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Higher low, lower high system

  • #3,861
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:46am Feb 3, 2011 4:46am
Ok close enough... quite a bit of support down around here... +23 pips

+1.9 x risk on the trade...

Can see the previous support around here based around the previous resistance levels... not worth the risk of holding for a break...
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  • #3,862
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:58am Feb 3, 2011 7:58am
Quoting Vantage
It was the news that took it up so no entry for me.

Am thinking seriously of placing limit orders in direction of daily trend for news events. UK news generally goes in 1 direction. It seems when trend is clear as it pretty much has been for Jan to date news seems to go in direction of trend.

If anyone has solid info on this I'm listening.
Hi V like the thread have followed you and your followers for a while in the background, for news check out King FX and the SPGM method, he has an interesting take on news trading in one of his pdfs incorporating your thoughts and the 5sma
Myself I use SMA 5, 21, 65 on M15, (along with "Trade price,s" price action method) which gives you a heads up of the sma5 on the hourly and 4 hourly The idea is to trade long over 21 and 65 sloping up and vice versa.and only trade long/short above/below sma 5 on the 15m with slope
Counter trend only with plenty of separation between 5 and 21 in conjunction with H4 supply demand areas
Hope the above is of some use, Francis
  • #3,863
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:04am Feb 3, 2011 9:04am
Quoting francis2
Hi V like the thread have followed you and your followers for a while in the background, for news check out King FX and the SPGM method, he has an interesting take on news trading in one of his pdfs incorporating your thoughts and the 5sma
Myself I use SMA 5, 21, 65 on M15, (along with "Trade price,s" price action method) which gives you a heads up of the sma5 on the hourly and 4 hourly The idea is to trade long over 21 and 65 sloping up and vice versa.and only trade long/short above/below sma 5 on the 15m with slope
Counter trend only with plenty...
Thanks Francis I'll have a look.

Cheers my dad was, as he always said, Yorkshire born and proud of it!!
  • #3,864
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:40am Feb 4, 2011 3:40am
Sold gu lh 6152, will post charts just now if it follows through.
  • #3,865
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:01am Feb 4, 2011 4:01am
Quoting Vantage
Sold gu lh 6152, will post charts just now if it follows through.
I know Y closed a shooting star and this thing is prob going lower but we have hit 25 psych level target. On NFP day we are happy with that and are prob finished now until after that news is out.

1hr shooting star, 15 min neg close, 5 min lh little/no lower wick. 15 min also was an evening star pattern which is one I like.

I did miss the double top sell around 6160 with CII divergence on 5 min.
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  • #3,866
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:03am Feb 4, 2011 4:03am
Quoting francis2
Hi V like the thread have followed you and your followers for a while in the background, for news check out King FX and the SPGM method, he has an interesting take on news trading in one of his pdfs incorporating your thoughts and the 5sma
Myself I use SMA 5, 21, 65 on M15, (along with "Trade price,s" price action method) which gives you a heads up of the sma5 on the hourly and 4 hourly The idea is to trade long over 21 and 65 sloping up and vice versa.and only trade long/short above/below sma 5 on the 15m with slope
Counter trend only with plenty...
Interesting 5 sma and 8 lwma I use are about the same, very close. I will be looking for trades on say 1 hr pull back to its 8 lwma and how 5 min reacts. Maybe something can develop from there.
  • #3,867
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:06am Feb 4, 2011 4:06am
Ooops forget to highlight the candle I took entry on.

There are a couple of threads that are trading break of 2 point as entry. In this case it would be 6151. Mrs V and I are discussing whether we should wait when our entry is close to that level, no decisions as yet.
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  • #3,868
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:15am Feb 7, 2011 5:15am
Mrs V got this one. Sell 6147.

1hr upper wicks, 15 min neg closes, 5 min shooting star lh little/no lower wick. Exited at 25 psych level.

PS Not going to dark side with indi's, there is an outside chance Mrs V may be doing the bulk of trading in a few months. I wanted her to have something a little more visually specific. MACD risk 3 TF's is what I came up with hence that thread.

Not sure yet which thread will survive!!
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  • #3,869
  • Feb 7, 2011 3:23pm Feb 7, 2011 3:23pm
i was just thinking ... since you follow the direction of the 1hr candle ...doesnt this mean that there is a new trend every hour ?

Or does the trend only change once the current 1hr candle has closed above or below the high/low of the previous 1hr candle ?
  • #3,870
  • Feb 8, 2011 1:03am Feb 8, 2011 1:03am
Hi Vantage,

a question for you:

how do you decide whether the breakout of the asian session is a fakehead (and look for a reversal entry trigger) OR genuine (and look to enter in the same direction)?

thanks.
  • #3,871
  • Edited 1:28am Feb 8, 2011 1:13am | Edited 1:28am
Quoting dan89
i was just thinking ... since you follow the direction of the 1hr candle ...doesnt this mean that there is a new trend every hour ?

Or does the trend only change once the current 1hr candle has closed above or below the high/low of the previous 1hr candle ?
Potentially there is a new trend but if you avoid LO headfakes and trade certain times of the day then actually theres not that much change. Certainly theres enough continuation to get solid trades on most days.

Have a look at this chart and focus on either of 2 things. The macd red/green or above/below the 8 lwma. Add in some good candles to help put the odds in your favour.
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  • #3,872
  • Feb 8, 2011 1:27am Feb 8, 2011 1:27am
Quoting pgd
Hi Vantage,

a question for you:

how do you decide whether the breakout of the asian session is a fakehead (and look for a reversal entry trigger) OR genuine (and look to enter in the same direction)?

thanks.
Its actually difficult to answer. Candles help, 1hr hl/lh's help, hopefully reading pa right helps.

Example, if trending up I'd prefer to see head fake down and then look to buy and vice versa. Y's massive 1hr shooting star kept me away from a nice little buy but then Mrs V got a sell which we were expecting.

We work on the basis that the odds are massively in our favour for a headfake of sorts and go from there.

Of course that does mean that we do sometimes miss out completely on a move and have to either try and grab something in the middle or wait for US to turn.

My patience has improved a lot lately, not sure what the reason for that is. Anyway if we feel we have missed out near start of move we'll look to trade direction from a reversal as normal or a break of 2 point in 1 2 3 set up. There are 2 threads (see links in MACD risk 3 TF's thread) that are doing a really good job of showing these set ups. As mentioned if all else fails then we'll wait for early US or post news US.

Then if all really fails we'll say toughies we missed out today, no worries, more chances tomorrow.
  • #3,873
  • Edited 2:27am Feb 8, 2011 2:13am | Edited 2:27am
Quoting Vantage
Its actually difficult to answer. Candles help, 1hr hl/lh's help, hopefully reading pa right helps.

Example, if trending up I'd prefer to see head fake down and then look to buy and vice versa. Y's massive 1hr shooting star kept me away from a nice little buy but then Mrs V got a sell which we were expecting.

We work on the basis that the odds are massively in our favour for a headfake of sorts and go from there.

Of course that does mean that we do sometimes miss out completely on a move and have to either try and grab something in...
Vantage,

This is what happened to me a short while ago:

I saw what I thought was setting up as a 2B type short entry like yest. I placed the entry and s/l orders as indicated and was soon stopped out.

where did i go wrong?

thanks.
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  • #3,874
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:29am Feb 8, 2011 2:29am
Quoting pgd
Vantage,

This is what happened to me a short while age:

I saw what I thought ws setting up as a 2B type short entry like yest. I placed the entry and s/l orders as indicated and was soon stopped out.

where did i go wrong?

thanks.
Hi pgd
Thats very tough luck, good candle reversal, sell divergence also, 1hr upper wicks. The only thing I can say is that we are very careful about trading the initial candle in Frankies hour we have been bitten so many times we don't even try. Like the odds of a LO head fake happening we don't like the odds of trading the initial FH candle.

There are some that say trade every set up you'll miss good trades. We are firmly of the opinion that we will absolutely not trade certain times and are quite happy to miss some set ups, yes we miss some good trades but we also avoid many losing trades.

A final point IF you do have a loss but believe your set up then get in again. GU tried 1 more time to go up and failed with an evening star pattern (love that one). We have eur up and missed it (forex gods can be cruel some times). Eur sell not triggered and time will tell if she's going to go up in line with D doji.
  • #3,875
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:35am Feb 8, 2011 3:35am
And of course some days just bite you in the bum.

I was on the phone Mrs V got distracted and this lh was missed. A real pain when what we were obviously waiting for in light of LO head fake and numerous 1hr upper wicks happens. C'est la vie but not the end of the world though.

Mrs V all is forgiven.

So for the record we missed this but 1hr upper wicks, 15 min doji/inside bar, 5 min lh little/no lower wick.
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  • #3,876
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:38am Feb 8, 2011 3:38am
Yo Dave how's it going... Can you pull up a chart of the pound daily and give me your analysis. Does this represent a top pattern to you?
  • #3,877
  • Edited 4:10am Feb 8, 2011 3:56am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting Musashi
Yo Dave how's it going... Can you pull up a chart of the pound daily and give me your analysis. Does this represent a top pattern to you?
Hey M always good, could of course be better this am with 30 pips in the bank but like I said no worries!!

COT, big boys seem to have been flippin around last few weeks but latest to me suggests they are long gbp and short $. I'm not a COT expert though.

GU has obvious SR areas (6268 and 6042) and we are right on one now. Hammer/shooting star suggests some major indecision. MACD histo and divergence did suggest down.

OK one of those situations where (for me) you could argue both ways.

Divergence, histo, and shooting star indicates down.

We are right on a S level (going back to Oct) with Y's low and gu so far getting a good bounce from there. Y's low was well short of D ATR, we were well short of ATR again today and bouncing from that level. This gives me some doubts about going lower with COT suggesting up.

A very indecisive area. A classic TWT situation and one where if we had 30 pips in bank I'd take that and wait to see what US brings.

Hope this helps. Clear as mud to me, could go either way.
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  • #3,878
  • Feb 8, 2011 4:02am Feb 8, 2011 4:02am
Quoting Vantage

Hope this helps. Clear as mud to me, could go either way.
If we carry on getting lower bounces over next few hours that would suggest 6080 will fail, I'll be watching 1hr candles closely.

1hr hammer just closed so theres obviously some buying down here. Lack of follow though on a hammer will not be good for bulls.
  • #3,879
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:13am Feb 8, 2011 7:13am
GU-M5

shorted at 1.6092 below that bearish engulfer on 1.6100.

edit:
exit1 1.6072 (S1)
  • #3,880
  • Feb 8, 2011 7:14am Feb 8, 2011 7:14am
As mentioned earlier watch pa as we approached the S level. Just sold here due to the lower highs and completely different pa now compared to this am. Stop now at BE, +10.
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