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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #841
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:29am Feb 8, 2011 3:29am
...so all I need to do now is get my timing right. Erm, I am not the only person to have said that about me -

I need to see these moves a little sooner than I do, and take the trades before the submission to the thread. (GU hitting yesterday's low).
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  • #842
  • Edited 4:39am Feb 8, 2011 4:24am | Edited 4:39am
Hmm, news leaked, or markup for a fall?

Place your bets...

Pins everywhere - 15min candles chasing their tails - dear me, it's messy out there today.

EDIT2: Ah, apparently China has hiked interest rates.
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  • #843
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:40am Feb 8, 2011 9:40am
...small thanks.

Been scalping today - mainly EU. Was watching the Swissie after Chinese rate hike, and recent promise to extend EU loan maturities. Gave my long scalp a nice kick to the WP, and cashed in.

Your target may be on its way.
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  • #844
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:56am Feb 8, 2011 9:56am
Edit, on last chart, stopping on earlier high now busted.
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  • #845
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:10am Feb 8, 2011 10:10am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Thank you, thank you, and thank you - specially for this:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...urtlerules.pdf

Been a crazy day just watching the market today, so happy to do exactly that i.e. watch and learn till I see an opportunity that has more than half a chance of being successful.

i
Quoting sinner-


Awesome stuff IbKA. After a while of this record keeping (unless you want to backtest your orderbook) you will notice a few things about your style which will allow you to fine tune your future trading.

e.g. this week I've been running backtests on a long-only short term trading model of the S&P600 Small-cap index across the last 3 years. The system definitely has merit with no tweaking, it performed with consistent profit even during the 2008 crash and flash crash, outperforming bull markets by a small (but worth chasing) amount and bear...
  • #846
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:32am Feb 9, 2011 4:32am
Jeeez. I just don't learn do I. A little bit of free time tonight and a little bit of cash I forgot was there in the mt4 account since I switched brokers, thought I'd have a bump around on the euro.

Presented below is a discretionary trading technique I developed, called "Sinner Wave Trading"...each wave is annotated with careful thoughts which came to me as the trade developed (blue line is LO price).

Wave 1: Spotted a higher low around LO and entered long on higher close.
Wave 2: Price rockets straight towards my stoploss. Algobots are ensuring the price feed is dirty, somehow they miss filling me (rarely does a broker miss filling my stoploss!).
Wave 3: It's a fight, but bulls are fighting hard.
Wave 4: Lower low reversal, maybe just maybe I'll get my 10.
Wave 5: I'll happily sell to whoever formed that bar for my 10.
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Maybe one day if you guys ask nice I'll teach you how it works
  • #847
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:42am Feb 9, 2011 4:42am
...I have a similar trading technique.

Funny submission, liked it a lot. Hope all is well - for sure the markets are not at present. Boring week so far.

Quoting sinner-
Jeeez. I just don't learn do I. A little bit of free time tonight and a little bit of cash I forgot was there in the mt4 account since I switched brokers, thought I'd have a bump around on the euro.

Presented below is a discretionary trading technique I developed, called "Sinner Wave Trading"...each wave is annotated with careful thoughts which came to me as the trade developed (blue line is LO price).

Wave 1: Spotted a higher low around LO and entered long on higher close.
Wave 2: Price rockets straight towards my stoploss. Algobots are...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #848
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:31am Feb 9, 2011 9:31am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hilarious post as said already, and pleased to see it worked out for you, but not a technique to be recommended for anyone with a pacemaker!

A 'little' bit of free time and a 'little bit' of cash...? In these market conditions, I'm reserving every spare cash and time till after tomorrow when we know where we're going on the Euro, i.e. 1.40 or 1.33x and on cable, 1.63x or 1.58.

This week, each time I think these pairs are going to dip low enough for me to enter long, the powers that be strive to prove me wrong, hence my inactivity this week. Tomorrow's the day, and I pray we're all on the right side of our trades when the market starts to move.

Hope that 'little' bit of cash evolves into something much bigger, and I'm sure it will, with your discretionary trading technique.

i




Quoting sinner-
Jeeez. I just don't learn do I. A little bit of free time tonight and a little bit of cash I forgot was there in the mt4 account since I switched brokers, thought I'd have a bump around on the euro.

Presented below is a discretionary trading technique I developed, called "Sinner Wave Trading"...each wave is annotated with careful thoughts which came to me as the trade developed (blue line is LO price).

Wave 1: Spotted a higher low around LO and entered long on higher close.
Wave 2: Price rockets straight towards my stoploss. Algobots are ensuring...
  • #849
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:19pm Feb 9, 2011 1:19pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Why would the BoE view 'now' as the right time to raise interest rates?


My simplistic mind is thinking the benefits of high interest rates is that banks benefit from higher interest rates from the returns they reap through mortgage and loan repayments; the government benefits through increased taxes on the banks profit derived from high interest rates; while individual savers benefit from higher interest rates applied to their savings from the banks.

We're at a time when wages remain stagnant as inflation heads higher, the dole queues are about to get a whole lot longer (once the public sector cuts start biting) - which will result in more mortgage and loan defaults, less people saving, plus more personal bankruptcies.

Based on the above, please could someone explain to me if you've got a moment, in simple terms "what justification can the BoE provide to say 'now is the right time?'". I'm sure there must be more benefits than those I've listed above, to the economy if interest rates are increased; what I'm not clear on is how this will benefit the masses who are on the dole, or just about to be thrown out of work?

i
  • #850
  • Edited 2:35am Feb 10, 2011 2:24am | Edited 2:35am
Quoting IbkA
Hilarious post as said already, and pleased to see it worked out for you, but not a technique to be recommended for anyone with a pacemaker!

A 'little' bit of free time and a 'little bit' of cash...?...
Hi IbKA,

Just a little fun with my MS Paint, the stop was the stop and the projection was the projection and I've learned to let the signals run

That little bit of cash will probably get wasted on buying OTM puts trying to enforce my view on the global market

Re the direction, plenty of time to hop on if a trend starts to run, right?

Quote
Why would the BoE view 'now' as the right time to raise interest rates?

Don't be fooled IbKA, neither the Federal Reserve nor the BoE nor any other CB actually sets rates. The market sets rates. i.e. as a country looking for domestic and foreign investors to fund your sorry, broke, already money printing, arse you try to sell bonds in auction and investors will bid as they please. If yields are not high enough, investors will not bid high enough to take down the entire auction. So yields are shifted only based on what is acceptable to market participants, otherwise the debt doesn't get funded and...well you can guess what happens then. Either default or stealth default (money printing).

EDIT: Ps what was end of Sep 2010?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...084154/1/.html
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  • #851
  • Feb 10, 2011 2:42am Feb 10, 2011 2:42am
...been reading a little about the current state of the bond markets. General consensus; hugely over-valued. If this pops - and many expect it to do so - interest rates will sour and we will all be in le merde.
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  • #852
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:21am Feb 10, 2011 4:21am
Bruce Krasting has a great post on ZH here

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sack-speak

Quoting Brian Sack head of POMO:
Quote
The upward movement in longer-term interest rates in large part reflects the greater optimism among investors about the outlook for economic growth and the gains do not signal greater worry about inflation.

Requote of a comment I made on that post, including chart:
Quote
The upward movement in longer-term interest rates in large part reflects the greater optimism among investors about the outlook for economic growth and the gains do not signal greater worry about inflation.

LOL! Let's ask the investors shall we?

The high in bonds was late August. Compare TIP to TLT on a 120-day relative basis.

TLT -14%. TIP -0.68%.
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  • #853
  • Feb 10, 2011 10:05am Feb 10, 2011 10:05am
I think it is very difficult to touch Cable at the moment.

Fundamentals would suggest a drop in the pound, but my charts up to the weekly say that the 1.64 level, and maybe beyond, are still on.

USINDX at important level, but suspect fundamentals mean nothing at present, and some huge manipulation is underway to take currency where politics and interest want them.
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  • #854
  • Feb 10, 2011 10:45pm Feb 10, 2011 10:45pm
Any London or Sydney quants (or people willing to relocate hence) with a good record or quants in training around?

If you are looking for a job PM me, I know of some going and can make introduction.

Don't PM me if you are full of shit.
  • #855
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:30am Feb 11, 2011 12:30am
Oh no, Sinner, please don't tell me you're an algorithm disguised as a person... I knew there was something about you.

Mubarak seems to be doing all he can to boost the dollar.
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  • #856
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:50am Feb 11, 2011 12:50am
Some interesting teasers for fundamental considerations.

Rumour is building that the foundations for a 'debt restructure' are being set:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2520...cturing-coming

Spain is ordering a clean up of the cajas:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...contagion.html

And that old pal of mine, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, is calling for new world currency, one supposes, to make his dream of a new world order be more harmonized. If I find the time, I may jot a few thoughts down upon this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-currency.html

The FT coverage is good, but subscription-based, so cannot reproduce here.
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  • #857
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:08am Feb 11, 2011 2:08am
...I trust that you are watching the Aussie?
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  • #858
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:10am Feb 11, 2011 2:10am
Quoting 45Condor
Oh no, Sinner, please don't tell me you're an algorithm disguised as a person... I knew there was something about you.

Mubarak seems to be doing all he can to boost the dollar.
Not me dude, just passing on the word for anyone interested.

Bought some March CL futs today during Tokyo 'cos I've been doing nothing but basically watching the Egyptian twitter feeds as they play out.

Turns out it was a bit early and I was down half a buck per barrel (now -30, pretty much right around the time morning call for prayer went out in Cairo the price started going up again hehe) but still in the trade and will hold until exit on the day before settlement night.

USDX made a pretty convincing higher close last night, but it was still below the 78.3 line mentioned earlier. Stockcharts has the DX daily high at 78.33.

More patience required unless taking the small hitters for an hourly ATR or two
  • #859
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:22am Feb 11, 2011 2:22am
Good morning from France, where Le Rosbif is enjoying a coffee and the first signs of the end of Winter... birds, smell of a change in the air, and the farmer busy with cattle. Still a little cold, but the Sun forces the mercury into double digits come afternoon.

Trading wise - tough calls at the moment for me for anything other that 1 hour takes. Too much speculation of fundamentals - Egypt, Spain, Irish elections in a week, IMF call for new world currency. Pff, the list is endless, and so I think the markets are a little cautious, and watching events closely. I imagine that they have their plans in order, and are just waiting for the triggers. I will, as ever, be watching for when they shoot, and try to follow. UK news today may be a kickstart for intraday trade, but with events in Egypt, perhaps eyes on the US release. And then of course, we have tricky Trichet come end of play, and so expect more drivel.

Hope the futures pan out.

USINDX - just thrown something on the Cable thread using UC, and replicate here for those that are interested. I imagine all eyes are on the Dollar at present, and so the influence of the USINDX will perhaps be more significant than usual as a guide to where we may be going over the next month or so.

As stated on UC submission on the Cable thread:

I tend to use UC as my USINDX substitute, and I see a possible push back up to the 50 FE. The standard green 123.6 fib seems to have provided support.

Guppy profile on the daily has popped north, with the four hour in apparent climb mode
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  • #860
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:25am Feb 11, 2011 2:25am
Hoping this isn't too complicated for this thread:

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Gone to a better place
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