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Trend Lines Don't Work

  • #121
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:09am Feb 3, 2011 9:09am
Quoting dragan53
unsubscribed
LOL
  • #122
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:33am Feb 3, 2011 9:33am
How long will this thread last? You shouldn't start a thread with the intent of being vague. It's one thing to be vague in general.....because there are a lot of great traders who trade in the background who have no intention of exposing their methods. But don't start a thread with the intent of being vague. That's when I lose respect for you. This thread is just going in circles to nowhere....I can only assume that folks keep hangin' on thinking this person will reveal some grand secret or something.......I have no idea!!!!
  • #123
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:42am Feb 3, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Troikaone1
How long will this thread last? You shouldn't start a thread with the intent of being vague. It's one thing to be vague in general.....because there are a lot of great traders who trade in the background who have no intention of exposing their methods. But don't start a thread with the intent of being vague. That's when I lose respect for you. This thread is just going in circles to nowhere....I can only assume that folks keep hangin' on thinking this person will reveal some grand secret or something.......I have no idea!!!!
It's like someone telling a really long joke. You get in deep enough that you're compelled to stick around for the punch line.
  • #124
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:48am Feb 3, 2011 9:48am
Quoting Troikaone1
don't start a thread with the intent of being vague. That's when I lose respect for you. This thread is just going in circles to nowhere....I can only assume that folks keep hangin' on thinking this person will reveal some grand secret or something.......I have no idea!!!!
Here it is....
Curves!
Attached Image


(Yeah, I don't know what the h that is, either.)
  • #125
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:51am Feb 3, 2011 9:51am
Quoting GEfx
It's like someone telling a really long joke. You get in deep enough that you're compelled to stick around for the punch line.
I guess GEfx.....
  • #126
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:54am Feb 3, 2011 9:54am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Well NY has a point... Maybe if people had asked him in the first place what he was on about, a more interesting discussion may have developed. Instead people started bashing him without first entertaining his idea, I'm with you
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...tar89935_7.gif Troikaone1
Stay Focused
... I don't know

You know somethings gone a miss when you get to page 8 and so much has been written without anything...
With honest respect for you and your post, please consider the following. First, I deleted my early posts where I asked him for specifics. Second, if you go back through the thread, you'll see several posts where he is being asked for specifics. And third, it is not our responsibility to ask for specifics, rather it's his to provide it in a timely manner. I do agree, however, that we are all responsible for the time we invested or wasted reading this thread up to this point. Good trading.
  • #127
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:59am Feb 3, 2011 9:59am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Well...
Yes, when you are vague and have no intention of having a real discussion, you will get bashed eventually I suppose. Again, I'm happy that this person has discovered something special about the markets. I don't know about anyone else, but what I have seen so far has been borderline incoherent and spooky. Hopefully it is intentional and not something else more troubling. It could possibly be a language barrier thing ( I dunno).
  • #128
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:29pm Feb 3, 2011 1:29pm
if you want to start unlocking "secrets" although there really is not much of that.. but I use it in the term I see others use it..

why don't you look at this or any thread.. take note of confirmation bias, psychological projection, and etc..

thats what 90% of you guys are doing...


but to say to me "oh its NY job to provide this that and the other with specifics" haha.. my friend.. its your job to learn how to trade.. but besides that.. this thread is not for you... its for me... it could provide some insights for you too.. but not many know how to look at it in this context.. and thats probably because not many know how to look at a chart in a successful context
  • #129
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:40pm Feb 3, 2011 1:40pm
If I understand the intent of the original poster correctly, I believe he was looking to initiate discussion on the mechanics/dynamics that potentially make trendlines work/don't work.

That said, I have to say I never actually thought about it. I guess trendlines have always been "sacred" and I always just took them as they were. Where as with indicators, I always sought to understand their mechanical design.

So I do find bringing the same view to trendlines is actually interesting, and more interesting how I never looked to understand their underlying workings.

That said, it may just be like many other things in trading. We have to formulate a theory, and never really know the true answer.

I mean can we know why participants in the market (in an uptrend) bought at a certain price, then as price moved up and retraced, why they (the particants) bought at another higher price, and why this repeats, seemingly forming a trendline?

Either the majority of the participants ARE buying as price reaches this area, or by some instinct, they feel the price is right and buy in higher than the last price.

I know when I traded intraday, I could see triangles froming, as it was a natural process.

I mean, if you think of a trading range, as price moves between $1 to $2, you buy $1 and sell at $2. This can occur a few times, but then you'll start seeing price failing to get to $2, and getting maybe only to $1.98 before it starts to fall. If I'm still holding I hit the bid at $1.97 to get out and end up hitting it again at $1.96 to go short.

Now as price moves towards $1 I can't wait for $1, I have to get out earlier... so I may look to exit at $1.05, then look to go long at $1.06
The thing is everyone is doing the same thing along side me, and each of us is trying to maximize profits AND not miss the move, this causes the range to tighten up to a triangle.

So "trendlines" form in this triangle context by traders constantly trying to anticipate where other traders are positioned, then acting in front of them.

If you don't anticipate or mis-anticpate, then you'll "miss the boat" and have to pay higher/lower prices to close out your trade or initiate a new trade.

So the idea seems to be:
Anticipating where to get in, ahead of the demand.
Executing
Anticipating Where to get out ahead of supply.

For non-trianglular trendlines, or general up and down trendlines, I'm
wondering how this would apply...

I'll ponder it some more...

Joe
  • #130
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:48pm Feb 3, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting joekurr
If I understand the intent of the original poster correctly, I believe he was looking to initiate discussion on the mechanics/dynamics that potentially make trendlines work/don't work....
This is good.. I like your thinking.. I like what you said about trying to beat the other guy to the move.. I never worded it this way but very similar thought I suppose

I will think about this as well.. the way your worded it, and also consider it with my other concepts..

I'm also open to the idea that trend lines work to the degree of mass amount of traders using them who have whatever belief in why.. but considering there subjective style its hard to say at what times enough traders take the same line with enough influence on the market


thanks for you insights!
  • #131
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:09pm Feb 4, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting newyear498
What probability? the probability that, price = mx + b ?


what is the underlying reason that trend lines pick tops and bottoms for you?


Its always easier to make sense of what happened after the fact with a pretty trend line, rather then as its happening

CNBC: "well the reason the EUR/USD jumped up 500 points today was because it met up with one of its trend lines and simply that.. back to you jim"
You also posted previously that I stated they help me catch tops and bottoms. Dont you see other things on there such as blue boxes, and horizontal lines on my pictures?

I do not use trendlines to catch tops and bottoms, I use them to help me catch them. I use PA supply/demand zones, and areas of confluence.

I want to point something out to you that started making alot of sense to me after I see dips and rallies of hundreds of pips then the trends immediatly catch a line and fall back into trend. Two points to make here:

1. Go back to basics and remember how much does a market trend vs range? What causes ranging? What is really a stop hunt? What is the truth about support and resistance or supply/demand if you will.

2. Havent you ever wondered why a 200 to 500 pip move occures then hits a trendlnie on a daily or h4 chart or even weekly? Have you noticed all the stupid posts people post to random news links causing rallies, I swear I can see 100 different reasons posted with news links causing a rally then a big big sell off.

You want to see where the big dogs are at? Throw a weekly and monthly chart up. Look at tops and bottoms. That is where smart money is, and they are playing the little game all the way through the major swings within this trend.

You dont think price is really worked do you? I have seen the cause and affect of price move, alot of it is false based on what the average joe thinks. To big smart money those 200 500 pip swings are real and they can withstand these swings. Why??? Because major institutions use our money to lend to them selves!

Think about number 2 for a long time. And go back to the very basic mentality of trading. "buy low, sell high".

Maybe this is why Gann is one of the best well known PA traders in the world.

DO yourself a favor. Put a bar chart daily or weekly (pull it away from you to see more price) on and use all black bars, on a white background with no grid no session lines or anything. Can you spot money much easier than red and green candles and wicks. Do you see what I am talking about.

I threw out candlestick charts because it is hogwash and you have too much to look at to factor in a decision. Bar charts will give you a bit more deadly accuracy.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #132
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:19pm Feb 4, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting newyear498
This is good.. I like your thinking.. I like what you said about trying to beat the other guy to the move.. I never worded it this way but very similar thought I suppose

I will think about this as well.. the way your worded it, and also consider it with my other concepts..

I'm also open to the idea that trend lines work to the degree of mass amount of traders using


thanks for you insights!
Do yourself a favor don't think retail traders are making these big moves at the trend lines, it is big smart money. ALso do yourself one last favor and I will be silent after this, put up a smaller tf chart and spot the divergence (big smart money - morgan stanly, duiche bank, Swiss bank, ect...)that happens when these angles appear at a trend line.


Have you ever experienced and also read where you are trend trading you enter a trade and it stops you out -80 or -100 pips then all of a suddon the next day if you had 10 more pops avail for your sl you would actually be in profit price returned the next day, ore even maybe it makes 2 days for price to come back then you would have been profitable?

This is the key with MM. If you want the big trends you need to have cushion. Once you experience you can survive these 100 pip dd swings to find yourself in 200+ pips over the next couple days you can see it was all because you used half the trade size you normally would to catch the big move. So yes this is psychological profiling with Money Mangement.

I used to hate that I would get stopped out only to see I would be 100+ pips in profit the next day. I learned my lesson.

This is why I hate scalping.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #133
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:36pm Feb 4, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting goods
Do yourself a favor don't think retail traders are making these big moves at the trend lines, it is big smart money....
Dang, that's exactly my attitude trading TL's (and the temporary patterns they anchor on): You find a revealing angle and know it'll hit only not when, so sometimes it could be lots of pips before it does. And, even though I use only the 1'TF, I too stay away from scalping; it just feels like I miss seeing the overall trend if I do other than this.
One cure for needing such big in-trade drawdown is to capture an area's basic motions with TL's etc., which I sometimes do even if I don't always realize it in time. Another is to keep consistent on what I go for, which seems to have been your path.
  • #134
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:42pm Feb 4, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Dang, that's exactly my attitude trading TL's (and the temporary patterns they anchor on):...
Hi HA thanks for confluence. I agree the swings might big but I learned that I need to wait for confirmation this will prevent as little dd as possible and I look for divergence (tick volume on OBV).

The psychological aspect comes simply with the fact people are trading way too big lot size for the move they are trying to catch with too small of an account. Simple I learned to catch these moves cut my trade size down in half.

If I want to scalp I need to learn to be humble with 10 and 15 pips at a pop and this just is not me.

Trading is about waiting for the most probable setup, and a setup is not confirmed unless price tells you it is confirmed. Simple, use the big swing place sl outside that, and enjoy the ride. SL's above 10 and 15 pip ranges will surely eat our account and cause you to fail 95% of the time.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #135
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:00pm Feb 4, 2011 1:00pm
Twist on an old Rodney Dangerfield joke .............. if you look up the word "TrendLines" in the dictionary Tom DeMark's picture will be there.

Also under the word - "works" too.

And what do you know, there is even a topic or two here on FF covering DeMark but believe what you want. It's a free country, maybe even in Egypt soon too.
  • #136
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:39pm Feb 4, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting goods
Hi HA thanks for confluence. I agree the swings might big but I learned that I need to wait for confirmation this will prevent as little dd as possible and I look for divergence (tick volume on OBV).

The psychological aspect comes simply with the fact people are trading way too big lot size for the move they are trying to catch with too small of an account. Simple I learned to catch these moves cut my trade size down in half.

If I want to scalp I need to learn to be humble with 10 and 15 pips at a pop and this just is not me.

Trading is about...
Hi Goods, I think your last few posts are excellent.
  • #137
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:05am Feb 5, 2011 4:05am
I Agree great posts and good advice from Goods.... not worth reading whole thread for though.... just start on page 9!!!!

But NY has a point, I just want to be spoon fed!!! (still with mummy and daddy)

So have to ask!!!

NY if you had to draw a trend line (your life's savings depended on it)

What factors would you take into account?

How would you draw it?
  • #138
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:33am Feb 5, 2011 4:33am
You're out in left field playing with the grass, man!!!!!
  • #139
  • Feb 5, 2011 12:07pm Feb 5, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting Trader888
Pure trendlines are more reliable simply because they are time-independant and MANY MANY MANY big players look at them - walk into any treasury in the world and you won't see fibs on their charts you will however see trendlines. So what will happen when price reach that line? Everybody will react - the reason for being at the trendline plays a role in whether it will hold or break and usually a fundamental announcement cause the line to become significant or not.
There is some unbelievable amount of wisdom buried under the mindless crap,.... but one need to search.
.
  • #140
  • Feb 5, 2011 1:47pm Feb 5, 2011 1:47pm
On Thursday in EU daily chart there was a big non-reaction to the two trendlines drawn from 1/10/11 & 1/17/11 lows to the low on 1/31/11 extended out.

"Like a hot knife threw butter".

But under Tom DeMark trendline qualifiers that was what was called for. Does it work all the time. No, but what does?
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