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  • #801
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:19am Feb 8, 2011 4:19am
Quoting forex1962
I was thinking that, I'm using camarilla seems a good refernce point
My preference is for FXIPivots and i use FXPro (MT4)...i guess it's what you get used to.
  • #802
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:20am Feb 8, 2011 4:20am
Quoting ReaM
Until now there were no valid set ups since London open
What are you looking at ReaM and what time frame?
I'm looking at EU at 3648 with a stop of 56 on the 15m/1h
  • #803
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:27am Feb 8, 2011 4:27am
Quoting forex1962
What are you looking at ReaM and what time frame?
I'm looking at EU at 3648 with a stop of 56 on the 15m/1h
yeah, it still needs to go there and there might be a different new high.

I think Warren Buffet is changing currencies right now so be careful^^
I found a penny today. That's +100 pips for me.
  • #804
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:30am Feb 8, 2011 4:30am
Agreed, nothing on GU or EU and now on both pairs a new trend needs to form for valid set ups in my opinion.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #805
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:39am Feb 8, 2011 4:39am
Quoting forex1962
What are you looking at ReaM and what time frame?
I'm looking at EU at 3648 with a stop of 56 on the 15m/1h
3648 could potentially be risky mate as 50 levels are always psychological levels so you could see a decent bounce there. Your also right near R1 and weekly pivot (just above). I suppose if your SL is a decent size you may be ok. 3660 would be more comfortable for me if a good 15min trend forms first.

Cable has no opportunities for me now.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #806
  • Edited 4:47am Feb 8, 2011 4:45am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting Scullmeister
3648 could potentially be risky mate as 50 levels are always psychological levels so you could see a decent bounce there. Your also right near R1 and weekly pivot (just above). I suppose if your SL is a decent size you may be ok. 3660 would be more comfortable for me if a good 15min trend forms first.

Cable has no opportunities for me now.
I get what you mean, but I'm looking at R1 breaking at 3643, then entering at a 'safe' 3648
Nearly there!
  • #807
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:48am Feb 8, 2011 4:48am
Quoting forex1962
I get what you mean, but I'm looking at R1 breaking at 3643, then entering at a 'safe' 3648
Nearly there!
Ok mate, be careful of 3658 as well. Good luck
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #808
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:48am Feb 8, 2011 4:48am
Quoting Vantage
Do yourself a favour have a look at your charts (I haven't looked at yours by the way) and look for obvious SR areas that you were bumping up against, have a look at time of day and whether price struggles then in general, have a look at whether you are getting in on the 1st trade in move or the 2nd, 3rd or even worse 4th, have a look how far you are from ATR. Each trade in run makes risk of failure higher.

Cubby is a star but IMHO I'll differ with him on taking every set up. All set ups are not equal. The first set up in a session (London, US)...
Vantage,

It may be wise to check all that you are saying but the original rules don't say check S/R, ATR. Cubby actually quoted "Please do not change this method to your liking, keep it as it is."

Therefore I assume the trades taken as per rules were losers.

There have been a couple of lost trades in the last day and everyone questioning in hindsight whether it was a legit trade and doing hindsight analysis. Everyone must understand there will be losers, and I would hope anyone trading this system live has done backtesting and due dilligence.

The system may have merit and Cubbygood may have added discretionary component due to his experience, but if your trading the exact rules as explained then you have already seen there can be more than two losses in a row.

The key to the system that needs to be established is what the win % is, and avg win pips vrs avg loss in pips. If the system runs on roughly 2:1 R/R then the win % needs to be around 70%, which is a very good system in anyone's books.

I asked cubby today what his win % was for the last year and he preferred to keep that private and I have no dramas with that, but if you are trading this collate your stats in a spreadsheet to analyse once you have a number of trades to see if you have a positive expectancy.

Cheers
  • #809
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:52am Feb 8, 2011 4:52am
Quoting Scullmeister
Ok mate, be careful of 3658 as well. Good luck
Nicked 8 points now looking for a reentry
  • #810
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:56am Feb 8, 2011 4:56am
Hi Cisco

I think the points Vantage was raising are those discretionary extras which will help you tailor the system to suit your own needs.

Yes, the original rules said don't change anything, but if you noticed a set up and the price had already covered its daily range would you not prefer to have that knowledge so you could make an informed decision whether to take the trade or not?

The idea of not tweaking rules and taking every set up is in some ways important, however, if you know, through experience, that some set ups are weaker than others then you can adapt those rules and increase your success rate.

Just a thought.
  • #811
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:58am Feb 8, 2011 4:58am
Quoting Vantage
Do yourself a favour have a look at your charts (I haven't looked at yours by the way) and look for obvious SR areas that you were bumping up against, have a look at time of day and whether price struggles then in general, have a look at whether you are getting in on the 1st trade in move or the 2nd, 3rd or even worse 4th, have a look how far you are from ATR. Each trade in run makes risk of failure higher.

Cubby is a star but IMHO I'll differ with him on taking every set up. All set ups are not equal. The first set up in a session (London, US)...

yes, but all this should not matter. remember cubby has stated very clearly this method does not depend on any other factors. you just take the signals as and when they arise.

if you need to consider atr, sr points etc, then i cannot see why this system would be any different to the hundreds of other systems on forexfactory. you may as well trade any of those systems.

personally, i think this system will not make you good pips in the long run. most of cubbys trades he listed are more or less cherry picked. just have a look at the setups each day from start to finish. count the number of wins and losses you get, and you will see what i mean. iam still waiting to see concrete results from cubby for the last year or so.

not being nasty, but constructive criticism.
  • #812
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:00am Feb 8, 2011 5:00am
Quoting Delite
Hi Cisco

I think the points Vantage was raising are those discretionary extras which will help you tailor the system to suit your own needs.

Yes, the original rules said don't change anything, but if you noticed a set up and the price had already covered its daily range would you not prefer to have that knowledge so you could make an informed decision whether to take the trade or not?

The idea of not tweaking rules and taking every set up is in some ways important, however, if you know, through experience, that some set ups are weaker than others...
I agree, but don't want to!, the ideal of absolute minimum indicators appeals to me but I always find they start to sneak in, I'm not sure if thats good or not?
I think whatfx has a valid point though, it does just end up like every other system tried and discarded....
  • #813
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:05am Feb 8, 2011 5:05am
Quoting ciscosmithy
Vantage,

It may be wise to check all that you are saying but the original rules don't say check S/R, ATR. Cubby actually quoted "Please do not change this method to your liking, keep it as it is."

Therefore I assume the trades taken as per rules were losers.

There have been a couple of lost trades in the last day and everyone questioning in hindsight whether it was a legit trade and doing hindsight analysis. Everyone must understand there will be losers, and I would hope anyone trading this system live has done backtesting and due dilligence....
I hear what you are saying and apologise for my opinion. There has to be a reason why 1 person has 3 losers in a row and everyone else just seems to be making millions.

Anyone that has been around the block a while will know that and I'll bet 5c that Cubby (even if he hasn't got it down on paper) doesn't trade every set up. Even if he has amended his trading hours to fit that scenario ie to pick and trade the most likely times.

Anyway I was just trying to help someone that hadn't got it right.
  • #814
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:08am Feb 8, 2011 5:08am
Quoting ciscosmithy
Vantage,

It may be wise to check all that you are saying but the original rules don't say check S/R, ATR. Cubby actually quoted "Please do not change this method to your liking, keep it as it is."

Therefore I assume the trades taken as per rules were losers.

There have been a couple of lost trades in the last day and everyone questioning in hindsight whether it was a legit trade and doing hindsight analysis. Everyone must understand there will be losers, and I would hope anyone trading this system live has done backtesting and due dilligence.

The...
I don't quite agree: throwing away everything you know is no good.

If you read the whole thread (I think you did as I read your posts somewher), he did write reasons for trades that fail.
It is always better to start with a new trend than trying to get in later.

While I am not going to use ATR, I do use my own knowledge that I apply to this method.

The rule of all rules is to buy cheap and sell when it's more expensive. When a trade looks like the currency is cheap, I am not going to short it!!!

I would never short EURUSD at 1.1900, no matter what system or strategy would be used for that
I found a penny today. That's +100 pips for me.
  • #815
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:11am Feb 8, 2011 5:11am
Quoting Vantage
Anyone that has been around the block a while will know that and I'll bet 5c that Cubby (even if he hasn't got it down on paper) doesn't trade every set up.
He trades only 2 times per pair in a given day.
I found a penny today. That's +100 pips for me.
  • #816
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:12am Feb 8, 2011 5:12am
Quoting forex1962
I agree, but don't want to!, the ideal of absolute minimum indicators appeals to me but I always find they start to sneak in, I'm not sure if thats good or not?
I think whatfx has a valid point though, it does just end up like every other system tried and discarded....

Okay, have a look at the 123 thread I linked to yesterday. From page 2 onwards Paulus goes through how he trades this set up. He uses the 123 but only as a reversal trade, so he only takes the first retrace in any trend, therefore he doesn't run the risk of entering just as the trend is running out of steam.

He does this using only a M5 chart, no bells, no whistles, pure PA. Because he is selective, he is successful. ie he doesn't trade Asia, he doesn't trade a 123 count which happens in Frankie, he only trade reversals. In my opinion, it is these discretionary elements which make Cubby's strategy viable. As Vantage has said, he may not have some of these rules written down, but I bet subconsciously he applies some of them.

Don't give up with this, it is a good strategy, you just need to tweak it a bit, and don't take, say the fourth trade in a trend.

Good luck!
  • #817
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:13am Feb 8, 2011 5:13am
Quoting whatfx
yes, but all this should not matter. remember cubby has stated very clearly this method does not depend on any other factors. you just take the signals as and when they arise.

if you need to consider atr, sr points etc, then i cannot see why this system would be any different to the hundreds of other systems on forexfactory. you may as well trade any of those systems.

personally, i think this system will not make you good pips in the long run. most of cubbys trades he listed are more or less cherry picked. just have a look at the setups each...
Its a great system and I wouldn't have vouched for Cubby otherwise. If you are going to ignore all other aspects of trading good luck to you (don't mean that in a nasty way). You'll prob take a great system with a high % win rate to something so so. If you took absolutely every trade then there'd be millions of successful ea's out there (for this and many other systems) and no-one would have bought an ea and be disappointed.

A challenge then, have a look at the times of the day for every trade cubby has posted. Even better if they are cherry picked and only winners ie the trades may well have something in common.
  • #818
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:17am Feb 8, 2011 5:17am
Quoting Cubbybgood
wow, what happens to the thread when I leave...

I made a nice profit today guys. Sounds like there was some losses on the thread today.

My trades.

EU 70% 17 pips
GU 70% 17 pips
EU 70% 6 pips
EU 70% 10 pips

GU 30% -10
EU 30% -15
EU 30% -10
EU 30% -4

You guys are really trying to hard... keep it simple and try to control the emotions....
See this is where Cubby's experience may come in and therefore are the rules in the original posts the only ones. You mention ReaM " He trades only 2 times per pair in a given day." Yet the above post was yesterday's trades.
  • #819
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:19am Feb 8, 2011 5:19am
Quoting ReaM
He trades only 2 times per pair in a given day.
Well then exactly he doesn't trade every signal. He has whittled down to time during the day he's prepared to trade.

Again apologies for sidetracking this great thread and wonderful system.

I hope this discussion will stop, I also hope that someone looking to make a success of trading will stop and take some time to wonder what the fuss with this discussion is about.

Comments from anyone that has traded for a living for a few years welcome.
  • #820
  • Feb 8, 2011 5:19am Feb 8, 2011 5:19am
I agree with Vantage:

If you do everything Cubby does (trading times, trades per day and other rules he posted), you will have more winners. But if someone trades half an hour before London open or in dead market or tries to catch every possible set up, he will not succeed.

Those who have no luck at all: if possible start looking at charts half an hour earlier before NY open (Cubby does that) and when market opens you take two trades max. I like EU better, you can stick with one curerncy, if you get confused or something (there are often two trades at the same time, you need to see your stop, then calculate position size and only then place your order and do that for the other currency pair)
I found a penny today. That's +100 pips for me.
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