Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1137 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #22,721
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:42am Feb 3, 2011 10:42am
Quoting imjscn
He went to his mother's home for Chinese New Year. His sister drove him there. So, at least he's not alone.
Thanks for updating imjscn


V
  • #22,722
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:13am Feb 3, 2011 11:13am
@GEfx, @Fanna, @Vice, We share the same worries.
  • #22,723
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:22pm Feb 3, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting maheswara
I see , eventually it comes down to what kind of risk you are comfortable managing ...
about traders that look for one-all-fit strategy , its a phase for newbies , but most will leave the phase when they understand deeper about trading , only a handful rejects understanding further and put efforts instead in wrong places , but such is the nature of our business , without them taking the other side of a trade, who else would ?
Blessed are your words.
  • #22,724
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:26pm Feb 3, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting lovecraft
@sylar, hello and nice to meet you.
@maheswara, understood....
Sorry, for me there is absolutely accurate mathematics and entry and exit positions, such as the Sun and Earth etc. ...
  • #22,725
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:31pm Feb 3, 2011 1:31pm
And that is the response from Heli Ben ;-)

.
Attached Image
  • #22,726
  • Edited 2:30pm Feb 3, 2011 1:44pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting fullperson
Ok, so my performance is kind of interesting. My foreign cap keeps increasing, padded by attacks and rescues. However...

The weird thing is, if you look at the chart, the scout directions that I take are often wrong, but remedied by leveraged flips that are in the correct direction (allowing attacks to be in the correct direction). These flips in addition to proper attacks tend to be where I am making the foreign cap.

The results are embarrassing to say the least via 250k practice account. This is the worst of my days, and signal my use of aggressive...
...
PS arch is composed of lots of straight lines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan5ecurve.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #22,727
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:12pm Feb 3, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting fullperson
Ok, so my performance is kind of interesting. My foreign cap keeps increasing, padded by attacks and rescues. However...

The weird thing is, if you look at the chart, the scout directions that I take are often wrong, but remedied by leveraged flips that are in the correct direction (allowing attacks to be in the correct direction). These flips in addition to proper attacks tend to be where I am making the foreign cap.

The results are embarrassing to say the least via 250k practice account. This is the worst of my days, and signal my use of...
Hello Fullperson. From my view of this, you should identify very honestly, where you stand in trading. From my history i know, that i was for some time in mis-understood status of "what it is". Many times i burned my fingers. Let me be cheeky... Congratulations to some burnings:-). Without it, imho, one stuck in deception. Unfortunately it hurts. With respect. Fana
  • #22,728
  • Feb 3, 2011 2:56pm Feb 3, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting Fana
"what it is". Many times i burned my fingers. Let me be cheeky... Congratulations to some burnings:-). Without it, imho, one stuck in deception.
  • #22,729
  • Edited 6:15pm Feb 3, 2011 3:04pm | Edited 6:15pm
Inserted Video


Unfortunately I can not translate
Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #22,730
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:10pm Feb 3, 2011 10:10pm
It is really an eye opener for me. It is clear that scorpions still show up. I trade in an environment that I have not made abundantly serious. In addition, I realize that I am very aggressive in my flips once I find my direction and I tend to hold my positions until I am sure that I am out.

I can rationalize that my previous two trading days allowed me foreign cap of about 7.4k (so technically I did not breach the rigid pain rule at any point).

This is very unprofessional and I have posted it here so that I could not hide my mistakes. The previous two days are attached so that I can be brutally honest with myself.

The same recklessly aggressive and poor position sizing mixed with terrible timing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: blotter2 jan4.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ecurve 2.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: blotter2.gif Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chartjan3.gif Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ecurvejan24.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #22,731
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:40pm Feb 3, 2011 10:40pm
@sylar, it's not a phrase, but the name of an unfortunate writer who was paranoid of the unknown. and thanks for the wise quote.

@indianguy, thanks for the vouch, my friend.

@ukmanthailan, those are truly words of wisdom. Seems we have a lot of Bruce Lee fans, too. Do you have more?


Quoting Gro
Sorry, for me there is absolutely accurate mathematics and entry and exit positions, such as the Sun and Earth etc. ...
@Gro, I'm not sure I get your point. But the orbits of celestial bodies are elements of physical systems, and are governed by physics. Economic/financial systems are not governed by the same rules, so it's impossible to accurately describe boundaries on their motion. Isn't that the point of this thread? Financial systems are governed by behavior as shown by Tversky and Kahneman. The fact that discretely measured forex quotes produces a time series resembling the measurements of physical motion does not prove that the underlying process is the same, nor that it can be modeled with standard engineering methods. For small moves, the motion resembles brownian motion enough, so it can give the illusion of following a gaussian distribution.

That's why I always had a stack of resumes on my desk from wannabe quants with backgrounds in electrical engineering. They figure that with their signal processing methods, it'd be a cake to model financial time series. But the underlying process was unknown. Economics is a social science, and statisticians from these disciplines throw away and ignore outlier observations. But in trading, when real money is on the line, you do not have that option. The outliers count and represent real windfalls.

But if you have found a method trumpeting that accuracy, then I salute you and wish you the best my friend. Honestly, you're never too old to learn something new.
  • #22,732
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:49am Feb 4, 2011 12:49am
Is the study of statistics useful? I am currently studying time series analysis (cointegration will be explained in the course). As fortune would have it, my prof happens to be an economist.

There is a person in my class that works in the quant field w/ arbitrage..not sure how well he is doing, but I plan on talking to him about it next week.

The way I see it, models are necessary for complexity of certain instruments. As long as we keep in mind that it is simply a model and learn to manage the position, we could still use the model with good results.

But then again I do not have much experience in this field..just getting me feet wet.




Quoting lovecraft
@sylar, it's not a phrase, but the name of an unfortunate writer who was paranoid of the unknown. and thanks for the wise quote.

@indianguy, thanks for the vouch, my friend.

@ukmanthailan, those are truly words of wisdom....
  • #22,733
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:15am Feb 4, 2011 1:15am
Hi all after a long break ...
Previously lived in Poland and now living with family in England ...
Yet not all the cases settled, but I am already in contact with the market and forex forum.
Greetings to all
gart
  • #22,734
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:19am Feb 4, 2011 1:19am
Quoting lovecraft
@sylar, it's not a phrase, but the name of an unfortunate writer who was paranoid of the unknown. and thanks for the wise quote.

@indianguy, thanks for the vouch, my friend.

@ukmanthailan, those are truly words of wisdom....
Hi Lovecraft.
Gro has written : "Sorry, for me there is absolutely accurate mathematics and entry and exit positions, such as the Sun and Earth etc. ..."

and i have found : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics

Btw. dangerous to the mindset to read economic books too much!!! Regards
  • #22,735
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:28am Feb 4, 2011 1:28am
Hi fullperson, nice chart would you please tell more about your chart, what is vhandstrade and how are you using that?
  • #22,736
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:40am Feb 4, 2011 1:40am
Good morning Friends,

I want to share a little excerpt from the book "Beat the forex dealer" with you. The chapters headline: "How to trade out of a losing Position".

Reading some of your posts and looking back on my own postings, I probably have promoted the (leveraged) flip a little to strong. There are some other methods in fti's aresenal of strategies. One of them is described in the attached pdf.

Well - of course the author is not completely following fti's treachings. So you have to adjust it a little. But the main idea of reducing the exposure and how to trade you out of the hole is summarized nicely ...

Cu,
Niels
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Beat-the-Forex-Dealer_excerpt01.pdf   1,014 KB | 4,083 downloads
  • #22,737
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:43am Feb 4, 2011 1:43am
Hi All,

just curious, do we need to be good in economics to become a better trader? i'm still a noob and just start reading this thread and have been jumping pages trying hard to catch up and learn quick... but i noticed nobody is actively trading on this thread - i mean showing trade analysis and blotters.

does anybody here really learned fti's method or maybe most people here are scared to death to show and share to this thread their views of the market... or too afraid to make a wrong call and make a loss infront of everyone here just my thought.

i wish some old timer here can still light up this thread and put some perk - bring this thread back to where it should be... dancing!!!!

sad to see people not dancing anymore... or maybe they're just too greedy to share i guess fti is the only unselfish person here... and of course me jk

be nimble and don't be rigid... it kills, right!

sorry, to bother... but i'm just asking.

i hope fti is well now.

regards to all and hope to see some dancers again, while fti is away.
  • #22,738
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:55am Feb 4, 2011 1:55am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning Friends,

I want to share a little excerpt from the book "Beat the forex dealer" with you. The chapters headline: "How to trade out of a losing Position".

Reading some of your posts and looking back on my own postings, I probably have promoted the (leveraged) flip a little to strong. There are some other methods in fti's aresenal of strategies. One of them is described in the attached pdf.

Well - of course the author is not completely following fti's treachings. So you have to adjust it a little. But the main idea of reducing...
Thanks for sharing mamood. Pretty good read.
  • #22,739
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:58am Feb 4, 2011 1:58am
Quoting fullperson
Is the study of statistics useful? I am currently studying time series analysis (cointegration will be explained in the course). As fortune would have it, my prof happens to be an economist.

There is a person in my class that works in the quant field w/ arbitrage..not sure how well he is doing, but I plan on talking to him about it next week.

The way I see it, models are necessary for complexity of certain instruments. As long as we keep in mind that it is simply a model and learn to manage the position, we could still use the model with...
Fullperson, I wouldn't advise a statistical approach to trading your FX account. I agree 100% with your view of models, but trading a few linear instruments with short holding times doesn't rise to the level of complexity needing a statistical framework. Co-integration can work its magic to smooth out a diversified portfolio over longer holding periods, but even that's an illusion of stability. We used statistical models at work, but only because we knew when to ignore them.

If you are looking to enhance your education or employment prospects, then by all means, aim for the stars. However, if your goal is strictly to achieve alpha, then your time is better spent learning and re-learning fti's teachings, rather than looking for those repeating patterns under the fallacy of statistical analysis. Hope that helps.
  • #22,740
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:04am Feb 4, 2011 2:04am
Quoting Fana
Hi Lovecraft.
Gro has written : "Sorry, for me there is absolutely accurate mathematics and entry and exit positions, such as the Sun and Earth etc. ..."

and i have found : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics

Btw. dangerous to the mindset to read economic books too much!!! Regards
Hey, Fana,
Not sure why that would refute what I said. Certainly wasn't trying to be snarky. Maybe you can enlighten me? before I wear out my welcome with the other senior members here.
11 traders viewing now