Thanks hcon.
IS DBFX part of Deutche Bank?
IS DBFX part of Deutche Bank?
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #22,806
- Feb 7, 2011 4:28am Feb 7, 2011 4:28am
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,006 Posts
Hi All
Attached is the lecture by Luang Por Jarun (a well respected meditation master from Singburi, Thailand) on the benefits of chanting Buddhaguna & Vipassana meditation.
In a nutshell, Vipassana is constantly being aware of every thoughts, actions, speech etc
So when u r trading be aware that u r trading NOW
Pip Well
Philip
and Pipsqueak!
Some time ago there were discussions about whether trading pre-supposes prediction. Just came across these interesting posts in my re-reading of the thread:
Question by Woopypooky http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2022851&postcount=2838
how to dance with the market and not predicting?
I understood one of the technique used to dance were compound bar charts formations.
But isnt bar charts/candlestick formations are predictive as well? like when we see 3 black crows or a reversal bar and then we put in the attack/rescue troops, we are actually anticipating that a reversal/continuation will happen. But since a reversal bar doesnt always reverse the price, doesn't it mean we are (predicting/hoping) for it to reverse when we buy? Afterall trading is about probabilities right?
Ans from Zenseven: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2022944&postcount=2839
woopypooky:
Please keep in mind that it does not anticipate,
you need to watch all volatility, speed of market
all kind of PA alltogether will give you feeling.
But anyway it is not prediction, because
YOU ARE ALWAYS WRONG TILL MARKET PROVES YOU RIGHT
Please read any research book about tech analysis with stats. It always shows that price movement has implied probability to go north or south. but it is probability not 100%
So ONE needs to MANAGE HIS POSITIONS actively to get right results
ans from fti: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2024378&postcount=2847
Hi woopypooky,
What zenseven replied to you is very valid. That should be your basic frame of mind.
As i do believe non of us have the crystal ball nor the time travel machine, it is impossible to predict the outcome of any positions. Best we can do is to manage it. To rescue if when in trouble, to attack when victory is easy and to throe in the towel if necessary, if position becomes "dead".
So if you understand the mindset, your position must not give you confidence when right, nor despair when wrong, you have to manage it as per what is happening in the market now, and now keeps changing as time forwards, and yor strategies have to be adjusted to the changing market , only mindset holds firm. Therefore as per your example, if you see the 3 crows, you may want to initiate some position, however its what the market does after you're position that determines your forward strategies, not the crows any more, they are history. New developments will tell you what you must do to be profitable.
Probabilities won't make you money , only tells you odds. Its your strategic reaction to market conditions that can make you money and your ability to keep in rhythm.
On the flip, odds mostly will serve to harden your ability to feel and may make you candidates for pain threshold tests. Try to stay nimble, but focused on the dance. Remember, rigidity kills. (fti comments on rigidity often, this is the first I learn it can kill, sure made an impression on Mamood-Barbie
)
You can chose to make the price patterns predictive indications, or you can use them as hints for strategic reaction, it depends on your mindset.
Post about market calls http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2024246&postcount=2844
Hi ALL,
So many questions, I will answer them one by one slowly, as I am sort of drained now and am capitalising on the realignment to selling USD positions now.
When I prompted on the USD strength, please do not think that I am giving predictions.
I was just prompting from my position.
Evidently , if you had, danced the PA you would have picked up good trading opportunities on the bull USD.. However , as I will not be calling in all my actions ( as I cannot hand hold anyone while actively managing my own exposures), no one should follow my trading, rather you should think , if what you feel from the rhythm is in line with what I said. Moreover you have to dance as best to your financial status. You are in the deep end, so analyse , think then strategise your own MO.
Tired as I am I would like to highligh something , which I had alwaysbeen trying to encourage. And the opportunity has arisen for me to present it again.
Remember , that to trade profitably , you must as atrader , think, as that is your learning curve. Then making good use of your skills and talent is important. If you like the following story , say very well all that I had been trying to present.
http://www.asiaone.com/Just%2BWoman/...528-67412.html
(blind 5 year old playing piano)
Regards,
Baifu
Forex data:
I am too cheap to pay for subscription data as I reckon I am only trading the brokers market – I look at 3 broker feeds: Interactive Brokers (ECN I guess), Oanada (variable spread) and Saxo (fixed spread), I regard their charts occasional divergence as normal since they represent different local markets. I do think IB (unlike Oanda and Saxo) send orders onwards to their liquidity providers. A couple of years ago I paid for a subscription data service to get historical Forex data and noticed they diverge somewhat from IB data (especially in the non-majors) although they both claim to come from a chain of banks, different banks I guess.
Question by Woopypooky http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2022851&postcount=2838
how to dance with the market and not predicting?
I understood one of the technique used to dance were compound bar charts formations.
But isnt bar charts/candlestick formations are predictive as well? like when we see 3 black crows or a reversal bar and then we put in the attack/rescue troops, we are actually anticipating that a reversal/continuation will happen. But since a reversal bar doesnt always reverse the price, doesn't it mean we are (predicting/hoping) for it to reverse when we buy? Afterall trading is about probabilities right?
Ans from Zenseven: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2022944&postcount=2839
woopypooky:
Please keep in mind that it does not anticipate,
you need to watch all volatility, speed of market
all kind of PA alltogether will give you feeling.
But anyway it is not prediction, because
YOU ARE ALWAYS WRONG TILL MARKET PROVES YOU RIGHT
Please read any research book about tech analysis with stats. It always shows that price movement has implied probability to go north or south. but it is probability not 100%
So ONE needs to MANAGE HIS POSITIONS actively to get right results
ans from fti: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2024378&postcount=2847
Hi woopypooky,
What zenseven replied to you is very valid. That should be your basic frame of mind.
As i do believe non of us have the crystal ball nor the time travel machine, it is impossible to predict the outcome of any positions. Best we can do is to manage it. To rescue if when in trouble, to attack when victory is easy and to throe in the towel if necessary, if position becomes "dead".
So if you understand the mindset, your position must not give you confidence when right, nor despair when wrong, you have to manage it as per what is happening in the market now, and now keeps changing as time forwards, and yor strategies have to be adjusted to the changing market , only mindset holds firm. Therefore as per your example, if you see the 3 crows, you may want to initiate some position, however its what the market does after you're position that determines your forward strategies, not the crows any more, they are history. New developments will tell you what you must do to be profitable.
Probabilities won't make you money , only tells you odds. Its your strategic reaction to market conditions that can make you money and your ability to keep in rhythm.
On the flip, odds mostly will serve to harden your ability to feel and may make you candidates for pain threshold tests. Try to stay nimble, but focused on the dance. Remember, rigidity kills. (fti comments on rigidity often, this is the first I learn it can kill, sure made an impression on Mamood-Barbie
)You can chose to make the price patterns predictive indications, or you can use them as hints for strategic reaction, it depends on your mindset.
Post about market calls http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2024246&postcount=2844
Hi ALL,
So many questions, I will answer them one by one slowly, as I am sort of drained now and am capitalising on the realignment to selling USD positions now.
When I prompted on the USD strength, please do not think that I am giving predictions.
I was just prompting from my position.
Evidently , if you had, danced the PA you would have picked up good trading opportunities on the bull USD.. However , as I will not be calling in all my actions ( as I cannot hand hold anyone while actively managing my own exposures), no one should follow my trading, rather you should think , if what you feel from the rhythm is in line with what I said. Moreover you have to dance as best to your financial status. You are in the deep end, so analyse , think then strategise your own MO.
Tired as I am I would like to highligh something , which I had alwaysbeen trying to encourage. And the opportunity has arisen for me to present it again.
Remember , that to trade profitably , you must as atrader , think, as that is your learning curve. Then making good use of your skills and talent is important. If you like the following story , say very well all that I had been trying to present.
http://www.asiaone.com/Just%2BWoman/...528-67412.html
(blind 5 year old playing piano)
Regards,
Baifu
Forex data:
I am too cheap to pay for subscription data as I reckon I am only trading the brokers market – I look at 3 broker feeds: Interactive Brokers (ECN I guess), Oanada (variable spread) and Saxo (fixed spread), I regard their charts occasional divergence as normal since they represent different local markets. I do think IB (unlike Oanda and Saxo) send orders onwards to their liquidity providers. A couple of years ago I paid for a subscription data service to get historical Forex data and noticed they diverge somewhat from IB data (especially in the non-majors) although they both claim to come from a chain of banks, different banks I guess.
- #22,810
- Feb 7, 2011 12:32pm Feb 7, 2011 12:32pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #22,812
- Feb 7, 2011 12:59pm Feb 7, 2011 12:59pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #22,814
- Feb 7, 2011 1:09pm Feb 7, 2011 1:09pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #22,816
- Feb 7, 2011 1:16pm Feb 7, 2011 1:16pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #22,817
- Feb 7, 2011 1:28pm Feb 7, 2011 1:28pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #22,819
- Feb 7, 2011 1:33pm Feb 7, 2011 1:33pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]