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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,901
  • Feb 10, 2011 3:32am Feb 10, 2011 3:32am
Haven't seen one of these formations in a while ... that first pin bar in Asia was an ominous sign and frankie just kept it up.

Nothing revolutionary here in my chart, just like no real buyers have yet appeared. We've blown thrown all yesterday's and previous day's support. This DTL support and yest's low may hold, but based on the severe lack of volume, not for long IMO. (really hope I'm wrong on that) Seeing a NS on the 10M, but there was at least one other (1.3670) on the way down, so nothing confirmed yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,902
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:07am Feb 10, 2011 4:07am
EU-H1

Before last upmove, they took stops out, but now looks like they are not going to do that.
  • #11,903
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:09am Feb 10, 2011 4:09am
seems we got our selling climax now aligning with the shakeout below the prelim sup/spring. the next confirmation that we are building a cause for an upmove later. everything is in play. also a fine nuance to pay attention to, is that we broke the steep supply line and formed the shakeout bar off of it. further indication of a change in supply/demand situation. resonable upside cap for the initial rally here before testing the lower spots of the range again should be the 3645-50 area, which we should not find much supply in, otherwise we could face another dip.

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/7...0210110323.png
  • #11,904
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:13am Feb 10, 2011 4:13am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
seems we got our selling climax now aligning with the shakeout below the prelim sup/spring. the next confirmation that we are building a cause for an upmove later. everything is in play. also a fine nuance to pay attention to, is that we broke the steep supply line and formed the shakeout bar off of it. further indication of a change in supply/demand situation.
And the 2 hour is showing demand atm at the same place were yesterday and also 2 days ago.
  • #11,905
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:19am Feb 10, 2011 4:19am
exactly, near the close of the 2hr shakeout bar we yesterday rallied off. good observation.

we now have to focus on further testing with confirmation in form of following upbars to be get more confirmation. from the current picture, especially that they immediately began the day with killing every stop they could get, makes me more confident about a reverse later on.

Quoting 1pipperhour
And the 2 hour is showing demand atm at the same place were yesterday and also 2 days ago.
  • #11,906
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:20am Feb 10, 2011 4:20am
EU-H1

There is so much money under last upmove, if they don`t take that money, then I think we gonna see trendchange.
  • #11,907
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:21am Feb 10, 2011 4:21am
OK, feeling better about this - buyers have arrived - strength on M15 too. Will look to buy more on 1.3625 if we touch there again. Heck, we're 120+ pips down from yest. Am looking for hopefully 1.37 pre NY open. Too bad we can't depend on signs from S&P & USD correlation - most of that looks to be broken IMO.

P.S. - Watch for any fallout from the GBP rate decision in 90+ minutes; not expected to raise, but you never know of wording or otherwise impact on the euro. (And note, this shot is a demo account pic - I more or less do the same in my trading account)
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  • #11,908
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:26am Feb 10, 2011 4:26am
yeah, i am doing fine now. i use a chart with 3 bars plotted on, so i can see everything

in a handful of years i will be 1/3 of 105


[quote=malcolmb14;4385791]DR G was my mentor when i started .. he is 105 years old now but can still see the charts ok

  • #11,909
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:28am Feb 10, 2011 4:28am
i don't have time at the moment, need to finish my make up

Quoting malcolmb14
Dr G .. can you please comment on this ?
Quote
Originally Posted by Larseg
Interesting theory Malcolmb

Right up there with gay guys dressing up as girls cause they arent really gay... tihihi...


Did you see the 2 apache helicopters?
Cleaning up som BBC photographers and civilianz
  • #11,910
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:31am Feb 10, 2011 4:31am
Quoting kave
Test on U did not materialize (could be due to quieter trading volume after that shakeout) now price hovering on 50MA for support, still we like to see a test on level U as it edging towards a break above the 2 week trend line..

Attachment
U can never have too much shakeout with GU can u. Drop on ND while struggling to break level U, follows by a spring on X again. A test on X could be next.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,911
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:32am Feb 10, 2011 4:32am
i've also been watching gu with interest but one thing which makes my gut not feel too good is the simple fact of constantly making lower highs.

Quoting kave
U can never have too much shakeout with GU can u. Drop on ND follows by a spring on X again. A test on X could be next.

Attachment
  • #11,912
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:35am Feb 10, 2011 4:35am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i've also been watching gu with interest but one thing which makes my gut not feel to good is the simple fact of constantly making lower highs.
I don't see it this way. For me is the overall reduction of volatility (overall range contraction, usually represent by contracting triangle-like formation)) that could result in eventual breakout...
  • #11,913
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:36am Feb 10, 2011 4:36am
interesting point

Quoting kave
I don't see it this way. For me is the overall reduction of volatility (overall range contraction, usually represent by contracting triangle-like formation)) that could result in eventual breakout...
  • #11,914
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:48am Feb 10, 2011 4:48am
Quoting kave
EU Test in rising market now, any break above these tiny "lower high" bars should see price hit W or even higher to targets marked..
Attachment
Similar to GU, EU have a test back on X, shakeout like action...level U could be next to bring price back to target. Interim test of demand on 1hr should provide opportunity to level U.
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  • #11,915
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:48am Feb 10, 2011 4:48am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
seems we got our selling climax now aligning with the shakeout below the prelim sup/spring. the next confirmation that we are building a cause for an upmove later. everything is in play. also a fine nuance to pay attention to, is that we broke the steep supply line and formed the shakeout bar off of it. further indication of a change in supply/demand situation. resonable upside cap for the initial rally here before testing the lower spots of the range again should be the 3645-50 area, which we should not find much supply in, otherwise we could face...
Tiny red bars = no supply

Can you please explain how you determine no supply as compared to no demand?
  • #11,916
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:52am Feb 10, 2011 4:52am
i was referring to the tiny red bar on that screenshot.

ns is a bar trying to go down but produced a tight range, close off the lows, low vol where previously was high vol. a no demand is the same, except it tries to go up and preferably closes off the highs.


Quoting Musashi
Tiny red bars = no supply

Can you please explain how you determine no supply as compared to no demand?
  • #11,917
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:53am Feb 10, 2011 4:53am
Quoting kave
We could expect further test of weakness since now AU is on Y..after a series of trap upmoves action.

Attachment
AU approaching target X..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,918
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:54am Feb 10, 2011 4:54am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
yeah...
in a handful of years i will be 1/3 of 105
....
only 30+ years old? for real?
no need for make up if u are that young

Quoting Musashi
Tiny red bars = no supply
Can you please explain how you determine no supply as compared to no demand?
no demand = tiny green (up) bars
  • #11,919
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:55am Feb 10, 2011 4:55am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i was referring to the tiny red bar on that screenshot.

ns is a bar trying to go down but produced a tight range, close off the lows, low vol where previously was high vol. a no demand is the same, except it tries to go up and preferably closes off the highs.
Ok that makes perfect sense, and the fact that the bar range is narrow and closed off of the lows and has lower volume than previous bars tells you that the sellers are drying up and that buying is likely to commence.

Knowing this at what point do you actually decide to buy?
  • #11,920
  • Feb 10, 2011 5:03am Feb 10, 2011 5:03am
Quoting Musashi
Ok that makes perfect sense, and the fact that the bar range is narrow and closed off of the lows and has lower volume than previous bars tells you that the sellers are drying up and that buying is likely to commence.

Knowing this at what point do you actually decide to buy?

You really should read 'master the markets' - tom williams and then you will be less puzzled by whats going on. Pages 69 - 98 are probably the most imformative pages if you want to get a quick understanding - although id do yourself a favour and read the whole thing.
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