Trend Lines Don't Work

Ooops....I meant to say your "anti-anti-trend line methodology"......my bad!!!!

Of course trendlines work. Get the GBPUSD. Daily chart as that is the one I trade.

Draw trendline from 1.6286 to 1.5620. There is so much respect for that line it is unbelievable.

Drawing the line from just part way would have shown you that we expected the downward move at 1.5891 on 13th December 2010. It was also a 50.0 fibonacci level.

Surely that alone is enough evidence of the strength of trendlines.

adal and ha pattern good stuff

although i do not understand the letter trading method or the 123 one,
im looking in asia now,the volume increased on up moves,on down moves it slowed,(1m) then i saw 2 dojis was thinking of shorting it,dojis on top,but volume said no,and i need 3 or more dojis to short
so that tells it,that theres no signle method thats right

just look at the obvious volume,trendlines or wateva,for ones who specialise with it they work,for ones who dont use it much ,they dont
it really depends

as scott says it just shows u the ascending/descending bottoms/tops

kind of like support/resistance in a moving market

lol,this thread is a thread like no other

At least it's a good read. To each their own I say. Bottom line is your own trading account tells you weather to continue doing what your doing or start looking for help.

Well I knew this would be a thread like no other.. because I don't care to go against saying all the same safely spoken words to get pretty vouches personally

but using the volume is brilliant my friend.. I have found that to be more useful then anything IMHO

for patterns.. the only thing I like is seeing heavy volume form a hammer a few times on a forming candle.. it can close not looking like a hammer thats fine.. but to see buying pressure really digging in.. especially on top of the longterm direction is about the only one I look for at times

but in a nut shell your the first on this thread to bring up volume which is exactly what leads me to ignore trend lines.. they are a major factor as to why I need not consult them.. and can even see ahead of a trend lines to a degree


well even tho I get the impression for earlier post you may not exactly like me.. and even if we share different views.. you sound like one of the wiser traders on FF IMO.. in other words you put some thought into your actions

If I wanted to be really honest I would say there is probably 2-5% of good traders on FF.. and they mostly keep there mouth shut, talk through private messages, or offer little truly insightful advice at times

its mostly losing traders teaching others how to lose.. I am at the point where I rarely visit FF because of this..

and a few days ago I decided since I didn't care I would post this thread on a topic I feel strongly about.. knowing I would be met with resistance I didn't care since I could care less if I left this site all together

for me.. personally.. FF accelerated my growth as a trader.. but now it stunts my growth.. for me the biggest realization was watching myself make stupid posts.. then I made some decent ones.. then some statistical ones.. then I watched others making the same losing advice to others.. and I realized how dumb I was.. and after a while of not posting.. here I am..


now I told you the above to show you I'm not some internet troll.. and that I do have an honest reason for posting this thread.. its not so much that I care to help others.. its mostly because I get to confirm my own concepts(i know I'm a jerk right).. and any hidden treasure I may point out... almost no one on FF will ever be able to figure it out the map.. even after pointing to it!! and even if they do find it.. they wouldn't know how to find the buyers and etc.. this is just an example to show how most just want mommy and daddy to do it all for them.. to be spoiled and have everything given to them.. otherwise they aint going to shovel to make that money. I know I sure would.. but I've gotten over this.. tho it took a few years

lol,ur first posts were agressive at the beggining,
wat do u expect man
no hates u,
lol


btw,thanks for my friends on vsa thread and yaed who led me to the m1 and nice volume indi
i dont know where i would be now,if it wasnt for yaed, and his 1m,would still be looking at 1h ,lol 10 bars a day,
but 1m is the same thing as the 1h,if u know to analyse the markets

am i experienced u can say so,4 years of experience reading books & trading stocks,2 years of fx live,2 blown accounts,
i dont see how anyone can learn to trade without blowing a couple of good accounts,to get the experience needed

this might not be with the topic,but choosing the right broker to suit ur trading style really matters

like i started trading because i saw that prices were being maniulated and thought i could profit from it
went to forex.com(they didnt have volume) and so i traded ups and downs,trying to figure out how it all works,then i lost 250,changed to etoro ,this time i forgot about volume,they didnt provide it either,so i chased feelings of the market,if theres more bullishness i would buy and more bearness sell,but after 2 years,here im with many great traders that have shown me how to trade volume the right way,i probbably would have lost money in the beggining anyway
so thanks for sharing eevryone ,without cooperation where would we humans be now

starting this thread was actually a pretty good idea
i learned stuff as well
u went a bit too agressive at the begining,but if u didnt no one would post here
lol
it kind of works both way

interesting the prices went to the same levels before the big buy hype
i think that shows the true price right now

exited with 5 pips

"Michael always says 'K-I-S-S, Keep it simple, stupid.' Great advice, hurts my feelings every time."

They are working for me to catch tops and bottoms with confirmation.

Price is all subjective meaning you are entering based on probabilities. With the probability of the setup.

What probability? the probability that, price = mx + b ?


what is the underlying reason that trend lines pick tops and bottoms for you?


Its always easier to make sense of what happened after the fact with a pretty trend line, rather then as its happening

CNBC: "well the reason the EUR/USD jumped up 500 points today was because it met up with one of its trend lines and simply that.. back to you jim"

u really dont like trendlines ny dont u

I don't like conspiracy theories either..

it just seems a little too coincidental to say trend lines will occur and foresee terrorists flying planes into buildings

or that it can predict the revolution of Egypt


and thats one argument some make.. for those who don't make that argument..

but with to take a more "these are edges".. I don't see any edge..

Goods said they help him pick tops and bottoms.. and thats his edge.. but maybe I'm the only one who views watching price drop x amount of pips and then jumps in on the bandwagon once it breaks a trend line is not an edge..

to me an edge is knowing in advance when price is going to drop x amount of pips.. not waiting for it to do so.. then calling it an edge when they have no awareness how much farther price will go.. just saying price must continue downward because it broke a trend line..


or even calling trend lines an edge when in so many cases you cannot draw a trend line until a certain point in the future when there is a point for you to connect the dots..


and ontop of all this.. they do it blindly with no reasoning or understanding why they do it.. its funny that drawing 30-40 lines on a chart and confirming they help you pick tops and bottoms when it bounces or breaks on of those lines...


if you want to talk probabilities.. what are the probabilities that even 5-10 random lines on a chart.. price will bounce off and break through them... very high probabilities... the more you draw the higher probability you will see this happen and confirm for yourself price interacts special around these points...

until ofcourse you need to draw more lines to convince yourself.. because the old ones stoped working.. but you have no understanding why that is either.. nor a need to question..


and LOL.. I'm glad you enjoyed my CNBC broadcast.. "Today terrorist used planes to fly into buildings.. the latest reports confirm the USD / IQD were in fact breaking trend lines which is more confirmation foreseeing this tragedy"

I don't want to over exaggerate anything.. that one was for mostly fun with some truth in it

i dont like conspiracy theories either
but i like fact theories

theories which are fact only ,and show real proof of evidence no bull

the only guys that actually know when "terrorists "are gaonna bomb soemthing
are the ones that create it :cia,nsa,......theres a long list of them
and these days they even admit it

Trend Lines are great as they do work for me and many others. For one to think that you have to sort of force they to even look like they work which indirectly tricks your subconcious mind into believing that they work is total nonsense. If you understand how the market moves, you know that for example, for a down trend to be valid, you have Lower Lows and Lower Highs. As long as the market is moving in the direction of the Down Trend Line (valid after at least 2 to 3 Lower high points are connected together) you know that you are in a downtrend. Now the longer the downtrend, the stronger it is. So there a high chance that when the market retraces and hit the DownTrend Line, it will resist and bounce off to continue the downtrend. This is the point where more sellers than buyers refuses to allow the buyers to raise price higher. When price retraces in the downtrend, it doesn't neccessarily have to retrace all the way back up towards the line. It could retrace a bit and move back down with the trend before it even reaches the downtrend line.

In close, you should do a bit more studying of the market and see why you disagree. Forums are a great way to get inputs and ideas from others obviously. Another thing you may want to do is study seasoned professionals to see how this stradegy works for them. I've only be doing Forex since August, faithfully September and I'd came a very long ways. Good luck with your venture. And understand that, things will work if you allow them to work. In this line of business, there's no need to try to reinvent the wheel. Proof is in the pudding that there are many ways to approach the market to be successful. You just got to find what works for you.

Disclaimer: Everything I say takes us back to forex being opinion based market.. so Its just me... and I could be wrong.. and when I say they don't work thats my opinion.. and not something that needs be twisted pointlessly into "oh they don't work for you.." I can draw then just as good as you.. trust me...

but heres what you asked (and the first to ask.. amazing it took this long.. see people usually don't care..) anyways


One sentence : The Professionals want to trade there clients money at the best price.

thats one sentence, trend lines IMO are a byproduct of the best price.. and often you will find trend lines don't offer the best price and thats when things shift up and down and shake out the trend line followers


Thanks for asking tho.. I best be on my way for the day however

unsubscribed

[quote=newyear498;4368791]One sentence : The Professionals want to trade there clients money at the best price.
/quote]

I've been checking back from time to time, waiting for this very moment -- LOL. Wow! Can't wait for this thread to play out.