly moving to placate any uprising within the Middle East, in order to stabilize energy prices, and avoid having to go to Russia's store for energy? Perhaps, but we have topped the psychological $100 a barrel tag, and I think most agree that the road north can now easily be driven. Saudi Arabia is being questioned on just how much reserves it has, and if it really can turn the tap on to keep the oil flowing faster, and hence cool the price. I guess it depends on whether the house of Saud want to buy another private A380 replete with air hostesses minus Abaya and a Boshiya, or not.

When I look at what is happening in Tunisia now, all I see is the UGTT organizing strikes that keep people busy. The UGTT were the main organization behind the toppling of Ben Ali, and state that there is still some toppling to go before they will be ‘satisfied’. Hmm, I think Saddam Hussein said something very similar after being helped to power by forces other than Joe on the street. Regardless, Ennahda – the Islamist opposition party - want a role in the new government being formed by Moncef Marzouki, who in turn have stated that what is needed now is ‘discipline’, and that an alliance with Ennahda will not be ruled out. Hmm, history would suggest that these arrangements never end well. Watch that space…

Anyone else get the feeling that oil is going to shoot through the roof, and that a lot of money will be made by some in supplying the weapons that will be needed on the streets of the Middle East? Mahmoud Amadinnejad – no stranger to Russia - seems happy enough though, shouting from his turret in Iran that the events in Egypt were ‘a great blow against American interference, and a true opportunity for our brothers there’. This must have come as a veiled public support for the Islamist leader Mohamed Ghanem, who, shortly after Mubharak headed off to Sharm el-Sheikh, told the Egytpian army to “gear up for war with Israel”.

No, I’m sorry media, but I am not getting a feeling of being all fuzzy with excitement that my fellow little man on the streets in the Middle East is now going to be granted democracy. Not that we have much of that anywhere when considering what a true democracy would be. My impression is that we are about to see another round of disguises of deceit, and that Joe will be back pushing his cart before long, with even less prospect as commodities rocket, and his new leaders tell him that he must make sacrifices for the new democracy that he helped to create. Animal farm, anyone?

Currency wise, I am expecting capital flight to a safe haven, and so if the USINDX pops above resistance, I am expecting Cable and EU to be making a trip south. I still favour Cable higher and EU lower in the mid to long term, but think that with recent events, some protectionism by big money will occur whilst the situation on the ground in the Middle East stabilizes, and those that power want in power, are accepted in their new positions.

EDIT: No charts, but looking for shorts on Cable below 1.6000 and below 1.3500 for EU.

Currency-wise, I was up and trading NY on Friday. It seemed very "indecisive". Normally I expect the big boys already have their bets in place when news comes across the wire (even unexpected news like when Dubai threatened to default on it bonds).

Friday was exceptionally non-committal.

I suspect they needed the weekend to sus-out an initial response, but as events unfold, all positions are subject to change without warning.

I don't really have any big-picture views on how all this might turn out, but I will be exercising caution, keeping any exposure small, and remaining nimble in my interpretations.

Agreed, a bitsa day if ever there's been one.

Watch the EURUSD Mon/Tues for either:

Direct retracement between 1.3580-1.3720 for a sell
OR
A probe below last week's lows to clear stops and then a small rally back to the 1.3650-1.3720 area before offering another shorting op.

Looks like 1.2980 is in the sights again.

Hope you all had a good weekend.

Cheers.

Hi,

I know it's an old post i am replying to, but i remembered that you were talking about a gold bubble.

I just found this article on the Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...P+Morgan+Chase

It's stating that JP Morgan is a beginning to accept gold as collateral for some transactions.

It's not much, but that's clearly another step in a gold-bubble era.

The Iranians selected their own government. They got to vote. Once.

That's what I am worried about. Only time will tell, and I agree - it's up to those people to decide. But the region doesn't exactly have a great track record.

The constant commercials for companies accepting gold......the gold dispensing ATMs, and now this.......

Someday.....there is going to be the ultimate short in gold. If you can't trade gold, you can just short the AUD when that day comes.

This post is absolutely brilliant. I would comment, but anything I add will only dilute its clarity. Well done.

Here is what I am looking at for the EURUSD...

Monthly - we are printing consistent Lower highs and Lower lows... My next major support for this pair, long term, is 1.2000

http://bgin2end.files.wordpress.com/...-eurusd-mn.jpg

Weekly - Major price action showing the inability for this pair to hold onto gains, thus signaling a major bear-bias in my thinking.

http://bgin2end.files.wordpress.com/...-eurusd-wk.jpg

4 Hour - Not my favorite time frame, but it does illustrate the once support @ 1.3500 possibly becoming resistance (in fact I just had an order hit exactly @ 1.3500 about an hour ago). As well as some other minor support...

http://bgin2end.files.wordpress.com/...-eurusd-4h.jpg

@begin2end

Technically, a falling wedge is a bullish pattern. Also showing bullish regular div on the monthly.

Not that I'm buying the Euro, just technical opinion.

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...02-14_1328.png

Indeed, thanks mate. In my opinion, the Div on the monthly that you mention has already been played out as seen by the advance and decline of the price. This is why I use 2 MACD, one for a shorter term and the other for a longer term look.

As for the Descending wedge, I agree with the bullish pattern, however I think it may need one more touch on the lower TL unless we can get a big push up.

With my analysis, I like to take all things into account, including any "opposing" patterns to my train of thought - keeps me honest

Always prudent.

One cannot be too surprised with the UK inflation figure published today – manipulated down, I believe – but still running at a rate that will mean that either interest rate hikes are on the cards, or inflation come the Summer may be ‘officially’ running into double digits. Gulp!

For those that read my scribbles, I do tend to pour over the ONS website:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp

The figures confirm one thing, for me, and that is that in the UK, we buy from abroad with a broken pound. With CPI, gaining 8% since the last period of analysis, now over 5%, we have less than half way to go to 10%. Boy, I wonder if people marvel at my mathematical genius…

And so Merv will be required to write yet another note to Ozzie down in the Exchequer, attempting to explain that, well, he is a little stuffed to explain how he will combat a slumping economy set against poor employment and inflation… stagflation – the real current situation for many. The cost of borrowing will go up, the deficit will follow; thus rising import costs further – I am thinking raw materials here.

And then we have Andrew Sentence on later in the week. I’ll bet Merv ducks behind his desk when this guy speaks, as he will, I assume, again call for a rise in interest rates, which judging by today’s jump on Cable, will see further gains for the pound. Today’s gains probably being made on speculative longs by those with more than a few yards to spare. Of course, this is not good for our exports, and so Merv will be stuck between a rock and a hard place. I’m not sure what the markets will do if Merv does nothing as Andy Pandy calls for more candy, but it would not surprise me to see big money try and force him out of his foxhole by pumping up Sterling.



The charts

I'm paying particular attention to the candle formations around the descending magenta TL. I am still of the opinion that Cable will break to the upside, with 1.64 region being a not too unreasonable expectation... should the current PA sort itself out - it's been a pain. A 1,2,3 play off the magenta TL would be nice.

The 50 FE appears to have performed the duty of being support. I have an older chart with some fibs etcetera that account for some of the pokes around this line.

To be truly cynical, one should not rule out that this inflation is deliberate, and that it allows governments and big money to rape the citizen from behind. A large proportion of government debts is Sterling denominated, thus assisting in inflating the debt away via the theft from the saver - be this in savings accounts, pensions, commodities etcetera.

Much better to have a little inflation than to raise interest rates; which will have a very public effect, and be very damaging to many who are standing on, for example, the property precipice.

Sounds like you are being Americanized! lol