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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,421
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:38am Feb 5, 2011 8:38am
just two pics without much comment.

my thoughts of possible outcome. i am not on the sellside here. daily is indicative for strength at important area.
rapid markup on monday to lock confident short-traders in and lock scared bulls out. thu+friday's purpose was to sent us biased into the weekend.

http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/4...0205151813.png

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/436...0205151907.png
  • #11,422
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:27am Feb 5, 2011 9:27am
6e 1439 min chart (like daily but tricking esignal to get volume on the bar rather than one bar later)

1st vertical lien buyers....1.3566
2nd line potential stopping , close 1.3640
3rd...squat bar on above average volume after three days down.

Monday we should see up bar ....

why ?

well if the up trend is intact still retracements are typically no more than 3 bars , sometime 4.... which is why i have marked both 1.3477 and 1.3360 areas on chart

I think we retrace to these areas then take it form there. I am looking for a test day on the futures to confirm euro move to 1.4 / 1.4250.

In the mean time i am day trading using daily ranges

Key if that potential stopping volume plays out and friday is a no supply bar is 1.3640


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu77.png Size: 136 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,423
  • Feb 5, 2011 10:31am Feb 5, 2011 10:31am
Quoting malcolmb14
6e 1439 min chart (like daily but tricking esignal to get volume on the bar rather than one bar later)

1st vertical lien buyers....1.3566
2nd line potential stopping , close 1.3640
3rd...squat bar on above average volume after three days down.

Monday we should see up bar ....

why ?

well if the up trend is intact still retracements are typically no more than 3 bars , sometime 4.... which is why i have marked both 1.3477 and 1.3360 areas on chart

I think we retrace to these areas then take it form there. I am looking for a test day on...
No lower than 3360 next week should keep the upmove intact... personally I would like to see no lower than 3480. If we move right up on Monday with no further retrace than I also agree that a trigger in the 3625-3640 area would be nice to get in long.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,424
  • Feb 5, 2011 10:42am Feb 5, 2011 10:42am
We'll see 1,3450 before going up again. On Thursday and Friday there have been a great effort to fall, I believe that with success.
  • #11,425
  • Feb 5, 2011 11:52am Feb 5, 2011 11:52am
Quoting cuchuflito
HI
Iīm looking at the Tradedguider software...
I have other software, and get my Data through MT4(my trading platform), with an indicator that downloads ASCII data to my Hard drive automatically...
Does Tradeguider have a Data reading capability (like Metastock and most of them)?
I donīt like e-signal and CO..!
Thanks in advance..
Tradeguider 4 realtime needs eSignal or one of the other equally costly datafeeds. It can read Metastock files, but the first load locks the file and you can't read in an updated chart without closing it and reloading it - that makes it unfeasable to use metastock date (converted from MT4 presumably).

Not sure if they have EOD TG 4 still - in theory - it might work the way 2.53 EOD did where you could load up a metastock data provided chart in TG, and then when you update the metastock file, the TG chart refreshes.

But really eSignal is the best way to go ... not sure what there is to dislike other than the cost; if you sign up with one of the biggie brokers via leveragefx.com and trade 10 lots/month, eSignal is free.

But ... you don't really need TG to learn VSA; there are other platforms and indis for MT4 that can help tremendously.
  • #11,426
  • Feb 5, 2011 12:04pm Feb 5, 2011 12:04pm
Hey guys sorry for lurking so long, been kinda to busy to post or partake frequently.

My analysis what I see in eu.

1. In this last run op on the daily, market responded positivly to all low volume bars.

2. 26th Jan, was a no demand looking bar wich also got bought up pretty veraciously.

3. This might be the start off distrubution. As in prelimenary supply. Thats what i think looking at the weekly then the monthly.

note. The last time we saw a setup type like this on the weekly was on 2009.05.31.

What i think will probably happen. Is some supply will be taken out first, which might take a couple of weeks. Then a push higher to be distributed later.

This i gathered solely from looking at the chart. Not factoring what current and future events the smart money will be thinking off.

Next thing i will be doing is studying the wyckoff distribution schematics.
  • #11,427
  • Feb 5, 2011 12:23pm Feb 5, 2011 12:23pm
awesome and will put together post, please keep on posting I would love to see more from you

Quoting pete148
Hey guys sorry for lurking so long, been kinda to busy to post or partake frequently.

My analysis what I see in eu.

1. In this last run op on the daily, market responded positivly to all low volume bars.

2. 26th Jan, was a no demand looking bar wich also got bought up pretty veraciously.

3. This might be the start off distrubution. As in prelimenary supply. Thats what i think looking at the weekly then the monthly.

note. The last time we saw a setup type like this on the weekly was on 2009.05.31.

What i think will probably happen. Is some...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,428
  • Feb 5, 2011 1:28pm Feb 5, 2011 1:28pm
Hello friends: I hope all are well and prospering. I am grateful for the many interesting analytical posts and charts. Many Thanks.

To contribute to the thread, I submit the following link to Sebastaian Manby VSA analysis videos on Trader's Laboratory.

http://www.videos.traderslaboratory.com/tags/vsa

This also includes a Tod Kruger and Ted Williams TG seminar presentation.

Best Wishes for Big Profits.
  • #11,429
  • Feb 5, 2011 2:29pm Feb 5, 2011 2:29pm
Hello friends: I respectfully submit that if EU conforms to a standard Wyckoff accumulation model then something like the following speculative chart musing may occur.

The Wyckoffian accumulation schematic diagram and explanation is found at this link.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2010%2011:50am

*No speculator or investor should take my chart musings seriously or take any action based on my musings especially with their hard earned money.

Best Wishes for Big Profits and Success
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 2-5-11 wyckoff accumulation.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #11,430
  • Feb 5, 2011 3:30pm Feb 5, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Hello friends: I respectfully submit that if EU conforms to a standard Wyckoff accumulation model then something like the following speculative chart musing may occur.

The Wyckoffian accumulation schematic diagram and explanation is found at this link.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2010%2011:50am

*No speculator or investor should take my chart musings seriously or take any action based on my musings especially with their hard earned money.

Best Wishes for Big Profits and Success...
but do you take into consideration the left side of th chart ?
  • #11,431
  • Edited Feb 6, 2011 5:55am Feb 5, 2011 9:08pm | Edited Feb 6, 2011 5:55am
Quoting duyk20
Would you mind tell me how does gap affect your judgment?
For example, big, small up-gap, big small down-gap
Thank you!
GAP.....I look for price violation to find the direction.

As my tool for trading is Waves and Fib relations to it (HARMONIC)

Vsa is not my primary tool.

Dr.G , Mal and others on this forum are good at that, I keep their expertise in Mind to assure my assumption of the trend and find the best discounted FIB price to take or add to a position.

When I see a conflict in opinion I re-evaluate and take the decision based on Elliot wave rules and Divergence. for example this one:

LAST WEEK.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post4357531

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post4364842

You can see how price fell sharply after 1.3746 broke.( reference to above post)


For this weekend GAP= just to see if it violates price point. example if E/U breaks 1.3550 decisively which is just 11 pips for me..(1.3539).. I will be looking to reshort this from a higher price.If price goes below 1.3539 then 1.3494 is given FOLLOWED BY 1.3455.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #11,432
  • Feb 6, 2011 12:54am Feb 6, 2011 12:54am
Quoting rbumbalough
Hello friends: I respectfully submit that if EU conforms to a standard Wyckoff accumulation model then something like the following speculative chart musing may occur.
Thank you for the documentation. Provided a nice refresher.
  • #11,433
  • Edited 5:12am Feb 6, 2011 4:13am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting duyk20
Would you mind tell me how does gap affect your judgment?
For example, big, small up-gap, big small down-gap
Thank you!
The gap ups are manipulations done by market makers during very thin trading aka weekends so as to enter the market at a more attractive price...gap down means market is likely to go up and vice versa
  • #11,434
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:43am Feb 6, 2011 8:43am
What does that mean?

GBP/USD -1,2415
USD Index 2,2109
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU-USD index.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #11,435
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:04am Feb 6, 2011 9:04am
Quoting juhanimi
What does that mean?

GBP/USD -1,2415
USD Index 2,2109
% movements from the start of the period.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #11,436
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:07am Feb 6, 2011 9:07am
On another note, the EURUSD SSI from FXCM is at -1.90. If we really did make an important top in the euro on weds, we would have seen more retail(sucker) money buying the euro. I've been trading using SSI for over a year, and retail money never calls tops appropriately. If we see a top, they should be ideally switching to net long within a couple days of the top on the euro.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #11,437
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:08am Feb 6, 2011 9:08am
Quoting rahulkghosh
% movements from the start of the period.
So, dollar is stronger than pound?
  • #11,438
  • Edited 9:50am Feb 6, 2011 9:24am | Edited 9:50am
must watch for everybody!

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pr...VD/PPSIM129/PR
  • #11,439
  • Feb 6, 2011 10:10am Feb 6, 2011 10:10am
Quoting juhanimi
So, dollar is stronger than pound?
During that period, yes.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #11,440
  • Feb 6, 2011 10:19am Feb 6, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
must watch for everybody!

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pr...VD/PPSIM129/PR
Well to be honest, I'm in the group that the rally in US equity markets has been a bear market rally. My long-term target for the DOW is below 2,000. We have seen less than 10% of the financial crisis. On the issue of the US dollar crash and commodities going ballistic and hyperinflation, last time we had talk of this was Spring 08. The crisis will likely be deflationary, not inflationary.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
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