Silent Service Method

The unemployment rate drops because Americans are giving up looking for work. I don't buy the bullshit about weather. I only know what I see, and it ain't "Now Hiring" signs.

Manhattan must be it's own universe (been there, wasn't impressed. It's still not New Orleans.) - because they get it wrong. Every time.

Another NFP trading day that goes nowhere (essentially) in the EUR/USD. There is a trading strategy in that.

Well, yes there is but my sell limit was missed by 9 pips.

Eu really isn't doing it for me. lol

I was thinking more of a "reversion to the mean" type of system.....

The EU correlation with the S&P is quite strong ATM and the mean reversion trade in the S&P has been making decent money.

Hit the top daily bollinger band sell, hit the mean and buy. Rinse and repeat.

Boring market and the E/u and G/u both completed a DiNapoli double repo sell pattern on Thurs but only managed to reach their initial fib retracenent targets implying they could catch a bid on Tuesday when everyone is back.

The long Bernanke with tight stops trade is a scary but profitable method unfortunately in this farce of a market

Chris did you get the reversal you were chasing on the GBPCHF? I saw the EChf retrace off highs late but forgot to check the other.

Enjoy your weekend everyone!

Alright. If that's your take you're entitled to it. The economic numbers this week have been pretty good (PMI - better than expected, ISM - better than expected, ADP - better than expected, Claims - better, jobs report - I would call it mixed) and that's why we saw a 30+bp move higher in 10yr bond yields for the week. That's a relatively big move for bonds, and they wouldn't move like that unless the numbers were mostly good.

Manufacturing added 50K+ jobs in January...the biggest add since I'm not sure when.

Not sure what New York has to do with it to be honest... the biggest bond fund is in California (Pimco) and the biggest equity fund companies are not in NYC either...Vanguard is in Valley Forge, PA, Fidelity is in Boston, and I'm not sure where American Funds is from... These are the guys that are moving the markets... Even the robots that run the trading aren't even in Manhattan anymore, they might be in a server farm in NJ or upstate NY, or out in Kansas.

Anyway...I guess time will tell. Have a good weekend.

I was speaking more of Wall Street's reaction, which as you know is in Manhattan. It sits on the former Waal Straat, which was founded as fortifications against the locals by the original Walloon settlers. It is also home to some of the most out of touch people on the planet. Trading and reality have nothing to do with each other. Otherwise, there never would have been the housing crash involving the MBS'.

The unemployment number is a joke. The simple fact that we need 150k just to move the ball forward is the only real number that matters. Adding 36k is simply losing 114k as immigration and new kids entering the workforce negates that pathetic number.

ISM PMI and everything else is secondary at best. The biggest reason is this: If you aren't working, you aren't buying. If you aren't buying....then those businesses aren't really doing anything productive.

While I do admit that the US is better off than it was 2 years ago. Let's be honest: It's 1978 all over again. Don't believe me? Riddle me this then:

Why is it that unemployment is outrageously high? (Up to 16% if you would count it in realistic terms, and not how the government does. Nobody "leaves the workplace" until they retire or die.)

Why are there so many douchebags running wild with these alpha beards? (This is a personal thing for me.)

Inflation doesn't exist? On what planet is that true? If you buy food - you are paying inflation. I don't give a shit what the government of the Fed says. Shit is more expensive, and that's what matters.

We are watching a Middle Eastern Government (Egypt) fall, and it's not necessarily going to be a friendly one afterwards. Just like in the 70s, the US media and Administration are completely clueless as to who they may be dealing with. Tunisia has already fallen. Jordan, Yemen, Sudan, and Syria could be next. Guess who is surrounded at that point if these government turn into fundamentalist states? Time to grab your Yarmulke and Uzi, the neighbors are coming, and they aren't interested in a BBQ.

And then is fashion and "music". Don't get me started with that. I have this theory that there is a reason the Rolling Stones are getting ready for their 50th anniversary tour......they have to keep playing because of the state of present music.

The 70s were a decade of inflation, problems in the Middle East, tackiness, and high unemployment. The country had a defeatist attitude, and interest rates shot up to 20% at one point.

Any of this sound familiar?

What I am saying is that people are basically stupid. This time isn't any different, as some very serious issues are being ignored. Granted, my point goes well beyond the original, but I have ADD, and that's how it goes.

Oh, and speaking of Pimco, what was it I just read about them being investigated for some kind of misdeed? It was a blip, and I was surprised by it to be honest, but now I can't find it.

Wow. Well that's certainly a bit more than I can respond to while sitting in my car... but I'll throw this out there: the U6 measurre of unemployment you're referring to dropped from 16.7 down to 16.1 which is not bad for a one month change. Is it time for champagne and party hats? No, but things are improving. And people are spending...vehicle sales are running at a 12 or 13mm annual pace and retail sales numbers have been decent. Anyway....that's all for now, back to babysitting!

Seriously.....a REAL MAN could have typed more than that on their phone. :-)

Move along children....nothing to see here:

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206940

Enjoyed the last few posts guys. Good discussion.

So.......my sons are watching Go Diego Go!, and a whale is on. My 2 year-old yells "Mommy!" when it talks. Should I tell her?

After reading a very bad article on adding to your position, I thought about how many traders don't really know how to do this. It's too bad really, as it can supercharge your returns. The biggest problem is that the markets need to be trending. Not all pairs have been doing that in a decisive manner lately, so your mileage may vary.....

But lets take a look at a pair that has been in a serious trend: EUR/AUD. Just a thought exercise here, but can you imagine if you added 10% of your original position size every time it made a fresh new low over the last few months or even years? The gains would be astronomical.

Of course, there is the debate on how much to add - and to be honest, that's probably a comfort thing as much as mathematical. The main reason I chose 10% as an example is that it would take a pretty big move against you to wipe out all of your profits. The idea isn't to make a killing off of the first and second position - it's what you make off of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th position.

The biggest issue is that there haven't been many pairs to do this with. Someday in the future, we will have a smooth trend in general, much like the trend of a few years back - that's when this kind of strategy will make you a ton of money.

Chris

Oops!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_819068.html

Hi mate,

Are those sales numbers coming from GM and the other manufacturers or actual dealer sales?

I only ask because I read somewhere the other day that dealer inventory is at all time highs and that GM and Ford have been stuffing their dealer network full on zero finance to boost their numbers before earnings.

I agree with you that the picture for the US is slowly brightening however I find it very difficult to trust the figures of a government who calculate unemployment with such silly metrics and not to mention excluding food and fuel from core inflation numbers.

Everyone knows there is a crisis in investor confidence and the fact the government has not focused on trying to create greater transparency regading the economic numbers to alleviate this investor trust issue implies to me that things are still worse than we all imagine them to be.

Speaking with a close friend here in London last night about things and he is more bullish on the US too. He heads up a large bank's FX operations and Aldo seems to think to GBP will continue to catch a bid here which I found interesting. My view of the economy here from a retail perspective is very different to the finance industry where guys are now earning more than ever. They are actually scared to spend it though due to public backlash which shows how small minded many are here because it's their gratuitous spending that really floats the retail economy here in the city.

Interested in your thoughts, especially on the auto stuff. Can't remember where I read about the dealer stuffing but the case made was compelling.

Cheers

4x

I found Shiff's Friday video very interesting, especially towards the end of it.

Hi Soso,

I see that you landed safely. Are you becoming Mr Roboto ?

Lou

Latest Goldman Sachs FX team charts for the coming week. Might be of interest.

They have been notoriously poor with their client trade suggestions in recent times but this guy's charting is normally worth a look.

Hope you've all had a great weekend.

Cheers,

4x.

Lou are you one of FF's founding fathers?

That was almost as hard to type as it is to say quickly.

No, but when I started .. lo these many years ago ....it was called Forex Machine Shop.