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Adilius Live Trading Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Sep 4, 2011 7:34am Jan 28, 2011 4:13am | Edited Sep 4, 2011 7:34am
I was keeping my demo journal for about 5 months. Things were not well with it at all. So I thought the true problem is in my ability to sit on hands and be picky about setups. I think this is really hard to do when your risk and gain equal to ZERO. So I decided to open a small live account, where I would continue my learning to become a full time trader some day. So here it is a live Oanda based 3K account. Everything is set and ready to go. Let's do it

2011 RESULTS:

Initial Deposit:.............$3000

JANUARY $0
FEBRUARY $48.32
MARCH -$45.07
APRIL -$177.20
MAY -$31.20
JUNE -$101.10
JULY $72.71
AUGUST $14.92
  • #2
  • Jan 29, 2011 12:11am Jan 29, 2011 12:11am
Good luck Adilius. I don't care what anyone tells you, PATIENCE is the key to success in FX. Pick your trades very carefully and if it's not a great setup (one that you're familiar with ... let it pass), there's always another setup.

Example: This week I took one trade ... for +103 pips. I normally trade the 15/5 minute charts, but this was a trade I took on a higher time frame.

Another piece of advice: the less you can let other members influence your decision ... the better.
  • #3
  • Jan 29, 2011 1:48am Jan 29, 2011 1:48am
Quoting GulfCoastPip
Good luck Adilius. I don't care what anyone tells you, PATIENCE is the key to success in FX. Pick your trades very carefully and if it's not a great setup (one that you're familiar with ... let it pass), there's always another setup.

Example: This week I took one trade ... for +103 pips. I normally trade the 15/5 minute charts, but this was a trade I took on a higher time frame.

Another piece of advice: the less you can let other members influence your decision ... the better.
Thank you GulfCoast, very good points! Absolutely agree Patience is the key.
I am not in rush with this, have not taken any trades yet... waiting for that perfect setups that fits all my criteria.
  • #4
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:04am Jan 31, 2011 2:04am
I saw your post on the J16 thread and saw your link to this journal under your name.

My thoughts (from someone who was in the same place about a year ago, only my big losses were in real accounts)... If you were on demo and it didn't go well, then only open the smallest unit possible when you take a trade on this account until you have three successful months in a row. If you are trying J16 method then open two trades of .01 lots and close the first one at your small target and watch for a reversal pattern or trail the remaining one behind the keltner channel to exit your second one. (trailing the keltner got me the biggest gains, especially when there were continuation patterns that formed.)

Really get to know about pinbars and engulfing patterns to enter trades and use double bottom/ double top for continuation of the trades.

Finally, only follow a couple of pairs at first and only use the daily time frame. If you are like me you might find that you have 5 or 6 trades per pair per month in the beginning. You will likely open many more trades in the first month than you will in the 3rd month and then by the 6th month you will find that you are probably only taking a couple of trades per month at the most.

In my 6th through 12th month I only averaged 2 trades per pair per month and had double the gains from my demo period. J16 will blow your mind once you get the hang of it.
Be bullish on you.
  • #5
  • Jan 31, 2011 4:36am Jan 31, 2011 4:36am
Quoting gejordan
I saw your post on the J16 thread and saw your link to this journal under your name.

My thoughts (from someone who was in the same place about a year ago, only my big losses were in real accounts)... If you were on demo and it didn't go well, then only open the smallest unit possible when you take a trade on this account until you have three successful months in a row....
Gejordan, thank you for your post. Yes I am trading just 0.5% from the account size, so is $15. I will continue to trade this small size until I see some consistency in my results.

Just like you said my plan also is to hold to a trade. (exit half, hold the remainint half).

Thanks! I will try to update this thread after each trade I make.
With live results of course.
  • #6
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:34pm Jan 31, 2011 3:34pm
Moved my SL to BE on this first trade. Let's see what happens next
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  • #7
  • Jan 31, 2011 4:40pm Jan 31, 2011 4:40pm
Nice one, one question how many pips you use on STOP LOSS and take profit?

Do you trade basing in James16 patterns right?

And you always trade on daily charts? Do you leave your trades open for how many days? Doesn't the swing between hundreds of pips of fluctuation affect you and hit your STOP LOSS?

Basically these are some of the problems I have as a new trader.

Keep it up!
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #8
  • Jan 31, 2011 4:52pm Jan 31, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
Nice one, one question how many pips you use on STOP LOSS and take profit?

Do you trade basing in James16 patterns right?

And you always trade on daily charts? Do you leave your trades open for how many days? Doesn't the swing between hundreds of pips of fluctuation affect you and hit your STOP LOSS?

Basically these are some of the problems I have as a new trader.

Keep it up!
Hello ML,

Thanks for your post. I will try to answer, but remember I'm not an expert neither Just trying to implement what I learned.


Do you trade basing in James16 patterns right?
- Yes, exactly. I trade only Pins and Outside bars. Still thinking how can I incorporate Inside Bars. Basically yes, I trade only what is taught in J16 public thread.

And you always trade on daily charts?
- Yes for now only Daily and Weekly TF. I was searching the ways to trade 2-day, 3-day and maybe 8H and 4H, but for now I decided to start simple. So yes only daily&weekly.

Do you leave your trades open for how many days?
- I want to learn to hold to a trade as much as possible. So we will see if I will be able to manage it. Ideally I dream about catching a trend that will last several weeks or more

Doesn't the swing between hundreds of pips of fluctuation affect you and hit your STOP LOSS?
- I didn't really understood what you mean. If you mean that the SL is too far because it is daily - this is really not a problem, I don't care how many pips my SL is away from my entry because it is always the %. So for now I trade 0.5% - that means it doesn't matter if SL is 20 pips or 200 pips it will be still 0.5% risk. (That is also from J16 public thread)

The same is for Take Profit. I try to view how far it is in % terms. For example I try to go for at least 1:1 Risk reward. That means I will aim for at least 0.5% Profit.

If you just ask on the J16 thread I'm sure seniors will quickly point you the posts where these things explained in details.

  • #9
  • Feb 1, 2011 7:33am Feb 1, 2011 7:33am
Quoting Adilius07
Moved my SL to BE on this first trade. Let's see what happens next
BE hit on that one.
  • #10
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:51am Feb 4, 2011 4:51am
Ok here is the January results
0%
There was just one trade which ended in breakeven.
I closed it first of Feb., so here it is still shown as open profit.
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  • #11
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:45am Feb 4, 2011 5:45am
Quoting Adilius07
Ok here is the January results
0%
There was just one trade which ended in breakeven.
I closed it first of Feb., so here it is still shown as open profit.
Good stuff Adilius,

I love the fact that all those talks at the thread and the 20 days you spent on your charts did not push you to be undisciplined and take trades you would regret taking in hindsight.

really good going...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #12
  • Feb 4, 2011 6:06am Feb 4, 2011 6:06am
Quoting ghous
Good stuff Adilius,

I love the fact that all those talks at the thread and the 20 days you spent on your charts did not push you to be undisciplined and take trades you would regret taking in hindsight.

really good going...

g.
Thank you very much Ghous!
I think the fact that I may lose real money, even though not much but still, really keeps me away of obviously weak setups.
I do not regret I started this with live money, should work, I hope...
Thanks!
  • #13
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:51am Feb 9, 2011 3:51am
I saw your recent posts on r/r and thought I might try and give you some helpful thoughts. If you are finding that the risk reward is out of balance, then my thought is one of a couple of things...

(1) you're taking entry too early - The best trades often happen when the pattern occurs and then there is a pullback. Think of the pinbar setup when it's not as long of a pin as it should be. Inherently, this is not the best setup to begin with, but it is a valid setup. So wait for it to pull back to the level of the bar before it and then take the trade. Better risk reward.

(2) or too early with too big of a position - often times we see a pattern we like and want to jump right in. If I decide to jump right in I often take a smaller position than normal. This immediately cuts my risk in half. I then look for opportunities to build my position if it moves in my direction. Adding to a winning position also cuts the risk/reward.

(3) you're missing the signs to get out early - I had someone ask me on my trading journal the other day if the stop loss on my chfjpy trade was really my stop loss. The answer was no. I look at the initial stop loss as only an emergency. If I see the trade moving back against me, I always jump to a smaller timeframe and look for reason to get out. Again, cutting the risk reward.

(4) stop using FTA as a take profit and use it as a BE - I have noticed on the thread recently a sentiment to take profits earlier and earlier. After I posted about my success I got all these questions about how my trades could be for so many pips. The simple answer is that I don't jump out at the first sign of trouble, I move to BE. If I have picked a good entry, the trade will get through the trouble or I will have waited to take the trade and FTA will be better than 2:1 or at least 1.5:1. If I was wrong, moving the trade to BE is still a win. If I get stopped at BE I don't look at it as losing potential pips, I look at it as a key learning to figure out why my entry wasn't strong enough to earn me more pips.

Finally, plot some fibs. I find fibs will get you out earlier and give you better targets to put r/r in your favor.

I currently have a AUDUSD live trade going on my journal. It had initial risk of 60 (or 120 for both lots), but the first trouble area is only 40 pips into the trade. Well, I am not going to exit here, I moved to break even. I knew my trade risks from the beginning and I know if it reverses at the FTA, then it was a flawed trade to begin with. But, I also wasn't going to take a 120 pip loss, at a 60 pip loss total I would have likely known the trade was flawed. Now my r/r is 80pips for 60pips using FTA. My real first target is 110 pips away through the trouble, now we have 220:120 but really 220:60.

Hope this makes sense and possibly helps give you a different view of FTA.
Be bullish on you.
  • #14
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:24am Feb 9, 2011 4:24am
Quoting gejordan
I saw your recent posts on r/r and thought I might try and give you some helpful thoughts....
Hi Gejordan, thank you very much for your advice. I will really need to take time and think about this. I read you post very carefully. At this moment I feel that taking a pullback trades will not suit me well. I did that in past with really not good outcome...

Your advice on moving to BE at FTA instead of taking full profit - I think that is really the best thing to do yes. That is also one of the James16 "this is critical" suggestions. However I find it very difficult to do with daily charts, as many times price will touch the FTA and come back the same day, so I need to babysit the trade to catch when it hits FTA...

But overall I get your point. I need to look ways to hold (not bailing out at FTA) and look for the ways to reduce stop. I feel this also, but reviewing all possibilities and different variations I still cannot get to one solid method of doing this.

I was also thinking that maybe I should just be more flexible.... like when I see a "perfect setup" I will not exit at FTA but will hold for 1:1, and when the setups is not that perfect I would exit at FTA.... however this brings one question up " why take less than perfect trades?" and I know that perfect just doesn't exit.... I should just choose one and stick with it...
  • #15
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:37am Feb 9, 2011 4:37am
At least you are thinking about it, and that is half the battle.

I'll be interested to see your future trades and take a look at what your initial SL and TP thoughts are. Maybe feedback when an actual trade is going will be helpful.
Be bullish on you.
  • #16
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:46am Feb 9, 2011 4:46am
Quoting gejordan
At least you are thinking about it, and that is half the battle.

I'll be interested to see your future trades and take a look at what your initial SL and TP thoughts are. Maybe feedback when an actual trade is going will be helpful.
Thanks Gejordan for your support!

To be honest at the moment I think about these two ways to do it:

1) SL behind setup bar (behind BUOB).
Exit full at FTA (and hope my win rate will be high).

2) SL behind setup bar (behind BUOB).
Move to be after next bar closed even by 1 pip in profit and wait
for either BE or TP which is @ 1:1 to be hit.

I made a small backtest, just marked some 44 trades off objective locations (BRN) and just applied different management approaches. This was not the test to see how I pick trades, but how I will manage them. Both these above approaches give the best results, not in gains but the following:

1. Both have the least lossing streak
2. High win rate (yes lots of BE for second approach but still)

I was surprised to see that the best gain is accumulated when I just don't use any kind of BE and sit for 1:2 RR. The % gain was actually THREE times higher, lol, but I also had a worst loosing streak this way ( 6 in a row)

I know this backtest is too small of a sample. But it is enough for me to think what may work and what may not work.

Anyway thank you very much for your support. I will keep you updated on my progress! Thanks
  • #17
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:58am Feb 9, 2011 5:58am
Here is a review on your EG break-even trade using your entry and my thoughts on an improved entry and R:R in general. Applied my thoughts on R:R and how I would've approached it. Again, hope its helpful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be bullish on you.
  • #18
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:12am Feb 9, 2011 6:12am
I'm still working at this too. But something to consider is that you may not need to move straight to BE at the FTA. Maybe just move your SL CLOSER to BE. Quite often following entry off the high or low of a PA bar, the PA bar's high or low then acts as support or resistance. By hiding the SL just within the PA bar, you can often avoid a BE outcome. By being very picky with your PA selection (noting size, shape and location), you can increase your probability of getting to the FTA (and beyond), and it gives you the opportunity to reduce your SL so that your AVERAGE Loss (ie average risk) for all your trades is much smaller. Also take note of how far price moves against you for your trades (how far does price retrace into the PA bar). Often, the better the setup, the less it retraces.This can help guide you with perhaps reducing the initial SL placement.
Good luck with it.
Cheers,
John
  • #19
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:14am Feb 9, 2011 6:14am
Quoting gejordan
Here is a review on your EG break-even trade using your entry and my thoughts on an improved entry and R:R in general. Applied my thoughts on R:R and how I would've approached it. Again, hope its helpful.
Thanks Gejordan, I got the idea. I need to sit and think about it. So basically I enter half on the brake and enter the other half after pullback, if no pullback happens I just take my profits from half of the position.... and if the pullback happend took my second lot and stopped me out - I still loose less than if I had a full position on a break of that bar. Sounds good.

Oh I will now make the same backtest on those 44 pairs using this concept. I will tell you the results. If your are interested, here is those trades for which I make my trade management tests:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=88228
  • #20
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:25am Feb 9, 2011 6:25am
Quoting johoma
I'm still working at this too. But something to consider is that you may not need to move straight to BE at the FTA. Maybe just move your SL CLOSER to BE. Quite often following entry off the high or low of a PA bar, the PA bar's high or low then acts as support or resistance. By hiding the SL just within the PA bar, you can often avoid a BE outcome. By being very picky with your PA selection (noting size, shape and location), you can increase your probability of getting to the FTA (and beyond), and it gives you the opportunity to reduce your SL...
Hi John, yes that was actually first approach I tried. Because it really sounds logical. I had my SL behing setup bar, Pinbar for example, then I would move my SL behind left eye, or behind BRN etc... however, as I noticed many many times price would just hit my stop by a few pips and then continue in my direction. This is really the hardest thing for me to accept... much easier to scratch a trade by moving to BE... although I understand that this way when price does not hit my SL my wins will be most of the time with positive RR.... but still for some reason this type of trade management is somehow foreign to me... I keep it in mind, but don't really feel like applying it.
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