Order Flow - Achieving the mindset | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mindset Mindset Mindset!!! 19 replies

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

Maintain Your Mindset, by Linda Bradford Raschke 3 replies

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset - Part 2 37 replies

A new mindset 0 replies

Attachments: Order Flow - Achieving the mindset
Exit Attachments

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #221
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:05am Feb 7, 2011 11:05am
As an example of something that can impact order flow, a couple hours ago IFR said there is a large 82.25 option rolling off tomorrow.

Since we have already seen price on both sides of that level today, does that mean that there probably aren't orders around there anymore, or this option still significant and affecting order flow?
  • #222
  • Edited 1:22pm Feb 7, 2011 12:15pm | Edited 1:22pm
Hey Carnegie don't discount the news in the Euro of the BIS (bank of international settlement) participation. Currently fading long to there level. We have reached the level. Also don't overlook the european wrap, Talk of buy orders down at 1.3500, your even number. And is the BIS really finished with there business?? Don't know but could have been leaking bad news to load up at the lower discount price today.

Cheers.
  • #223
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:49pm Feb 7, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting Carnegie
Take care lads, looking forward to your ideas and comments.
The first thing that came to mind when I saw the chart was "why sell after so much selling already?"

I have not made it all the way through T&E yet, and I am sure my ignorance on order flow will shine through here, but it seems that the place to sell was somewhere up around the 3620 handle.

I'm having a hard time articulating why I think that was a good place to sell in terms of market participants and what they might have been doing. I sold from 3610 based on what I was seeing on the 3 hour chart, and bought back at 3550.

I'm not going to post a chart, because my trade had nothing to do with order flow per say, but I did look at the 3hr and saw that consolidation a few days back, fake break to the top and then drop, and then price was back in that area and just had a feeling that a sell was a good high probability idea from there.

I have some ideas on why I think that happened in terms of players and order flow but frankly I'm a bit nervous to post because I am probably way off on my analysis in regards to order flow.
  • #224
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:21pm Feb 7, 2011 2:21pm
Hey guys,

It's been a while since I've been able to contribute, as mid-terms, assignments and other obligations seem to be the bane of my existence. These past few days away from the charts, have been quite refreshing and as per grkfx's advice, I have been able to identify additional order flow generators, to the point where I have a list that would keep me quite occupied for some time to come. The interesting thing is that in each of these scenarios, there is no one way to go about trading them. You simply side with those who are 'showing their hands' (that's the best way I can describe it) and saddle along for the ride.

With regard to your chart Carnegie, while your micro-analysis of the participants in the market and their actions is quite impressive, may I suggest that you take a small step back and view your chart from another angle.

Looking at it, I see the following notable events, in chronological order:

 

  1. 8:00 - Strong rejection of the 1.3625 area
  2. 9:00 - Price strongly rejects the 1.3585 area
  3. 9:50 - Price rejects the 1.3625 area once more (perhaps you can make an inference as to why this may have been happening)
  4. 10:20 - Price rejects the 1.3585 area once more (again, perhaps you can make an inference as to why this is occurring)
  5. 10:50 - We have a stall in price in the 1.3605-1.3600 region.

At this point, this stall in momentum, which could signal a potential change in the battle, we can ask ourselves, if there are participants in this skirmish who can get squeezed, where would they be positioned? More so, can you make an educated guess as to where would they be financially willing to dispose of their position and call it quits, and what effect the execution of those orders would have on price?

After the stall, price slowly begins to show the possibility of a convincing downward move. In your shoes, I would have entered around 11:05-11:10, and waited for what I think should be a high probability outcome.

But your micro-market analysis has me thinking of so many different ways to take advantage of the situation it's not even funny..I wish I could stay and expound, but this week is going to be treacherous, but if I survive you'll definitely be hearing from me towards the end.

Again, just my humble opinion,

EDIT: I managed to glance at a chart recently and saw the move down and stall near 1.3505, and coupled with the time thought, wow - if only I was done with my midterms I would have been able to make some pretty % gain on my account!

Let's keep up the discussion guys - truly A+ material.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

  • #225
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:37pm Feb 7, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting relyt
As an example of something that can impact order flow, a couple hours ago IFR said there is a large 82.25 option rolling off tomorrow.

Since we have already seen price on both sides of that level today, does that mean that there probably aren't orders around there anymore, or this option still significant and affecting order flow?
Hey mate I have no idea about options. In the past any mention of options I've noticed is usually met by a deafening silence. Either people around here generally don't know or they're just not talking

But LOTS of volume building up around that level now. Either way one gets the impression its gonna move big one way or the other from that very spot.

BTW what does it mean by "there is a large 82.25 option rolling off tomorrow"...? This is where I show my ignorance.

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #226
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:45pm Feb 7, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey mate I have no idea about options. In the past any mention of options I've noticed is usually met by a deafening silence. Either people around here generally don't know or they're just not talking

But LOTS of volume building up around that level now
Thanks, Cindy. I have posted quite a few of my thoughts/questions about option barriers (in this thread, in other threads, and I even started a thread about it) but there has been no reply or very little reply. That tells me I’m either way off track or no one wants to help me out (which I would understand, since no one here owes me anything).

What do you mean when you say "LOTS of volume building up around that level now"? What do you see that indicates significant volume at that level?
  • #227
  • Feb 7, 2011 2:51pm Feb 7, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting relyt

What do you mean when you say "LOTS of volume building up around that level now"? What do you see that indicates significant volume at that level?
Even without my a feed open right now its obvious that lots of orders are piling up there becasue its consolidating trough the high volume sessions of London and US.

Id take a stab without looking and say that the most money (volume) is on 82.350. The only thing that can make price sit still like that is lots of liquidity and hence $$$$
Time hides Nothing
  • #228
  • Edited 4:20pm Feb 7, 2011 4:09pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey mate I have no idea about options. In the past any mention of options I've noticed is usually met by a deafening silence. Either people around here generally don't know or they're just not talking

But LOTS of volume building up around that level now. Either way one gets the impression its gonna move big one way or the other from that very spot.

BTW what does it mean by "there is a large 82.25 option rolling off tomorrow"...? This is where I show my ignorance.

Cheers

After watching the IFR for awhile now, they talk of large options and what not... If there is a large option at a level and nothing else significant going on, price will naturally be attracted to this level and gyrate around it until it expires or "rolls off" usually at the 10am cut NY or until the liquidity is gone at this level after there is more pressure one way or the other, or... they want to squeeze the bullshit rumor?? This is what I have seen in my experience.

There are all kinds of options, standard vanilla, exotics, etc....

I like when I get word on exotics like barriers, knock-in's/knock out's/reverse knock out's, digitals, etc....

Even if it's all bullshit.. they put the word out for a reason, so use it for what it's worth.
  • #229
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:23pm Feb 7, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
With regard to your chart Carnegie, while your micro-analysis of the participants in the market and their actions is quite impressive, may I suggest that you take a small step back and view your chart from another angle.
Hey trizzle.. I can to a certain degree agree with you. It seems like I moved to fast and tried to incorporate game theory in my thinking that's why it all went wrong. My thinking was that the buyers at 1.36 +-20 pips were going to close their positions and the implications of that on the market.

It was a very interesting trade though, I am happy I took it.
  • #230
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:29pm Feb 7, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting Monroe
After watching the IFR for awhile now, they talk of large options and what not... If there is a large option at a level and nothing else significant going on, price will naturally be attracted to this level and gyrate around it until it expires or "rolls off" usually at the 10am cut NY or until the liquidity is gone at this level after there is more pressure one way or the other, or... they want to squeeze the bullshit rumor?? This is what I have seen in my experience.

There are all kinds of options, standard vanilla, exotics, etc....

I like...
Thanks Monroe and Cindy. At least now I know that I'm not crazy (and not being ignored, haha).

I appreciate your input. It seems like the exotics (barriers, knock-in's/knock out's/reverse knock out's, digitals, etc.) generate more activity, but maybe even the large vanilla options will show some promise, also.
  • #231
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:35pm Feb 7, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting relyt
Thanks Monroe and Cindy. At least now I know that I'm not crazy (and not being ignored, haha).

I appreciate your input. It seems like the exotics (barriers, knock-in's/knock out's/reverse knock out's, digitals, etc.) generate more activity, but maybe even the large vanilla options will show some promise, also.
Hey tyler (I assume thats your name),

Don't ever feel as if you are ignored.. We're all asking our questions and hoping for answers!

PS. I thought vanillas in FX were unusual? Interesting thing this with options etc.. but I want to save that until later in my studies.. until I "know" more that is. But definitely a nice subejct, keep studying!!

Take care
  • #232
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:37pm Feb 7, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting relyt
As an example of something that can impact order flow, a couple hours ago IFR said there is a large 82.25 option rolling off tomorrow.

Since we have already seen price on both sides of that level today, does that mean that there probably aren't orders around there anymore, or this option still significant and affecting order flow?
Ah hell, I overlooked the news and after the fact I read rumour that there was a Double No-Touch Option in EURO due 2/7/11 today price 1.35/1.40. Most likely why it turned above 1.35. Definition from member birkz," It gives profit to investor if price of the underlying asset does not reach or surpass one of the two predetermined barrier levels. DNT are used during consolidation phase." Boy this flow shit is really strung together.
Anyhow I seen the IFR news of the 82.25 option and I haven't been able to find anymore info on it. But looking on the chart it doesn't appear to be an exocite option because price has straddled both sides. Usually if they are in play price comes to the line and does not cross. Hopefully if I am wrong I hope someone will correct this, I hate to be giving bad info. Of course hopefully we will see more info within the next hours. This is another aspect that I have been digging into with the order flow stuff.
  • #233
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:46pm Feb 7, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting relyt
Thanks Monroe and Cindy. At least now I know that I'm not crazy (and not being ignored, haha).

I appreciate your input. It seems like the exotics (barriers, knock-in's/knock out's/reverse knock out's, digitals, etc.) generate more activity, but maybe even the large vanilla options will show some promise, also.
No problem. Yes I believe you're correct. You see the maturity calendar and they update it through out the day. If you see a large vanilla AND price is near the strike, watch how it behaves... say it's heading up towards one, they might sell as it approaches, reload and buy back lower, sell and buy back again, stuff like this... this same thing would happen at a barrier.

Watch the reactions of long's/shorts, think where people are positioned, and anticipate the reactions.

Also... you'll most likely get word on the exotics outside the calendar during the day, so watch for that.
  • #234
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:54pm Feb 7, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting Monroe
Also... you'll most likely get word on the exotics outside the calendar during the day, so watch for that.

Great info from everyone here. Thanks to each of you (Carnegie, Louie, Cindy, Monroe, etc.)

Quoting Louie
I overlooked the news and after the fact I read rumour that there was a Double No-Touch Option in EURO due 2/7/11 today price 1.35/1.40.
Hm, I missed that one, also. Where did you see it? IFR, or elsewhere?
  • #235
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:09pm Feb 7, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting relyt
Hm, I missed that one, also. Where did you see it? IFR, or elsewhere?

Never mind, it looks like you found it on forexlive. That's too bad. I read the headline of that post but I didn't read all the way to the end of it where it mentioned the rumored 1.35/1.40 DNT. Oh well, live and learn.
  • #236
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:17pm Feb 7, 2011 5:17pm
Something just hit me..

What are the implications on price and order flow if a big dealer or market maker sits on wrong inventory? With wrong inventory I mean is sitting on heavy bids or LONG inventory as the market is moving down
  • #237
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:19pm Feb 7, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting Carnegie
Something just hit me..

What are the implications on price and order flow if a big dealer or market maker sits on wrong inventory? With wrong inventory I mean is sitting on heavy bids or LONG inventory as the market is moving down
You sure you didn't read that in T&E he talks about that a lot
Time hides Nothing
  • #238
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:24pm Feb 7, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
You sure you didn't read that in T&E he talks about that a lot
Hey cindy,

Yeah I saw that as I was moving thru the book but I'm not at dealer chapter yet where I know it is.. I was thinking more about what UP told me to focus about.
I don't know if I am rational now but I get the feeling that IF a MM has an imbalance in inventory that will cause massive order flow because other participants will be "dragged" into it..
Hmm maybe I don't know what I am talking about now but it needs a thinker..

Let's say other MMs dealers etc know that this particular dealer has imbalance in inventory.. In my head that is a fucking massive squeeze on his ass (IF the market knows abuot it) or?

Take care.
  • #239
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:11pm Feb 7, 2011 7:11pm
What IU'd like to know if anyone cares to answer is what is the "flow" behind situations where EVERY currecy is moving in the same direction... Like EUR/SD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD ALL mvoing in the same direction. How is this even possible? and What is the logic behind it..

I also posted this question http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...69&postcount=1

which was along similar lines but never got an answer. I feel its important to understand this but I just can't find an answer anywhere
Time hides Nothing
  • #240
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:12pm Feb 7, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Spot on - It doesn't matter if the market know about it or not. If he gets caught on the wrong side and hes left holding the bag hes fked! Their job is to not let this happen, but I hate sounding like I think I know what I'm talking about lol - this is my interpretation anyway
I was thinking about this a lot while reading the dealers chapter this weekend. What I could not reconcile in my mind is how this works in the fx market, where there are several dealers setting market prices (correct assumption?). We know if there are multiple dealers dealing similar instruments (in fx case identical), their bid and ask quotes have to be close to each other, otherwise arbitrageurs would take advantage of the differences between dealers (correct assumption?).

If this is the case, how is it possible that 1 dealer could be stuck on the wrong side of the market and manipulate prices to get himself balanced before moving back in the right direction? Maybe the dealers work together?

I don't know enough about dealers in the fx market (the real market) yet to answer this question, but it's on my list
0 traders viewing now