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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,341
  • Edited 10:01am Feb 3, 2011 9:44am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/8...0203161629.png
they try to build a cause. we had a first initial rally which by definition lacks of demand and got responded with some remaining supply kicking in. not massive but still average. result was a shakeout type bar on high vol. this vol has to be tested.

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/506...0203164007.png
  • #11,342
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:54am Feb 3, 2011 9:54am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
they try to build a cause. we had a first initial rally which by definition lacks of demand and got responded with some remaining supply kicking. not massive but still average. result was a shakeout type bar on high vol. this vol has to be tested.
Hi Dr.G
How this volume is going to be tested? Just tell me the situation for a valid test

Edit: current price action looks like head and shoulder, spike up soon? Time will tell
  • #11,343
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:59am Feb 3, 2011 9:59am
would be kind and respectful to read the mtm-book mentioned in here

any tiny spread down bar closing off the lows on low vol with the next bar up here supports the view of successful removed supply.


Quoting duyk20
Hi Dr.G
How this volume is going to be tested? Just tell me the situation for a valid test
  • #11,344
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:05am Feb 3, 2011 10:05am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I dont usualy like UJ however what the hell is this? Can it be this easy? I am not trading this just thought I would post it as it could be a nice trade.
It might be (that easy) .

I've been trading UJ for a few months now, using the KISS methods of S & R, but mostly trendlines and connecting peaks - UJ is excellent at adhering to them. It does channel bounces to the pip frequently - you just have to 'pick' the right channel. I don't bet huge amounts, and patience is of essence here. The overall trend is down, and overshoots are rare, occuring here and there due to news but it pretty much always returns.

The current ~20pip wick is pretty rare, although consistent on this H1 as a reversal point. I'm not in yet, but will likely enter a small lot around here (to get at least something) and maybe put another in around 81.85. It's peirced the light blue DTL, but been rejected IMO. I might target all of 20-30 pips, but if it's still heading down after 81.5, another 10+ pips is doable.

Of course, progress + time is key here, with the caveat of NFP in ~20hrs. The 20-40 pips should be doable today. Sorry for the marked up chart - it works for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-03_110312.png Size: 33 KB
  • #11,345
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:06am Feb 3, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
would be kind and respectful to read the mtm-book mentioned in here

any tiny spread down bar closing off the lows on low vol with the next bar up here supports the view of successful removed supply.
Thank you, I read already, just want to ask your opinion
I'll reread it again
  • #11,346
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:06am Feb 3, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
they try to build a cause. we had a first initial rally which by definition lacks of demand and got responded with some remaining supply kicking in. not massive but still average. result was a shakeout type bar on high vol. this vol has to be tested.

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/506...0203164007.png
this is a potential test but the next bar makes a lower low and has a surge in vol. therefore failed. we have not yet anything else to do than wait.


http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/4...0203170355.png
  • #11,347
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:07am Feb 3, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Beljevina
It might be (that easy) .

The current ~20pip wick is pretty rare, although consistent on this H1 as a reversal point. I'm not in yet, but will likely enter a small lot around here (to get at least something) and maybe put another in around 81.85. It's peirced the light blue DTL, but been rejected IMO. I might target all of 20-30 pips, but if it's still heading down after 81.5, another 10+ pips is doable.
Yes I know and this is what caught my eye, interesting-very interesting.
  • #11,348
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:10am Feb 3, 2011 10:10am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Yes I know and this is what caught my eye, interesting-very interesting.
Update, Shouldve coudlve wouldve.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujujupdixxx.jpg Size: 45 KB
  • #11,349
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:11am Feb 3, 2011 10:11am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
would be kind and respectful to read the mtm-book mentioned in here

any tiny spread down bar closing off the lows on low vol with the next bar up here supports the view of successful removed supply.
Dr. G, how would you interpret the 3 downbars circled? The first is a NS, or at least no selling pressure, yet the next bar doesn't close up. The 2nd bar show indescision, and the 3rd bar is a compressed bar on higher volume that doesn't break the previous low. To me the 3 combined looks like more strength coming in but still supply there so not yet ready and maybe still room to go further down. Your thoughts?
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #11,350
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:13am Feb 3, 2011 10:13am
Quoting Beljevina
It might be (that easy) .

Of course, progress + time is key here, with the caveat of NFP in ~20hrs. The 20-40 pips should be doable today. Sorry for the marked up chart - it works for me.
Done. Wow. Quickest 25 UJ pips in quite some time. Now bouncing off a lower TL/channel - not going to hold IMO, so letting rest ride for another 25+ pips.

Now, where's my EU & GU pop?
  • #11,351
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:14am Feb 3, 2011 10:14am
Quoting Beljevina
Done. Wow. Quickest 25 UJ pips in quite some time. Now bouncing off a lower TL/channel - not going to hold IMO, so letting rest ride for another 25+ pips.
I should've got in. Hesitation cost me big time today
Usd shows weakness here but Eur still have supply left, would spike up soon imh
  • #11,352
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:15am Feb 3, 2011 10:15am
Quoting tgwhbb
Dr. G, how would you interpret the 3 downbars circled? The first is a NS, or at least no selling pressure, yet the next bar doesn't close up. The 2nd bar show indescision, and the 3rd bar is a compressed bar on higher volume that doesn't break the previous low. To me the 3 combined looks like more strength coming in but still supply there so not yet ready and maybe still room to go further down. Your thoughts?
ok Dr. G, I see you answered my questions in your own post! Thx.
Change is the only constant
  • #11,353
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:19am Feb 3, 2011 10:19am
Quoting frankkn
You and me both dude, also 3 and 4 minute charts. I also really like 6h bars.
Hey frankkn and tgwhbb,

I do not know, but you might not be aware of the indicator below. Works great following this description by tonirai:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5879


Gruß

Wolfgang
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Period_Converter_Opt.mq4   15 KB | 525 downloads
  • #11,354
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:23am Feb 3, 2011 10:23am
Quoting tgwhbb
ok Dr. G, I see you answered my questions in your own post! Thx.
Dr. G, low vol test of the shakeout bar on the M15. Passed if this current M15 bar closes up. And in between the shakeout bar is a NS bar. Shakeout, no supply, and test of supply (if closes up). We could get a bounce up from this. With the momentum on the move however, i think i'm going to wait for a retrace back down to confirm the down move has stopped.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #11,355
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:25am Feb 3, 2011 10:25am
Quoting declaime
Hey frankkn and tgwhbb,

I do not know, but you might not be aware of the indicator below. Works great following this description by tonirai:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5879


Gruß

Wolfgang
Sweet! will check it out. Got a PM about the same indy from someone else as well so thanks for that.
Change is the only constant
  • #11,356
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:29am Feb 3, 2011 10:29am
bulls do their work. range compression of this bar combined with vol surge followed by a reversal

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/554...0203171724.png
  • #11,357
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:40am Feb 3, 2011 10:40am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
bulls do their work. range compression of this bar combined with vol surge followed by a reversal

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/554...0203171724.png
Another question for you! early stages of a reversal often shows contrary volume. In this case as the bulls push EU up, the volume is decreasing on the 5M since the reversal bar. We're still below the preliminary demand line so still no trading as far as i'm concerned, but would you enter a long after clearing and testing the prelim demand even if it was still not showing bullish volume?
Change is the only constant
  • #11,358
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:44am Feb 3, 2011 10:44am
the volume on such automatic retracement most likely will fall off since there is no professional support on the rallies. if you want to be sure, you should wait till the prelim bar is cleared, then you can assume to have a sh*tload of support below you. until this are is cleared, we might dip back down.

Quoting tgwhbb
Another question for you! early stages of a reversal often shows contrary volume. In this case as the bulls push EU up, the volume is decreasing on the 5M since the reversal bar. We're still below the preliminary demand line so still no trading as far as i'm concerned, but would you enter a long after clearing and testing the prelim demand even if it was still not showing bullish volume?
  • #11,359
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:54am Feb 3, 2011 10:54am
We are reaching preliminary support, common
  • #11,360
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:00am Feb 3, 2011 11:00am
Quoting duyk20
We are reaching preliminary support, common
and it looks like there are still sellers there...
Change is the only constant
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