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vsa with Malcolm

  • #12,081
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:18am Feb 11, 2011 4:18am
Quoting Beljevina
I allowed my judgement to get clouded ...
I was absolutely positive that 75.3 lines (in average) on your charts will keep you away from any clouded judgment...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #12,082
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:19am Feb 11, 2011 4:19am
Quoting juhanimi
That is not bad.
I allowed my judgement to get clouded by rumours and have been watching bullish EU all week.
Lesson learnt, just trade from charts. That works.
And the worst of it is I let most of my profits on that run up to 1.373, disappear on that rare straight line down.

Note to self - the kind you pin to my thick head: bank early, bank often - it's a wolf market!
  • #12,083
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:21am Feb 11, 2011 4:21am
still looks like bag holding,wonder what will happen when Mubarak steps down
  • #12,084
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:23am Feb 11, 2011 4:23am
Quoting mrWolf
in this chart u can see its coming down on lowering volume isnt that a sighn that theres not that much selling at least by the professionals
Actually, if you watch last 3/4 bars, volume is increasing, so maybe there is no support and that is why it don`t need much effort to move down.
  • #12,085
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:28am Feb 11, 2011 4:28am
Quoting Beljevina
And the worst of it is I let most of my profits on that run up to 1.373, disappear on that rare straight line down.

Note to self - the kind you pin to my thick head: bank early, bank often - it's a wolf market!
Okey, I have to agree, your trade was bad.
I too added 6 notes to myself.
  • #12,086
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:30am Feb 11, 2011 4:30am
Quoting mrWolf
in this chart u can see its coming down on lowering volume isnt that a sighn that theres not that much selling at least by the professionals
Not much buying either.

Typically, market can tank on very little volume if no one is buying. I agree with Bel's post above, no concerted effort to halt the decline..... yet. Until we see some high volume downbars, no longs are on the table imo.
  • #12,087
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:43am Feb 11, 2011 4:43am
Quoting mrWolf
in this chart u can see its coming down on lowering volume isnt that a sighn that theres not that much selling at least by the professionals
I find the H4 chart to be the single most useless for VSA, even daily and H8/H6 have more usefullness IMO. Plus, we don't know how aged that last candle is, and how much is left to go - my current H4 candles with a very good volume feed always look the same (haven't checked esignal).

I really don't care who is selling - there is either no interest/ND or distribution of the right degree is underway, pushing the price down. Either way, we'd be looking for VSA signs on a smaller timeframe chart, and it's just not appearing IMO - we're 200 pips straight down, with barely 1 sole 50 pip retrace. Not trying to shun any VSA concepts here, but it's a good lesson on why being in drawdown isn't a good thing.

Quoting mrWolf
still looks like bag holding,wonder what will happen when Mubarak steps down
Mubarak's not stepping down any time soon. His speech - now that it's out there - combined with his tyrannical way of thinking is clear evidence Egypt will get much worse, and likely have some crescendo event that will need his attention, usually tragic. I have studied these events world over, and this has all the markings - he legitimately believes his people "need him" - by that I suppose he means his God like powers, where he's "built" a country where 40% earn $2/day. In the meantime, there will be many pips - just check USD & USDX - the euro can't go up with a parabolic USDX.
  • #12,088
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:45am Feb 11, 2011 4:45am
Quoting Beljevina
And the worst of it is I let most of my profits on that run up to 1.373, disappear on that rare straight line down.
I believe many others did that mistake too.
When I saw ND`s and other signs, I was thinking: Yes, but it is bullish and it must be something else...
  • #12,089
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:50am Feb 11, 2011 4:50am
Quoting kave
Oh I don't see it this way...to me is not when the volume is low during whatever session you are in, is what the prices is doing "WHEN the volume is low. The way i read VSA is Price action 1st b4 volume. not the other way around.

2ndly ND after signs of strength usually means market have "no interest for now" but loading up when it dips...getting it cheap at support. So might not be a bad thing in this case...

Me stubborn i guess...
That is a very good advice. Volume is like confirmation to that what you are seeing.
  • #12,090
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:58am Feb 11, 2011 4:58am
Quoting juhanimi
I believe many others did that mistake too.
When I saw ND`s and other signs, I was thinking: Yes, but it is bullish and it must be something else...
Yeah, you and me both ... I banked incredibly little, and then left a criminal amount on the table. I can feel it's going to ruin my weekend ...

But that's Murphy's Law for you ... I don't need to get into the coulda/shoulda/woulda.

On a brighter note, 1 5M candle to go to the hour close, but we may have the makings of stopping volume here .... not really enough for my taste, but let's see what happens - that move to 1.355 might happen, but it's realistically ~35 pips as a trade if testing passes; the real question is what happened to any buyers that were around before.

EDIT: Also meant to mention - that's a pretty hefty pin rejection just before it ... now, which post-it on my forehead should I be looking at ...

EDIT2: USDJPY is still firmly heading up, although 83.6 and 83.7 should present potential barriers.
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  • #12,091
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:40am Feb 11, 2011 5:40am
Quoting mrWolf
still looks like bag holding,wonder what will happen when Mubarak steps down
a new puppet will take his place or
if muslim groups win,then cia and secret agencies will make fake terror attacks in egypt,and eventually the next election a candidate backed by us eu and israel will win,saving the people from evil terrorists,uuuuhh scary

notice when wikileaks became popular all over the tv,there was a terror attack in sweden,killing a person ,that shows where cia and eu agencies will go to kill off the truth,

they have to persuade us that something is real,beucase they relie on us ,so can keep being in power,as long those people protest in egypt there will be less crime
  • #12,092
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:46am Feb 11, 2011 5:46am
Quoting Beljevina
Yeah, you and me both ... I banked incredibly little, and then left a criminal amount on the table. I can feel it's going to ruin my weekend ...

But that's Murphy's Law for you ... I don't need to get into the coulda/shoulda/woulda.

On a brighter note, 1 5M candle to go to the hour close, but we may have the makings of stopping volume here .... not really enough for my taste, but let's see what happens - that move to 1.355 might happen, but it's realistically ~35 pips as a trade if testing passes; the real question is what happened to any buyers...
I think patience is the key for longs atm. If I read all these posts it seems exactly what sm wants you to believe. Till news nothing happens imo. Then spike down to swipe all previous up-move stops and up we go.

P.S. This is not a call but my opinion. No trades yet. Just sitting and watching.
  • #12,093
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:47am Feb 11, 2011 5:47am
Quoting Beljevina
Yeah, you and me both ... I banked incredibly little, and then left a criminal amount on the table. I can feel it's going to ruin my weekend ...
But on the bright side, it`s a small price to pay to be a better trader.
Good lesson in long run if we don`t forget it, I believe.
  • #12,094
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:01am Feb 11, 2011 6:01am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I think patience is the key for longs atm.
I agree, just take longs when trend is up. Now it is down ewerywhere.
  • #12,095
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:09am Feb 11, 2011 6:09am
Quoting juhanimi
I agree, just take longs when trend is up. Now it is down ewerywhere.
every news nowadays is against the up move, this even more concrete the idea of uptrend later. When the herd firmly believe it will be down, I believe it's time for the trend to be up.
  • #12,096
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:11am Feb 11, 2011 6:11am
Quoting duyk20
every news nowadays is against the up move, this even more concrete the idea of uptrend later. When the herd firmly believe it will be down, I believe it's time for the trend to be up.
Better not to believe nothing, let charts tell to you if trend is up or down.
  • #12,097
  • Edited 6:24am Feb 11, 2011 6:13am | Edited 6:24am
Quoting kave
Yep, getting there...now on support Y. Next would be a break & test on this, we could see TP then. recovery back to X maybe? err...Mr. Mubarak are u gona to? ok ok maybe not.
Attachment
Break & driven down pass Y, next could be a test on Y as resistance, to see price down to Z..

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  • #12,098
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:22am Feb 11, 2011 6:22am
Quoting kave
My pants are wet now with no test at all after break on U but instead with a ND after UT as seen in 4hrs...back down onto X again but this time with a drive-down to further weakness with increase selling. If support fail on X we could see a break of X with a test. If not it better be another one of those eternal spring back up...

4hr
Attachment
No more spring on X & now driven down pass AR point W. Next could be similar to EU, a test on W (as resistance) in this case to see price to previous prelim support..

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  • #12,099
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:32am Feb 11, 2011 6:32am
I hope some of you guys here have shorted today.... and not trying to catch the reversals on NS setups...
  • #12,100
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:46am Feb 11, 2011 6:46am
Quoting dragan53
a new puppet will take his place or
if muslim groups win,then cia and secret agencies will make fake terror attacks in egypt,and eventually the next election a candidate backed by us eu and israel will win,saving the people from evil terrorists,uuuuhh scary

notice when wikileaks became popular all over the tv,there was a terror attack in sweden,killing a person ,that shows where cia and eu agencies will go to kill off the truth,

they have to persuade us that something is real,beucase they relie on us ,so can keep being in power,as long those people...
I live in a country where we had a similar situation like the one in Egypt right now,a dictator and uprising like this one on a massive scale and usualy when it gets large like that its the end of it,there were probably alot of small ones before but when it gets international like this i think its done and soon probably
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