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Trend Breakout/Breakdown Method

  • #21
  • Jan 11, 2011 8:57am Jan 11, 2011 8:57am
Quoting ronaldksmmg
LOL!! Drawing trendlines is an art. Seems like not many people trust the power of trendlines. Trendlines take away the complex and complicated indicators which is often messy and difficult to understand. That's why the 95% loses $$ and the 5% make it.
But the sad truth is almost all newbies look for indicators to tell them to pull the trigger. Most of them not interested in PA or trendlines as both are too simple and so call "naked". Most of them believe the more complicated the system is (involving many indicators) the more reliable it is.

Just my observations.

福 子 Victor V
  • #22
  • Jan 12, 2011 4:26am Jan 12, 2011 4:26am
Quoting camvcvoo
But the sad truth is almost all newbies look for indicators to tell them to pull the trigger. Most of them not interested in PA or trendlines as both are too simple and so call "naked". Most of them believe the more complicated the system is (involving many indicators) the more reliable it is.

Just my observations.

This i totally concur with you. I guess it's because its human nature to learn the easy way out and the more guidance there is, the better. I still think that the best way to learn is to lose and gain experience slowly. There is no free lunch in this world.
  • #23
  • Jan 13, 2011 12:17am Jan 13, 2011 12:17am
When determining a trend, a trendline is often used to help traders enter or stay in a trade. The mistake is this: Staying in a trade after your trendline is broken, and drawing in a new, flatter trendline. (Flatter trendlines are bad, in both up and down trends). New traders will often be resistant to taking a loss, so giving the trade "just a little more room," hoping it comes back, is a fundamental mistake. If your reason for being in a trade is no longer valid, your job is to take the small loss and move on to the next trade. It doesn't matter if your reason is a supply or demand level, a trendline, or anything - if it's no longer valid, it is time to exit.
  • #24
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:09am Jan 13, 2011 10:09am
Quoting maknil
When determining a trend, a trendline is often used to help traders...
Nuff said!
  • #25
  • Jan 27, 2011 10:27am Jan 27, 2011 10:27am
Who trades the dow here?
  • #26
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:32pm Jan 31, 2011 1:32pm
ronald,

Just came upon your nice trendline thread & thought I would weigh in my two cent. Once you get in some chart time practicing drawing the trendlines it will become second nature just as it is second nature for some to throw on the RSI or any of the other indicators that are floating around, but one the keys as you said is connecting as many points as you can.

The higher time frames are no doubt the starting point, but lower should be factored in as well. For me the Daily, 1H & 15M are used. My trading style is short term, so the 15M is my main chart.

New traders will be slow to join this thread because it is not offering an array of brightly colored squiggly indicators, but is a clear cut & simple (once you learn to draw the lines) way of trading price action.

I wish you the best with this thread as it is offering a clear cut way of trading price action.
_________________________
  • #27
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:05pm Jan 31, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting acetrader
ronald,

Just came upon your nice trendline thread & thought I would weigh in my two cent. Once you get in some chart time practicing drawing the trendlines it will become second nature just as it is second nature for some to throw on the RSI or any of the other indicators that are floating around, but one the keys as you said is connecting as many points as you can.

The higher time frames are no doubt the starting point, but lower should be factored in as well. For me the Daily, 1H & 15M are used. My trading style is short term, so the 15M...
hi all, i have a hour or so to kill (bored at work lol) and came across this thread and trend lines, i do use them but not no expert and certainally need practise or a thread to get my skills up, and if theres one thing i love about FOREX is that u can learn something new everday!

So here's a go at it, i basically use the 4H (and 2H) trends and follow them, in my first chart u can see the EU is clearly on a 4H UP trend, so if i were to switch to 15min chart each day i would do the following right:

chart for 24.01.11:

i would use the trend from open to when u start to look at charts which is usualy around 7am, as soon as a 15min candle the one trend line clearly then entry point, here would be SELL , SL would be adjusted accordingly and i could await for the upper trend line to be broken but just showing as an example, i only usually do one trade per day.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4H.JPG Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EH 15MIN 24.01.JPG Size: 72 KB
  • #28
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:08pm Jan 31, 2011 2:08pm
25.01.11 - here again bottom TL is broken so a SELL

26.01.11 - here top TL broken for a BUY but as u can see price quickly goes back to trend and channel
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EH 15MIN 25.01.JPG Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EH 15MIN 26.01.JPG Size: 73 KB
  • #29
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:10pm Jan 31, 2011 2:10pm
27.01.11 - lower TL broken, again price shoots back up to channel and then goes over upper TL

28.01.11 - here lower TL broken, quickly goes back up and then dives again
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EH 15MIN 27.01.JPG Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EH 15MIN 28.01.JPG Size: 72 KB
  • #30
  • Jan 31, 2011 2:16pm Jan 31, 2011 2:16pm
30.01.11 (TODAY) - here a clear up channel was present so should have followed the trend for a BUY, any time there is a clear up/down channel always follow it right?

I think last weeks 15min charts weren;t too helpful as it was a ranging week on EU anyway, but hey best to do this on ANY weekchart rather than pick the easy ones. am sure one can pickup pips using this basic method (with a lot of practise), choosing a suitable SL would be the major step i think as too low a one would always knock u out, whereas a larger one could lead to larger losses as these charts i posted some show clear reversals, but then again it;s not how much u make, but how little u lose! or make a little each time , it all adds up and those big one;s will come along every now and then right!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EH 15MIN 30.01.JPG Size: 72 KB
  • #31
  • Feb 1, 2011 1:56am Feb 1, 2011 1:56am
Quoting acetrader
ronald,

Just came upon your nice trendline thread & thought I would weigh in my two cent. Once you get in some chart time practicing drawing the trendlines it will become second nature just as it is second nature for some to throw on the RSI or any of the other indicators that are floating around, but one the keys as you said is connecting as many points as you can.

The higher time frames are no doubt the starting point, but lower should be factored in as well. For me the Daily, 1H & 15M are used. My trading style is short term, so the 15M...
Thanks acetrader! I normally trade with the bigger time frame and therefore, i use the daily charts more than anything else. The smaller time frame like the 15min 5min, etc..It is for me to see where the big operators are buying/selling. It is used to determine my entry points. However, to be frank, daily charts is good enough.

These days, trend lines act as a guide to me and i trade more in tandem with the big operators. If they are buying, i buy, if they are selling i sell. Simple as that. But nevertheless, trendlines are very important in mkaing decision as for what the big operators are trying to achieve.

Ronald K
  • #32
  • Feb 1, 2011 2:00am Feb 1, 2011 2:00am
Quoting gh0stjpy
25.01.11 - here again bottom TL is broken so a SELL

26.01.11 - here top TL broken for a BUY but as u can see price quickly goes back to trend and channel
I dont agree with your point of view, ur entry and exit. It will make you $ but it wont make you rich. However, everyone has their point of view, else there wont be a market created with sellers and buyers.
  • #33
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:33pm Feb 4, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting ronaldksmmg
I dont agree with your point of view, ur entry and exit. It will make you $ but it wont make you rich. However, everyone has their point of view, else there wont be a market created with sellers and buyers.
any suggestions how what i could do to improve my method?
  • #34
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:32am Feb 5, 2011 4:32am
Quoting gh0stjpy
any suggestions how what i could do to improve my method?
There is an attachment about trendlines in this thread. You can download it, read and practice it.
  • #35
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:20am Mar 18, 2011 5:20am
Anyone trade indexes here. I recently started trading indexes and find that it is exhilarating. Anyone wanna exchange pointers?
  • #36
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:16am Aug 17, 2011 11:16am
I came up with a new theory called k wave and k mind. Check out my blog!
  • #37
  • Aug 18, 2011 11:48am Aug 18, 2011 11:48am
managed to catch the high in STI today and bring this monster down! Check out my blog now.
  • #38
  • Last Post: Feb 8, 2014 11:21pm Feb 8, 2014 11:21pm
personally , i found the breakout strategy is the most reliable one with some help of the harmonic patterns if they were found during the breakout , many articles talking about that there will be either a 1) false breakout ( meaning the candle passed the trend but didn't close above/below it or 2) a breakout where the price will penetrate the trend in order to the price to form a new channel trend line , but actually there is a third rule which in my opinion is the most common where the the price make a breakout and the candle close outside that trend & goes almost 30 to 200 pips usually ( depending on what chart time you are) and then goes back to the initial channel trend .
you may think that my trend wasn't correctly drawn , that is possible but how said the trend channel has already completed yet ?
????
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