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vsa with Malcolm

  • #11,141
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:31pm Feb 1, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting juhanimi
GU

Monday daily was with low volume, so what we think about that?
No sellers left or SM is not intrested higher prices?
Only now, after Tue, can see GU price went up on a good range on Tue.
This I take it that Alpari Demo volume, even though not great, still usable, as it was above average vol on Mon showing demand still there.

Another point is that looking at Daily volume over last few months for GU
either on Netdania or Alpari, shows that Mon volume is usually relatively low for the week, so harder to gauge the effect from Fri to Mon.

The way I could gauge was actually comparing Mon volume to previous Mon volumes, and the price bars for those Fri and Mon.
  • #11,142
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:39pm Feb 1, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting pres78
Looking at the EURUSD I am now also seeing 3780-3790 as an area of interest today if price gets back into this area. This for me (with my most likely inaccurate broker volume data) is the close of my highest volume 1hr wide range bar that started with that shake out... This is coincidentally enough the daily pivot area also. A nice long set-up (or short if we get back below) in this area would be another great entry IMHO, since price is a long ways from that 3740 fib level ATM (which for me corresponds with that nice 15min shake out bars close at...

I want EUR/USD rockets from here 1.3830 straight to 1.4 without looking back.

Let's see what happens.
  • #11,143
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:54pm Feb 1, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting pres78
Yeah I am not sure how much 1min signals can be trusted but it worked out this time for me.
Wow 1-min. And 5-min already too fast for me.

I did test out the Ticks chart on Netdania for EU yesterday, the Ticks just look like jagged teeth and roller coaster, unsure whether it is like a 1-min chart or how to control the number of Ticks.
Wondering how to trade a Tick chart.

Well done in coming up with your new methods.
Would be good to see your further results on this 1-min outlook.
  • #11,144
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:59pm Feb 1, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting foxybunny
Wow 1-min. And 5-min already too fast for me.

I did test out the Ticks chart on Netdania for EU yesterday, the Ticks just look like jagged teeth and roller coaster, unsure whether it is like a 1-min chart or how to control the number of Ticks.
Wondering how to trade a Tick chart.

Well done in coming up with your new methods.
Would be good to see your further results on this 1-min outlook.
Will be keeping an eye on it over the next weeks to see if it is valid or if I just got lucky.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #11,145
  • Feb 1, 2011 7:09pm Feb 1, 2011 7:09pm
Because price rockets up in yesterday move and the volatility after news, so I think using 1m is reasonable but for a steady move, I would love to see ND and NS in 5m
  • #11,146
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:34pm Feb 1, 2011 8:34pm
aggghhhh here we go with 1 min and 5 min again

here is my trade for today..was unsure of direction but knew we were in middle of days range .... when I got that shake out noted by vertical line the 80 pip trade was a SIMPLE .. placed trade , stop 1.3700 , tp 1.3840 ( upper range limit for day) .. does not get simpler than this

I am hoping we get testing 1.3790 as i have a buy limit sitting there , if not I will see what pa look like in the morning

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu69.png Size: 208 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,147
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:35pm Feb 1, 2011 8:35pm
same principle as eu however the top of that ultra high volume bar was tested in asia ....6130 to 6180 , for 50 pip....

once you have a good idea on the destination all you have to do is plan the journey


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu70.png Size: 145 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,148
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:57pm Feb 1, 2011 8:57pm
pres78's post on his use of M1 charts was quite interesting, so i decided to try and paper trade while using the M1. Quite interesting indeed as i discovered the makings of a top reversal...

Weakness was starting to show on the M5 and M15 in the form of an upthrust on M5 at 3:30GMT, and EORM on M15 at 3:45 GMT (small form of EORM, compressed spread on increased volume).

On the M1 we see:
1. 3:33 GMT: wide spread up on highest volume to date = possible sellers
2. 3:34 GMT: next bar down on high volume = sellers confirmed. The volume here is excessively high IMO and I found it suspect which lead me to continue watching the M1. After this bar our M5 UT is formed
3. 3:37 GMT no supply bar - not yet ready to go down
4. 3:39 GMT shakeout - confirms not ready to go down yet
5. 3:48 GMT test of the shakeout/NS area followed by doji, still not time to go down as is evident by the making of a new high at 3:55
6. 4:01 GMT This is where the reversal is confirmed. EORM type bar - compressed spread on high volume - after a UT like bar that makes a lower high and in the right place - at the close of bar #1 (the high of the 5M UT)

thought i'd share that as i found it interesting to watch a reversal take place on the M1, plus i can't sleep
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M1 2011-02-01 at 11.24.32 PM.png Size: 69 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #11,149
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:00pm Feb 1, 2011 9:00pm
Was watching this base on 1.613 hold, which was really surprising given that looks like lots of selling into that last rise to 1.615 and leaving the tallest volume bar on this M5 - normally, that'd be a sure fire sign of heading down to pick up more strength.

I of course did not buy on the way up given there are a few NDs on the way, but grabbed this short into a 1.617 resistance area and channel overshoot. Was 20 pips a bit ago, and I'm reading of offers in this zone, so Murphy's Law tells me I will end up with too little, so I am scaling out bit by bit. Would be nice for Frankie to get us back to 1.61/608, but they've been a complete let down lately IMO!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-01_235858.png Size: 12 KB
  • #11,150
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:08pm Feb 1, 2011 9:08pm
Quoting foxybunny
Only now, after Tue, can see GU price went up on a good range on Tue.
This I take it that Alpari Demo volume, even though not great, still usable, as it was above average vol on Mon showing demand still there.

Another point is that looking at Daily volume over last few months for GU
either on Netdania or Alpari, shows that Mon volume is usually relatively low for the week, so harder to gauge the effect from Fri to Mon.

The way I could gauge was actually comparing Mon volume to previous Mon volumes, and the price bars for those Fri and Mon.
Good point foxybunny, I was just looking that it was lowest vol in 10 days. and I get little worried, because I had bullish thoughts because friday looked like a test.
And I did not said 31 wins, I said 31 trades, no losses, because 4 trades was BE and 3 was +1, and not so many pips average trade, maybe something like 25-30 pips.
Just started to move SL reallly fast to BE, because in this thread some guy said something about what Wycoff said...
something like that price should response immediatly or something has happened.
  • #11,151
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:11pm Feb 1, 2011 9:11pm
Beljevina, I think just testing that break up.
  • #11,152
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:12pm Feb 1, 2011 9:12pm
Quoting juhanimi
Beljevina, I think just testing that break up.
Yeah, barely got more than single digit pips. Oh well.
  • #11,153
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:37pm Feb 1, 2011 9:37pm
Yes, but no losses B, that`s good too.
Test was little bit too high vol and TW said that it will usually come back to test again. I think that is one of the best thing to know.
  • #11,154
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:48pm Feb 1, 2011 9:48pm
ok here we go ..

what is trend on gu and eu on a 15 and 30 ? selling or buying?

what is safer , look for buys on a 1 min or sells ?

just food for thought...

one thing that has kept me on right side of markjet nearly all january is play the trend on the higher time frames. Other than my 200 pip loss monday i have been very happy buying all dips gu and eu. I let news get better of me even though the trend on daily had not changed yet

so if trading 5 and 1 min charts trade with the 15 and 30 m trends.... in the long run you will be better off
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,155
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:54pm Feb 1, 2011 9:54pm
Mal

What you think about GU daily, do we break that old top on the left?
  • #11,156
  • Feb 1, 2011 9:59pm Feb 1, 2011 9:59pm
I am very bull eu and gu to be honest BUT nothing moves in a straight line.

play the waves , but yes i think some major shit is coming down for usd .... I am still thinking 1.57 eu on weekly

on the note of 5 min chart .... here is very clear tests ... when 30 and 15 min are in uptrend .. 100% sure money makers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu72.png Size: 141 KB






Quoting juhanimi
Mal

What you think about GU daily, do we break that old top on the left?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #11,157
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:04pm Feb 1, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am very bull eu and gu to be honest BUT nothing moves in a straight line.

play the waves , but yes i think some major shit is coming down for usd .... I am still thinking 1.57 eu on weekly

on the note of 5 min chart .... here is very clear tests ... when 30 and 15 min are in uptrend .. 100% sure money makers

Attachment
E/U..

if it breaks 1.3922..... 1.3732 will become support..

if it breaks 1.3922... it will get Bullish beyond limits..

so watch for this level a day before or on NFP... if broken may take out the last high @1.4281.... and G/U above 1.6300...IMO...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #11,158
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:27pm Feb 1, 2011 10:27pm
Malcolmb, you stay during london open today? I need your judgement, yesterday was a sad day for me
  • #11,159
  • Feb 1, 2011 10:35pm Feb 1, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting Beljevina
Yeah, barely got more than single digit pips. Oh well.
Now there was NS in same level and break of that, lets see.
  • #11,160
  • Feb 1, 2011 11:21pm Feb 1, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting juhanimi
Good point foxybunny, I was just looking that it was lowest vol in 10 days. and I get little worried, because I had bullish thoughts because friday looked like a test.
And I did not said 31 wins, I said 31 trades, no losses, because 4 trades was BE and 3 was +1, and not so many pips average trade, maybe something like 25-30 pips.
Just started to move SL reallly fast to BE, because in this thread some guy said something about what Wycoff said...
something like that price should response immediatly or something has happened.
31 trades, no loss, is excellent.
Your avg pips 25-30 is good.

There is a fine line of when we move to BE.
Do fast will eliminate losses, and that will also eliminate bigger wins.

Sometimes I will wait till 50pips profit or even 100pips profit before moving to BE.

Have not read much on Wycoff, so unaware of his comments.
Still need to find more reliable info on Wycoff and the time to look at it.

Your skill must be improving with having minimal SL on those 31 trades, and move to BE fast.
A note to you is just let at least One earlier position run longer to a few hundreds pips, then you really will see a bigger impact on your results.
Then you must decide when to exit the bigger profits, that part is more difficult. Another balancing act there.
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