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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,741
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:27am Feb 8, 2011 10:27am
Quoting kave
The test on X...
Attachment
I'm on the exact same line of thinking as you here. Nice chart.
  • #11,742
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:30am Feb 8, 2011 10:30am
also important what happened inside there. extreme price & time compression.since it does not immediately play out, most tend to ignore the importance but this can give way for major moves. i also think this time we have seen the launchpad for breaking 1.40 with ease.

Quoting Beljevina
Thanks. You're right - it's a range & limit definer. Guess I was thinking of it in those terms but wrote otherwise; perhaps I've been too concentrating too much on the PA within and after NFP, which has shown strength, albeit a bit slow in the making.

Regardless, am glad to see it wasn't a major barrier any longer, as we've shot past by a few pips. Now ... 1.37/1.371, only 20 pips away...
  • #11,743
  • Feb 8, 2011 11:14am Feb 8, 2011 11:14am
These are my live tradesfrom today and the past 24 hrs using VSA & AMT.Tatget for today reached,I am expecting a retrace from 3700 in Asia to the 3640/30 area for a reload to 37830/38220 area depending on the strenght of the pull back from the 3688 area.Many thanks to all in this thread for your input.
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hifx
  • #11,744
  • Feb 8, 2011 12:10pm Feb 8, 2011 12:10pm
GU's re accumulation continues with this spring after support on X.

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  • #11,745
  • Feb 8, 2011 12:33pm Feb 8, 2011 12:33pm
Here is something i am watching on the dollar index - a potential inverted H/S forming on the Dollar Index ?
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hifx
  • #11,746
  • Feb 8, 2011 1:27pm Feb 8, 2011 1:27pm
EU Short Scalp on 15M Chart: I got 44 pips from this easy counter trend short scalp from 1.3683 down to 1.3649. No.4 might better be designated as a squat down as EU buckled from pressure due to pushing up through resistance. The bar following 5 made a two bar reversal; it's low tick activity (TA) suggesting a dearth of buyers.
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  • #11,747
  • Feb 8, 2011 1:45pm Feb 8, 2011 1:45pm
Here is the retrace i was looking for from 3688,Entry at bottom of channel and 6 pips from NFP open HV bar @ 36351 & 36458This is a mini acccount -stop is tight R/R High (i hope) Would any body care to comment on the volume and bar set up - potential 2 bar reversal with small test on very low volume ?
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hifx
  • #11,748
  • Feb 8, 2011 1:59pm Feb 8, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting HIFX
Here is the retrace i was looking for from 3688,Entry at bottom of channel and 6 pips from NFP open HV bar @ 36351 & 36458This is a mini acccount -stop is tight R/R High (i hope) Would any body care to comment on the volume and bar set up - potential 2 bar reversal with small test on very low volume ?
This is exactly what we need - low volume test into previous high volume down area.
  • #11,749
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:09pm Feb 8, 2011 2:09pm
Is anybody looking at a potential reversal on the 4 HR Dollar index - it is making me edgy also EUR has broken out of 15 min channel trend.
hifx
  • #11,750
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:13pm Feb 8, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting kave
GU's re accumulation continues with this spring after support on X.

Attachment
Just to add to the above a view in 1hr, Potential test after spring (shakeout) on X.

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  • #11,751
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:17pm Feb 8, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting HIFX
These are my live tradesfrom today and the past 24 hrs using VSA & AMT.Tatget for today reached,I am expecting a retrace from 3700 in Asia to the 3640/30 area for a reload to 37830/38220 area depending on the strenght of the pull back from the 3688 area.Many thanks to all in this thread for your input.
You mentioned that you are trading using VSA & AMT.

It seems that your 1st buy order was done on the 1430GMT on monday.
I am just curious what was your reasoning to get in at that time if you can recall.

Thanks for your chart.
Best Pip Wishes!
  • #11,752
  • Edited 2:23pm Feb 8, 2011 2:17pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting HIFX
Here is the retrace i was looking for from 3688,Entry at bottom of channel and 6 pips from NFP open HV bar @ 36351 & 36458This is a mini acccount -stop is tight R/R High (i hope) Would any body care to comment on the volume and bar set up - potential 2 bar reversal with small test on very low volume ?
once 3656 level failed it was more likely for price to continue down to about 3620. This is of course easy to say now that it has reached 3620 - but that is around the low of today's value area whereas 3656 is the high, so if the high fails chances are price will continue till the low. we now have a selling climax and shakeout type bar on M5 at the value low, which means its being supported. Given the time of day though i don't expect much of a move up from here - probably back to around 3640 - todays developing POC.

chart to follow soon.
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Change is the only constant
  • #11,753
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:25pm Feb 8, 2011 2:25pm
Took the Bull by the horn and added 1 more mini lot @ 36261 - Seeing strenght in ES.S/L @ 25805 open positions in the last session covered by yesterdays positions @ 35507 and 35137. comments on method appreciated
hifx
  • #11,754
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:34pm Feb 8, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting HIFX
Took the Bull by the horn and added 1 more mini lot @ 36261 - Seeing strenght in ES.S/L @ 25805 open positions in the last session covered by yesterdays positions @ 35507 and 35137. comments on method appreciated
good luck with the trade. I would not have taken it for several reasons.
1) 3:30 PM eastern - too close to NY close. Got burnt by a trade like that a couple of weeks ago

2) you bought right at near todays developing POC - just changed to 3632. To much noise at that level to open trades, i prefer to enter a unfair prices (unfair highs/lows)
Change is the only constant
  • #11,755
  • Edited 3:09pm Feb 8, 2011 2:37pm | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting HIFX
Here is the retrace i was looking for from 3688,Entry at bottom of channel and 6 pips from NFP open HV bar @ 36351 & 36458This is a mini acccount -stop is tight R/R High (i hope) Would any body care to comment on the volume and bar set up - potential 2 bar reversal with small test on very low volume ?
Hello Friend. I submit my probably wrong VSA understanding of 15M EU at the moment in context of a multi-day ongoing uptrend in the background. Most recent dominant influence is, IMO, bullish. Although resistance above 1.3685 may be strong.
Bar 2 is not an up thrust because it does not make a swing high top although it penetrates into a price region where there previously was much supply selling.

(edit: All proponents or advocates of Volume Spread Analysis that I have read strongly emphasize the importance of background context due to the influence of strength or weakness remaining at particular prices. My understanding of VSA entails speculators/investors should always without exception start any technical analysis by examination of what has already occurred to the left and on all time frames.

This post is for entertainment only. No speculator or investor should take any action based on my chart musings especially with their hard earned money.)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,756
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:54pm Feb 8, 2011 2:54pm
Than you all for your insights.The up thrust as shown in your chart rbumbalough developed after my aggressive entry and did/has given me concern -but i am seeing movement in ES to the upside and potential weakness in DIX for the moment.Stops in the last 3 open position will be reviewed as PA develops.Potentialy we could see further downside to the 35814 area during Asia ? I am seeing buying on dips and as i said in my prreviouse posts i am looking long term (next 36 hrs )to 37404 -37672 and possible beyond.But and it is a very big but would i be right in saying at the afore mentioned area 37672 there is massive resistance and a potential H&S developing on the 4hr or has that been negaited by the fall to 35150 ?
hifx
  • #11,757
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:12pm Feb 8, 2011 3:12pm
Can somebody comment on the bar marked in yellow.Would i be correct in my assumption ?
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hifx
  • #11,758
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:13pm Feb 8, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting HIFX
Potentialy we could see further downside to the 35814 area during Asia ?
it is possible, but we tested that area today during London/NY overlap so i think less likely.

on a side note...3 days of compressed price range since friday. last time that happened was january 7-11 and resulted in several days of above average range...let's hope we repeat that this week
Change is the only constant
  • #11,759
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:15pm Feb 8, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting tgwhbb
once 3656 level failed it was more likely for price to continue down to about 3620. This is of course easy to say now that it has reached 3620 - but that is around the low of today's value area whereas 3656 is the high, so if the high fails chances are price will continue till the low. we now have a selling climax and shakeout type bar on M5 at the value low, which means its being supported. Given the time of day though i don't expect much of a move up from here - probably back to around 3640 - todays developing POC.

chart to follow soon.
3620 is also a 38.2 retrace of this leg up from 3509 to 3686...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,760
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:28pm Feb 8, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting tgwhbb
on a side note...3 days of compressed price range since friday. last time that happened was january 7-11 and resulted in several days of above average range...let's hope we repeat that this week
ahhh, now it makes sense...Bernanke is speaking at 10AM eastern!
Change is the only constant
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