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- #12,001
- Feb 10, 2011 11:18am Feb 10, 2011 11:18am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
- #12,002
- Feb 10, 2011 11:33am Feb 10, 2011 11:33am
U can never have too much shakeout with GU can u. Drop on ND while struggling to break level U, follows by a spring on X again. A test on X could be next.
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1hr
4hr
- #12,003
- Feb 10, 2011 11:45am Feb 10, 2011 11:45am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Fading the specs | 1,374 Posts
- #12,004
- Feb 10, 2011 11:46am Feb 10, 2011 11:46am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Fading the specs | 1,374 Posts
- #12,006
- Feb 10, 2011 11:56am Feb 10, 2011 11:56am
AU approaching target X..
Attachment
4hr
- #12,007
- Feb 10, 2011 12:15pm Feb 10, 2011 12:15pm
- Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts
- #12,008
- Feb 10, 2011 12:24pm Feb 10, 2011 12:24pm
Similar to GU, EU have a test back on X, shakeout like action...level U could be next to bring price back to target. Interim test of demand on 1hr should provide opportunity to level U.
Attachment
It seem from here EU's weakness on unexpected fail test of NS after yesterday rally have weaken it down to test on X. The expect test on W was early.
U is now a potential prelim supply point where EU may test for further weakness. Furthermore a downward channel could be drawn now to at least ascertain the next scenario for this pair. Next could be a test back up on U for a sell down to TP on level Z which confluence with the lower channel.
4hr chart;
Daily Chart showing where Z is derived & the confluence to lower channel.
- #12,009
- Feb 10, 2011 12:25pm Feb 10, 2011 12:25pm
Last time I tried to catch the knife, I got hurt.
Price was marked down pre NFP. There was stopping volume, a retrace but further downward move on lower volume. As it was late in the session, I speculated that price would correct a bit of the days movement, like it does most days. I had other things to do, so I did not follow more...
On that day price reversed again when it entered the zone of first buying (blue- / high volume area) and made lower lows.
(The Dr. had posted that he would not take longs before price had passed that zone on that day)
I think that because of a more bullish feeling on that day (we had a rally in near past), many people bought in the blue area. There were lots of longs to liquidate which formed strong resistance.
Today, price penetrated the area of initial buying. Is it reasonable to assume that because the enviroment is maybe more bearish now, that not many wanted to hold on to their longs, so there were not much resistance to higher prices that moment?
Or can we assume that enoug longs could have been closed by observing that the shape of that down candle after further downward move on high volume?
(I know, there is a double bottom, now and all that, but I want to know what is the difference in the background that caused the behaviour)
Price was marked down pre NFP. There was stopping volume, a retrace but further downward move on lower volume. As it was late in the session, I speculated that price would correct a bit of the days movement, like it does most days. I had other things to do, so I did not follow more...
On that day price reversed again when it entered the zone of first buying (blue- / high volume area) and made lower lows.
(The Dr. had posted that he would not take longs before price had passed that zone on that day)
I think that because of a more bullish feeling on that day (we had a rally in near past), many people bought in the blue area. There were lots of longs to liquidate which formed strong resistance.
Today, price penetrated the area of initial buying. Is it reasonable to assume that because the enviroment is maybe more bearish now, that not many wanted to hold on to their longs, so there were not much resistance to higher prices that moment?
Or can we assume that enoug longs could have been closed by observing that the shape of that down candle after further downward move on high volume?
(I know, there is a double bottom, now and all that, but I want to know what is the difference in the background that caused the behaviour)
- #12,010
- Edited 12:33pm Feb 10, 2011 12:29pm | Edited 12:33pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Change is the only constant
- #12,011
- Feb 10, 2011 12:30pm Feb 10, 2011 12:30pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trading, Not Posting | 2,130 Posts
- #12,012
- Feb 10, 2011 12:30pm Feb 10, 2011 12:30pm
there is something going on in the markets. pay attention to eur. the whole mubarak bs news which is said to be announced later this evening might be used as proxy to explain another explosive move.
- #12,013
- Feb 10, 2011 12:32pm Feb 10, 2011 12:32pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #12,018
- Feb 10, 2011 12:58pm Feb 10, 2011 12:58pm
I'm not sure there was/is a change in behaviour. 3620-3645 area is a region of high activity - ie a lot of churning will happen in that area. It is a good spot to exit trades, but not to enter IMO.
EDIT: region identified with box in the chart. the lines represent POC's as far back as Jan 23/24.
OK, this hype about market profile has got me, too
I got the tool and I'm reading "Markets in profile", I'm at page 60 or so, but I did not get much of it, yet.
So around the POCs are balance areas - Its like one can see them by looking at a chart - areas where price spend a lot of time?!
Would you consider these areas (or maybe exactly the next near past POC) as targets?
- #12,019
- Feb 10, 2011 1:00pm Feb 10, 2011 1:00pm
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Fading the specs | 1,374 Posts