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vsa with Malcolm

  • #12,181
  • Feb 12, 2011 8:34am Feb 12, 2011 8:34am
[quote=Dr.Geppynius;4393032]Daily spot indicates strength, less vol on second test, so futures traders positioned and eur futures got bought imho in anticipation of higher prices- higher vol on friday.

no better charts at my hands currently.




Couldn't it be traders selling(accumulating shorts) in anticipation of lower prices?
  • #12,182
  • Edited 10:52am Feb 12, 2011 10:34am | Edited 10:52am
I thought these two charts were interesting as they provide an example of a low or no buying pressure setup for a high probability short sell. I did not take this trade, but if I were a good speculator and had been Johnny on the Spot, I might have.

The bar chart shows the VSA setup in context of the Beijing open, a 30 hour down trend, and the 62% retrace back of an impulse Effort to Move Down. The candlestick chart shows the highlighted bars as a 3 Inside Down pattern. The higher probability and thus safer trade would have been to sell the close of the up bar that printed a half hour later that approached the 50% retrace back.

Candle stick patterns are not part of VSA and I apologize to anyone who may be confused by reference to them. VSA and Wyckoff analysis transcends all other technical approaches and thus should be the main focus of a business person's speculating business technical analysis studies.

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  • #12,183
  • Feb 12, 2011 11:02am Feb 12, 2011 11:02am
4 hour key level eu 1.3610 .... top of flag 1.3700

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #12,184
  • Feb 12, 2011 11:18am Feb 12, 2011 11:18am
Quoting Intel
LOL

I make it a rule to NEVER short after 3 mini upthrusts in a row. Price VERY often goes up next. I see this as a SM tactic.
Appreciate & great to have everyone's perspective/strategy on this ... anything can of course happen.

Short-term, if euro were to head-up, we'd be looking at a USDX reversal of the recent TL bounce ... chart was posted a few pages ago I believe - it's not always convincing at it's trend reversal positions, so some ranging for everything may well still be in order.

Mid-term, long-term, am thinking for euro to head up, we may need to see that USDX break the fully respected UTL - which will happen at some point one has to figure, but we're we're currently being treated to USA 'recovery' & a strengthening of the USD, but I believe 2011 will underline further USD losses. Tricky though to tie in gold distribution/topping, potential 1350 S&P topping - can't believe everything there (& $USD) will go more-or-less the same until POMO June plan expiry.

I was hoping this chart would clarify a bit, but problem of course is, everything is in uncharted territory, and this is when correlations fail & change! Is this the year of the euro? Down with the USD$? We'll see, won't we!
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  • #12,185
  • Feb 12, 2011 12:39pm Feb 12, 2011 12:39pm
...absolutely, instruments and indices at points all over the place, which make for almost shot-in-the-dark aims at correlation.

As for currency strengths for the year, here in France, we English are watching the French stock up on wood and flour like never before. Hmm, have they heard something that would suggest come Summer, that which they have in their pocket at present will be good for nothing more than providing a firestarter for the Godin and baking?
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #12,186
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:18pm Feb 12, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting rbumbalough
.............(edit: No Selling Pressure is described in the Tradeguider Indicators Guide as

"1. No selling pressure
This can appear as a failed test. A failed test looks like an ordinary test but the volume is too high. Markets do no like high volume when the spreads are wide. The high volume shows supply. The question is are the marketmakers willing to absorb the supply.

Supplementary Comments:
The following bars should tell you: Low volume up-bars: The market is not going up very far right now, and will want to test the high volume area.
Up-Thrusts:...
This description of 'No selling pressure' is a little missleading. A test which fails because the volume is too high is.....a 'Failed test'. What Tom is getting at is the first half of a failed test. That would be a 'no selling pressure' bar. The second half is a 'buying pressure' bar. If you merge these 2 bars together, you get a failed test on high volume.

The MAKE UP of a failed test on high volume, is why it can be confusing to read correctly. Sometimes it can mean weakness (failed test) and sometimes it can mean strength (no selling pressure bar followed by and merged with, a buying pressure bar). It is the following bars which will tell you to expect weakness or strength.
  • #12,187
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:00pm Feb 12, 2011 3:00pm
Intel,
You should write a short book or short post about all those vsa terms like ns, no nd, how a test being successful, how it fails..., I'm being serious if you don't mind. As reading Tom book sometimes not enough or not entirely apply to forex
  • #12,188
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:17pm Feb 12, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting duyk20
Intel,
You should write a short book or short post about all those vsa terms like ns, no nd, how a test being successful, how it fails..., I'm being serious if you don't mind. As reading Tom book sometimes not enough or not entirely apply to forex
You will soon have them off pat. Any how, it is the sentiment of the market that matters not the terminology. The terminology is important for discussing VSA, the sentiment is important for trading VSA.
  • #12,189
  • Feb 12, 2011 8:31pm Feb 12, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting duyk20
Intel,
You should write a short book or short post about all those vsa terms like ns, no nd, how a test being successful, how it fails..., I'm being serious if you don't mind. As reading Tom book sometimes not enough or not entirely apply to forex
Intel once posted it somewhere in the thread...read the thread and you will find it...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #12,190
  • Feb 12, 2011 9:01pm Feb 12, 2011 9:01pm
I wonder the usefulness of VSA in forex because of no volume data.
  • #12,191
  • Feb 12, 2011 9:09pm Feb 12, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting clc4x
I wonder the usefulness of VSA in forex because of no volume data.
with the knowledge of a vsa' er like Intel, you can make money like that..

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  • #12,192
  • Edited 9:28pm Feb 12, 2011 9:13pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting taomql4
Really don't see how They don't fill the channel..........

Quoting Beljevina
Haven't seen one of these formations in a while ... that first pin bar in Asia was an ominous sign and frankie just kept it up.

Nothing revolutionary here in my chart, just like no real buyers have yet appeared. We've blown thrown all yesterday's and previous day's support. This DTL support and yest's low may hold, but based on the severe lack of volume, not for long IMO. (really hope I'm wrong on that) Seeing a NS on the 10M, but there was at least one other (1.3670) on the way down, so nothing confirmed yet.
Sorry for saying Higher at the time, clearly I wasn't looking at my own chart showing HV up bar at the S/Resistance Line . And it showed on my Weekly Performance-I aim for 100% per week(I pretty much SUCKED..lol)

P.S- My real account sucked too, Forex took my lunch this week , But Promise to get that Bitch next week..
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  • #12,193
  • Feb 12, 2011 9:28pm Feb 12, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting clc4x
I wonder the usefulness of VSA in forex because of no volume data.
Don't spend your time on wondering about volume...who cares anyway?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #12,194
  • Feb 12, 2011 9:33pm Feb 12, 2011 9:33pm
Quoting clc4x
I wonder the usefulness of VSA in forex because of no volume data.
Boy , This question will never go away..lol
  • #12,195
  • Feb 13, 2011 12:07am Feb 13, 2011 12:07am
Man EURUSD is such a trap. Literally everyone on EURUSD thread is bearish. Everyone on DailyFX, FXStreet. Good that the pros marked down price for two days in a row and completed the HS for the trap.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #12,196
  • Feb 13, 2011 12:11am Feb 13, 2011 12:11am
Quoting mima
Don't spend your time on wondering about volume...who cares anyway?
Really?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4383552

..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #12,197
  • Feb 13, 2011 2:03am Feb 13, 2011 2:03am
Quoting Raza
Really?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4383552

..
Yes, It will take you time to understand what my both responds have in common....Have a good day....



Quoting taomql4
Boy , This question will never go away..lol
Here taomql4 was polite in his respond....I wasn't that much...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #12,198
  • Edited 2:26am Feb 13, 2011 2:13am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting clc4x
I wonder the usefulness of VSA in forex because of no volume data.

And it is mentioned in you blog that you have been trading a few years in forex (3 - 4)? What have you been doing all these years

Is call tick volume as oppose to real volume. Nonetheless with the right feed is valuable information for VSAers..

Ever wonder why in this chart, what happen at A & B, rally the price to C? Well, U should...

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Cheers mate.
  • #12,199
  • Feb 13, 2011 3:06am Feb 13, 2011 3:06am
Sometimes, I will use volume in Currency Futures as guidance.

The ticks volume vary from one broker to another broker.

So far, I do not use Volume as an indicator in FX trading method, but I use it to find potential mid-term support and resistance. However, I use Volume in stock trading.

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  • #12,200
  • Feb 13, 2011 3:18am Feb 13, 2011 3:18am
You probably found your own edge using tick volume in FX trading.

Quoting kave
And it is mentioned in you blog that you have been trading a few years in forex (3 - 4)? What have you been doing all these years

Is call tick volume as oppose to real volume. Nonetheless with the right feed is valuable information for VSAers..

Ever wonder why in this chart, what happen at A & B, rally the price to C? Well, U should...






Cheers mate.
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