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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,501
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:37pm Feb 6, 2011 8:37pm
selling is a bad idea ....

here is the reason why ...2 ultra high volume down bars noted ... 1.3630 is key now but also 1.3600

If the nfp day was sellers why the hell did we end up ONLY 40 pip under Thursdays lows on ultra high vol...common sense really

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu82.png Size: 187 KB




Buy dip Unless Fridays lows taken out , liekly target by end of Monday (Tuesday start London ) is 1.3700 to 1.3750






shake out under Thursday low that already had potential stopping now we are above that in asia .. look for testing 1.3600 in London for move back to 1.3700





Quoting A-speculator
yups, it's not a bad place indeed, but bare in mind that if you take that price, you have to expect drawdown up to 3720 area. If you don't mind that, well i guess it's ok, but to me, better wait first, at least enter at about 3660.. at least that will minimize the drawdown, better late than sorry.. IMHO.

It's ok if you miss the train but definitely not ok if you find you in the wrong train. Cheers.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,502
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:41pm Feb 6, 2011 8:41pm
This is my attempt to understand Volume with respect to what price is doing.

Sorry for all the charts.
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  • #11,503
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:42pm Feb 6, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
selling is a bad idea ....

here is the reason why ...2 ultra high volume down bars noted ... 1.3630 is key now but also 1.3600

If the nfp day was sellers why the hell did we end up ONLY 40 pip under Thursdays lows on ultra high vol...common sense really

Attachment



Buy dip Unless Fridays lows taken out , liekly target by end of Monday (Tuesday start London ) is 1.3700 to 1.3750






shake out under Thursday low that already had potential stopping now we are above that in asia .. look for testing 1.3600 in London for move back...
Didn't I say that the resistance area is at about 3720 malc? I know it will retrace up but it will be limited to that area, because I'm not a daytrader, I won't take long, but will wait to see weakness at about that area to add to my current position. By the way, I think cable will be limited to at about 6130, what do you think?
  • #11,504
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:48pm Feb 6, 2011 8:48pm
Quoting Musashi
This is my attempt to understand Volume with respect to what price is doing.

Sorry for all the charts.

By far the highest volume bar for the day so far.
  • #11,505
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:50pm Feb 6, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting A-speculator
Didn't I say that the resistance area is at about 3720 malc? I know it will retrace up but it will be limited to that area, because I'm not a daytrader, I won't take long, but will wait to see weakness at about that area to add to my current position. By the way, I think cable will be limited to at about 6130, what do you think?
Maybe NFP doesn't have that much impact on fiber, but look at what it did to other pairs, namely the swissy, candy and usdjpy.. I think usd has found some momentum to the upside.. Please do correct me if I'm wrong, my friend..
  • #11,506
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:54pm Feb 6, 2011 8:54pm
Thank you Mal for posting it up, I've learned a lot from your post
Thxxxxx
  • #11,507
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:01pm Feb 6, 2011 9:01pm
And also, I think, we will see a significant movement to the upside for the yen pairs (UJ,EJ and GJ) due to the losing interest in security/the opportunity from the higher yield assets. And from the daily and weekly chart for the yen pairs, I think there's already a loss in selling pressure/currently in the accumulation phase. However, the breakout will be determined by the uj first, IMHO. Please do comment regarding this too malc..
  • #11,508
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:08pm Feb 6, 2011 9:08pm
Attached is the chart for the yen pairs. forgot to attach in my previous post. Sorry guys.
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  • #11,509
  • Edited Feb 7, 2011 1:49am Feb 6, 2011 9:18pm | Edited Feb 7, 2011 1:49am
I suspect EU coming into a large supply area on the chart.
  • #11,510
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:22pm Feb 6, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Musashi
I suspect EU coming into a large supply area on the chart.
Take aussie or kiwi mate if you want to enter short atm.. i think it will be more safer.. I think the kiwi will be limited to the low 7700 area and the aussie at about 1.0140 area. Cheers bro.
  • #11,511
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:22pm Feb 6, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Musashi
I suspect EU coming into a large supply area on the chart.
Watch for No Supply bars in that area, If Long ..


Hitting the sheets....

Good Luck !!!

  • #11,512
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:29pm Feb 6, 2011 9:29pm
Here's my chart for aussie and kiwi. My entry points are the resistance, so if that holds, i guess it will be for me.. . So, cut off the pos if the resistance breaks.. Until it does, i guess I will hold it for the time being.
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  • #11,513
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:32pm Feb 6, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting A-speculator
Take aussie or kiwi mate if you want to enter short atm.. i think it will be more safer.. I think the kiwi will be limited to the low 7700 area and the aussie at about 1.0140 area. Cheers bro.
M30 Bearish Outside Bar.

Don't know if you consider that a good sign for a possible short position.

25 level holding it down for the moment.
  • #11,514
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:38pm Feb 6, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting Musashi
M30 Bearish Outside Bar.

Don't know if you consider that a good sign for a possible short position.

25 level holding it down for the moment.
Which pair bro? is it the aussie? the position was taken based on last high for aussie and hammer at weekly for the kiwi. Let me show you. And the daily formation for aussie also show that it is possible to enter short pos.

Please bare in mind that I'm not a daytrader and perhaps my setup might not satisfy your way of trading. Nonetheless, that is my current view of the market for both pair. My current strategy is sell on recovery for the pairs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,515
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:50pm Feb 6, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting A-speculator
Which pair bro? is it the aussie? the position was taken based on last high for aussie and hammer at weekly for the kiwi. Let me show you. And the daily formation for aussie also show that it is possible to enter short pos.

Please bare in mind that I'm not a daytrader and perhaps my setup might not satisfy your way of trading. Nonetheless, that is my current view of the market for both pair. My current strategy is sell on recovery for the pairs.
I'm looking at the EU pair.

Price has pulled right back to previous range on the chart.

Supply zone or not, only time will tell with some more resistance candles.
  • #11,516
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:53pm Feb 6, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting Musashi
I'm looking at the EU pair.

Price has pulled right back to previous range on the chart.

Supply zone or not, only time will tell with some more resistance candles.
Based on 4h candles for eu, price still does nothing, I would open short if I find weakness at 3720 area. If I am to open a position, i'll wait, I would not open in the middle of a move..

In 4h, there's still no sign of weakness yet.
  • #11,517
  • Feb 6, 2011 10:18pm Feb 6, 2011 10:18pm
What's interest me currently is the cable compared to fiber.. I love to see how price reacts around 6130 area (which currently where the price is).. I suspect there will be a move to the downside at about that area based on the daily candles. It's Monday by the way, donno will it have momentum today or not, but that price really interest me..

Ok guys, so long. Happy trading everyone. Green pips to all of us hopefully.

See u all later.
  • #11,518
  • Feb 6, 2011 11:06pm Feb 6, 2011 11:06pm
Quoting Musashi
I've been watching the Volume indicator on my Range Bar Chart so far this morning trying to get a feel for what it might be telling me.

Could some one please explain something to me.

Increased Volume evident at a 1.3600 level on EU indicate selling or buying volume?

If the two previous bullish bars are decreasing in volume and the current open bar is the highest volume bar for the day so far.
Hi Musashi,

I am curious on how you use range bars, and what are the advantages and disadvantages you have found in using range bars ?

Also for VSA, normally there is looking at narrow spread bars or wide spread bars.
In VSA terms, how would you look at this narrow spread and wide spreads when range bars only give you a constant width spread ?
  • #11,519
  • Feb 6, 2011 11:19pm Feb 6, 2011 11:19pm
eu from a vsa perspective is being bought on dips .. still is on all time frames

3 weeks a go we had the STRONGEST 2 bar reversal on thge weekly IN THE HISTORY of the euro , this has not vanished....the strength is still there in the background

If we visit 1.3480 form here buy for a 800 to 1200 pip trade. I would NOT be selling rallies UNLESS you are a day trader. EU may be destined for 1.57

The fact you are saying sell eu at 1.,3720 is against all vsa principles ... sorry

There is NO weakness in the charts yet , when there is i will advise

Quoting A-speculator
Based on 4h candles for eu, price still does nothing, I would open short if I find weakness at 3720 area. If I am to open a position, i'll wait, I would not open in the middle of a move..

In 4h, there's still no sign of weakness yet.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,520
  • Feb 6, 2011 11:22pm Feb 6, 2011 11:22pm
do not complicate things.

Tom Williams the creator of vsa does not use range bars .. nor do i , nor does sonofin or dr g , candles and volume are all you need.


Quoting foxybunny
Hi Musashi,

I am curious on how you use range bars, and what are the advantages and disadvantages you have found in using range bars ?

Also for VSA, normally there is looking at narrow spread bars or wide spread bars.
In VSA terms, how would you look at this narrow spread and wide spreads when range bars only give you a constant width spread ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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