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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,201
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:47am Feb 2, 2011 6:47am
Quoting pres78
I agree that 61.8 fib level is important to the bulls and I don't think it will go easily...
with NFP here..it CAN go easily.

So stop loss is neccessary..

PA is looking very mean(Candlestick)

Bullish divergence on 1 hr..Bearish divergence on 4 hr...

I personally wanted to see this in 1.3920-32.. to sell..BUT WHO KNOWS...Max price 1.3999 so stop should be a little above that

Downside target minimum should be 1.3494first
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #11,202
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:48am Feb 2, 2011 6:48am
Quoting duyk20
Hi Beljevina, what's your take on the coming ADP, yesterday you anticipate the news correctly.
I honestly don't know. This one isn't usually nearly as big a mover as NFP (coming Friday). I'm looking for EU to touch a TL and the key 1.3770 around 8pm (in 15m). So far EU's hit and bounced off the DPP @ 1.37865. If the news is good, USDJPY should rally, and it might be worth finding a short around 81.9, before it (potentially) gets sold into. EU might touch 1.374 or even 1.37/1.369 and presumably get bought. If the news is bad, the effect should be the opposite. Without seeing how the day will unfold today, I'd be trend leaning, so 1.39 at least.

But, I'd really not advise entering until at least 2 15 minute bars are painted, checking S&P futures now and how/if they change, and maybe even awaiting the equities open. It would suck to lose money - I'm about out of some GU shorts that popped on that UK news, and at least my EU shorts are coming through too.

On a side note, EU PA has sucked during London - maybe about 50 pips. I don't know how the big boys & banks do it - I long for the whip arounds or at least smooth and predictable movements of earlier this year and before.
  • #11,203
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:49am Feb 2, 2011 6:49am
Quoting Raza
with NFP here..it CAN go easily.

So stop loss is neccessary..

PA is looking very mean(Candlestick)
I agree that anything can and will happen in Forex.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,204
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:57am Feb 2, 2011 6:57am
Price has hit and closed above the trigger level off that 1hr WRB close (3788) from yesterday on a few 15 min bars now... They brought price here for a reason. Are they setting up for a rally from here or will they take a run down to 3740?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,205
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:57am Feb 2, 2011 6:57am
Quoting pres78
I agree that anything can and will happen in Forex.
Its price manipulation within the rules ...(referring to fibs with waves)

1.3745- 1.3738 are the critical levels.IMO
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #11,206
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:58am Feb 2, 2011 6:58am
For what its worth COT data seems to show that they are short EU, medium term
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
  • #11,207
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:01am Feb 2, 2011 7:01am
Quoting pres78
I agree that anything can and will happen in Forex.
And I think we may have a wild card in Egypt for the NY session - watching Al Jazeera live, and demonstrations appear to be getting out of hand ... Wall Street can choose to either care or not - you never know how it will affect risk, even though economically (and even oil wise, Suez canal wise) Egypt is really not a significant factor. In case you want Al Jazeera, it's here.
  • #11,208
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:07am Feb 2, 2011 7:07am
Quoting Beljevina
And I think we may have a wild card in Egypt for the NY session - watching Al Jazeera live, and demonstrations appear to be getting out of hand ... Wall Street can choose to either care or not - you never know how it will affect risk, even though economically (and even oil wise, Suez canal wise) Egypt is really not a significant factor. In case you want Al Jazeera, it's here.

I think that's an important point. Whilst Egypt isnt that important, its the whole momentum for change that seems to be gaining in the Arab world. This will effect the oil price and as we know, the oil price affects everything in the west.
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
  • #11,209
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:34am Feb 2, 2011 7:34am
Thing looks uncertain, eu is bullish for me...
  • #11,210
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:38am Feb 2, 2011 7:38am
Quoting duyk20
Thing looks uncertain, eu is bullish for me...
I do see buying in the last 8 or 9 15min bars... ADP release was a dud...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,211
  • Feb 2, 2011 7:47am Feb 2, 2011 7:47am
All I can see is this. Went short earlier, but got stopped out at BE. And boom it went down.

It looks as though EU broke out of the range down and is revisiting the break point. There's a bit of buying but so far it hasn't amounted to much. Staying out until I get a clearer view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,212
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:05am Feb 2, 2011 8:05am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Here you go. A trade I just took. Entered after nd/test @3836. SL .3859. Closed half for profit @3815 Moved another half to be +2.

Will make chart later.

Nice one. Thanks for your chart, 1pipperhour.
  • #11,213
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:34am Feb 2, 2011 8:34am
Let's see what happens now... on the 5min EURUSD the downbars have been closing off their lows on increasing volume. Last one looks like it might be stopping volume with the next bar closing up and right after that a NS... we are still under the Hull and PAL though...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,214
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:38am Feb 2, 2011 8:38am
Quoting pres78
Let's see what happens now... on the 5min EURUSD the downbars have been closing off their lows on increasing volume. Last one looks like it might be stopping volume with the next bar closing up and right after that a NS... we are still under the Hull and PAL though...
and the last complete 30M bar looks like stopping vol as well.
Change is the only constant
  • #11,215
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:45am Feb 2, 2011 8:45am
After our old friend ND at 11.00, it looks like the price wanna touch the virgin POC of yesterday at 1.3722
  • #11,216
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:47am Feb 2, 2011 8:47am
Quoting alexm
After our old friend ND at 11.00, it looks like the price wanna touch the virgin POC of yesterday at 1.3722
ND on which TF?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,217
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:51am Feb 2, 2011 8:51am
Quoting pres78
ND on which TF?
1 hr chart brader, I'm tired looking at 5 min.
  • #11,218
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:55am Feb 2, 2011 8:55am
eur imho is a long off 3790
  • #11,219
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:55am Feb 2, 2011 8:55am
Quoting alexm
1 hr chart brader, I'm tired looking at 5 min.
Can you post a chart? I don't see a ND on my charts.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,220
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:04am Feb 2, 2011 9:04am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
eur imho is a long off 3790
There was a nice NS with it's high at 3791 but Hull and PAL's are still not in agreement. What to do... when in doubt best to stay out.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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